Search results for "Unobservable"
showing 10 items of 17 documents
The effect of physical activity on long-term income.
2013
Abstract Empirical evidence for the direct effects of physical activities on long-term labor market outcomes is limited. This state of affairs is surprising, because there is a growing amount of support on the positive effects of physical activities on health on the one hand and on the effects of good health on labor market outcomes on the other hand. We examine the long-term income effects of physical activity using a large sample ( N = 5042) of male twins from Finland (Older Finnish Twin Cohort Study, 1975, 1981, 1990), matched to detailed register-based income data (Finnish Longitudinal Employer-Employee Data, 1990–2004). Our primary income measure is calculated over a fifteen-year peri…
Testing For Asymmetric Information In Insurance Markets With Unobservable Types
2008
In two important recent papers, Finkelstein and McGarry [25] and Finkelstein and Poterba [28] propose a new test for asymmetric information in insurance markets that considers explicitly unobserved heterogeneity in insurance demand. In this paper we propose an alternative implementation of the Finkelstein-McGarry-Poterba test based on the identification of unobservable types by use of finite mixture models. The actual implementation of our test follows some recent advances on marginal modelling as applied to latent class analysis; formal testing procedures for the null of asymmetric information and for the hypothesis that private information is indeed multidimensional can be performed by im…
Aggregate Behavior and Microdata
2004
Abstract It is shown how one can effectively use microdata in modelling the change over time in an aggregate (e.g. mean consumption expenditure) of a large and heterogeneous population. The starting point of our aggregation analysis is a specification of explanatory variables on the micro-level. Typically, some of these explanatory variables are observable and others are unobservable. Based on certain hypotheses on the evolution over time of the joint distributions across the population of these explanatory variables we derive a decomposition of the change in the aggregate which allows a partial analysis: to isolate and to quantify the effect of a change in the observable explanatory variab…
The dynamic interdependence in the demand of primary and emergency secondary care: A hidden Markov approach
2021
This paper develops an extension of the class of finite mixture models for longitudinal count data to the bivariate case by using a trivariate reduction technique and a hidden Markov chain approach. The model allows for disentangling unobservable time-varying heterogeneity from the dynamic effect of utilisation of primary and secondary care and measuring their potential substitution effect. Three points of supports adequately describe the distribution of the latent states suggesting the existence of three profiles of low, medium and high users who shows persistency in their behaviour, but not permanence as some switch to their neighbour's profile.
The welfare cost of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets
2016
We consider the welfare loss of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets, which results when private information or regulatory constraints prevent insurance companies to set premiums reflecting expected costs. We propose a methodology which uses survey data to measure this welfare loss. After identifying some “types” which determine expected risk and insurance demand, we derive the key factors defining the demand and cost functions in each market induced by these unobservable types. These are used to quantify the efficiency costs of unpriced heterogeneity. We apply our methods to the US Long-Term Care and Medigap insurance markets, where we find that unpriced heterogeneity causes substan…
The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest
2020
Abstract This paper analyses the role of peaceful and violent protest in the democratization process. We interpret the democratization process as a sequence of phases so as to allow citizens' and elites' preferences for democracy to vary according to the particular phase that a country is experiencing. By doing so we jointly model the probability of protest and of moving through different phases of democracy taking into account time-constant and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity. In particular, we develop a multivariate finite mixture model that introduces a latent variable to capture unobservable factors. On a sample of 171 countries from 1971 to 2010, we provide evidence that protest …
An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Perceived Inequality
2017
Perception of inequality is important for the analysis of individuals' motivations and decisions and for policy assessment. Despite the broad range of analytic gains that it grants, our knowledge about measurement and determinants of perception of inequality is still limited, since it is intrinsically unobservable, multidimensional, and essentially contested. Using a novel econometric approach, we study how observable individual characteristics affect the joint distribution of a set of indicators of perceived inequality in specific domains. Using data from the International Social Survey Programme, we shed light on the associations among these indicators and how they are affected by covaria…
Is traditional teaching really all that bad? A within-student between-subject approach
2011
Abstract Recent studies conclude that teachers are important for student learning but it remains uncertain what actually determines effective teaching. This study directly peers into the black box of educational production by investigating the relationship between lecture style teaching and student achievement. Based on matched student–teacher data for the US, the estimation strategy exploits between-subject variation to control for unobserved student traits. Results indicate that traditional lecture style teaching is associated with significantly higher student achievement. No support for detrimental effects of lecture style teaching can be found even when evaluating possible selection bia…
Calculating Hedonic Price Indices with Unobserved Product Attributes: An Application to the UK Car Market
2006
We show that hedonic price indices that omit model-specific unobservable product attributes are subject to considerable bias. We utilize a complete panel of new car versions marketed in the UK over 1971–98 which incorporates over 100 observable product characteristics, sales weighting to capture the distribution of purchases across models, and model-specific fixed effects to account for unobservable characteristics. We find that quality-adjusted prices obtained from hedonic regressions that do not account for unobservable characteristics exhibit a severe downward bias. We also show that quality-adjusted prices exhibit distinct sub-market differences having increased in ‘mass production’ seg…
Mixture Hidden Markov Models for Sequence Data: The seqHMM Package in R
2019
Sequence analysis is being more and more widely used for the analysis of social sequences and other multivariate categorical time series data. However, it is often complex to describe, visualize, and compare large sequence data, especially when there are multiple parallel sequences per subject. Hidden (latent) Markov models (HMMs) are able to detect underlying latent structures and they can be used in various longitudinal settings: to account for measurement error, to detect unobservable states, or to compress information across several types of observations. Extending to mixture hidden Markov models (MHMMs) allows clustering data into homogeneous subsets, with or without external covariate…