Search results for "Unit root"
showing 2 items of 22 documents
External sustainability in Spanish economy: bubbles and crises, 1970–2020
2023
We address the issue of the sustainability Spain’s exter-nal debt, using data for the period 1970–2020. To detect episodes of potentially explosive behavior of the Spanish net foreign assets over GDP ratio and the current account balance over GDP ratio, as well as episodes of external adjustments over this long period, we employ a recursive unit root test approach. Our empirical analysis leads us to conclude that there is some evidence of bubbles in the ratio between Spanish net foreign assets and the GDP. In contrast, the evidence that the ratio between the Spanish current account balance and the GDP had explosive subperiods is very weak. The episode of explosive behavior identified in the…
Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: the case of Spanish public debt
2023
In this paper the dynamics of the Spanish public debt-GDP ratio is analysed during the period 1850–2021. We use recent procedures to test for explosive bubbles in the presence under time- varying volatility (Harvey et al., 2016; Harvey et al., 2019, 2020; Kurozumi et al., 2022) in order to test the explosive behavior of Spanish public debt over this long period. We extend previous analysis of Esteve and Prats (2022) where assume constant unconditional volatility in the underlying error process.