Search results for "Volatility risk"
showing 10 items of 21 documents
On the Link Between Volatility and Growth
2011
A model of growth with endogenous innovation and distortionary taxes is presented. Since innovation is the only source of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ in their volatility and growth process. We obtain analytical measures of macro volatility based on cyclical output and on output growth rates for plausible parametric restrictions. This analysis implies that controls for taxes should be included in the standard growth-volatility regressions. Our estimates show that the conventional Ramey-Ramey coefficient is af…
Forecasting the Size Premium Over Different Horizons
2011
In this paper, we provide evidence that the small stock premium is predictable both in-sample and out-of-sample through the use of a set of lagged macroeconomic variables. We find that it is possible to forecast the size premium over time horizons that range from one month to one year. We demonstrate that the predictability of the size premium allows a portfolio manager to generate an economically and statistically significant active alpha.
Another Look at Value and Momentum: Volatility Spillovers
2017
This paper examines volatility interdependencies between value and momentum returns. Using U.S. data over the period 1926-2015, we document persistent periods of low and high volatility spillovers between value and momentum strategies. Moreover, we find that the intensity of the volatility spillovers may change substantially in very short periods of time and that these shifts in spillover intensity can be linked to prominent economic events and financial market turmoil. Our results further demonstrate that value returns increase and momentum returns decrease monotonically with increasing volatility spillovers between the two strategies. Given this linkage between spillover intensity and ret…
The stabilizing effect of volatility in financial markets
2017
In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To investigate this surprising feature, here we propose using the mean first hitting time, i.e. the average time a stock return takes to undergo for the first time a large negative or positive variation, as an indicator of price stability, and relate this to a standard measure of volatility. In an empirical analysis of daily returns for $1071$ stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange, we find that this measure of stability displays nonmonotonic behavior, …
A Scenario Simulation Model of Stock's Volatility Based on a Stationary Markovian Process
2013
In this paper we discuss univariate statistical properties of volatility. We present a parsimonious univariate model that well reproduces two stylized facts of volatility: the power-law decay of the volatility probability density function with exponent α and the power-law decay of the autocorrelation function with exponent β. Such model also reproduces, at least qualitatively, the empirical observation than when the probability density function decays faster, then the autocorrelation decays slower. Another important feature investigated within the model is the mean First Passage Time (mFPT) Tx0 (Λ) of volatility time-series. We show that the proposed model allows to obtain the mFPT in terms…
Firm Size and Volatility Analysis in the Spanish Stock Market
2011
In this article, three strongly related questions are studied. First, volatility spillovers between large and small firms in the Spanish stock market are analyzed by using a conditional CAPM with an asymmetric multivariate GARCH-M covariance structure. Results show that there exist bidirectional volatility spillovers between both types of firms, especially after bad news. Second, the volatility feedback hypothesis explaining the volatility asymmetry feature is investigated. Results show significant evidence for this hypothesis. Finally, the study uncovers that conditional beta coefficient estimates within the used model are insensitive to sign and size asymmetries in the unexpected shock re…
Option-Implied Volatility Spillovers between Risk Factors in FX Markets and States of the Global Economy
2016
This study employs option price data to back out the implied portfolio volatilities of the dollar and carry trade risk factors of the G-10 currencies. To investigate expected volatility spillover effects between risk factors in FX markets, we extend Grobys (2015) and Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) by constructing expected volatility spillover indices based upon the forecast-error variance decomposition of Vector-Autoregression models employing option-implied portfolio volatilities. Surprisingly, the dollar and carry trade risk factors that are orthogonal in the first moment exhibit strong stochastic interrelations in the second expected moment. Our findings indicate that expected high spillover …
Open and Closed Positions and Stock Index Futures Volatility
2011
In this paper we analyze the relationship between volatility in index futures markets and the number of open and closed positions. We observe that, although in general both positions are positively correlated with contemporaneous volatility, in the case of S&P 500, only the number of open positions has influence over the volatility. Additionally, we observe a stronger positive relationship on days characterized by extreme movements of these contracting movements dominating the market. Finally, our findings suggest that day-traders are not associated to an increment of volatility, whereas uninformed traders, both opening and closing their positions, have to do with it.
Volatility transmission in the CO<inf>2</inf> and energy markets
2009
The main consequence of the launch, in 2005, of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has been the establishment of a price for carbon emissions. Thus, major energy producers in Europe are now aware of the impact of their polluting activities. The interest in analysing the carbon markets from a financial point of view has exponentially increased since the launch of the EU ETS. However, no research articles have focused their attention on the volatility transmission between CO 2 and energy markets. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap in the literature. Specifically, our particular interest is to examine whether or not conditional volatility is transmitted across those mar…
Empirical Study on the Relationship between the Cross-Correlation among Stocks and the Stocks' Volatility Clustering
2013
In this paper we discuss univariate and multivariate statistical properties of volatility with the aim of understanding how these two aspects are interrelated. Specifically, we focus on the relationship between the cross-correlation among stock's volatilities and the volatility clustering. Volatility clustering is related to the memory property of the volatility time-series and therefore to its predictability. Our results show that there exists a relationship between the level of predictability of any volatility time-series and the amount of its inter-dependence with other assets. In all considered cases, the more the asset is linked to other assets, the more its volatility keeps memory of …