Search results for "Volatility"
showing 10 items of 245 documents
Has the Introduction of Bitcoin Futures on Regulated Exchanges Decreased Price Volatility?
2019
Master's thesis Business Administration BE501 - University of Agder 2019 Bitcoin is a tremendously debated phenomenon in the world of finance and in recent the scientific literature on the topic has expanded. In this thesis,the bitcoin to US dollar exchange rate is examined through various conditional variance models to describe its highly volatile nature. We examine whether the introduction of bitcoin futurescontractsin late 2017 has had a decreasing impact on price volatility by estimatingthe unconditional variance. The log-return of the bitcoin exchange rate is analysed,and there is evidence of volatility clustering and time-varying volatility. Consequently, the variance is modelled thro…
Estimation of Value-at-Risk on Romanian Stock Exchange Using Volatility Forecasting Models
2013
This paper aims to analyse the market risk (estimated by Value-at-Risk) on the Romanian capital market using modern econometric tools to estimate volatility, such as EWMA, GARCH models. In this respect, I want to identify the most appropriate volatility forecasting model to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portofolio of representative indices (BET, BET-FI and RASDAQ-C). VaR depends on the volatility, time horizon and confidence interval for the continuous returns under analysis. Volatility tends to happen in clusters. The assumption that volatility remains constant at all times can be fatal. It is determined that the most recent data have asserted more influence on future volatility th…
THE CARMA INTEREST RATE MODEL
2014
In this paper, we present a multi-factor continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) model for the short and forward interest rates. This model is able to present an adequate statistical description of the short and forward rate dynamics. We show that this is a tractable term structure model and provides closed-form solutions to bond prices, yields, bond option prices, and the term structure of forward rate volatility. We demonstrate the capabilities of our model by calibrating it to a panel of spot rates and the empirical volatility of forward rates simultaneously, making the model consistent with both the spot rate dynamics and forward rate volatility structure.
The Decline in U.S. Output Growth Volatility: A Wavelet Analysis
2013
The aim of the paper is to determine whether or not the volatility of the growth rate of US output has changed in the period since late 1940's, and to attribute a precise date, if possible, to any such change. By applying the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to the annualized quarter-to quarter output growth series, we can test the homogeneity of the variance on a scale by scale basis without needing to fit a parametric model to the observed time series. A version of the Inclan and Tiao (1994) Normalised and Centered Cumulative Sum of Squares test, adapted to wavelet analysis, leads us to reject the null hypothesis of constant variance in the two levels of decomposition of the highest resol…
Political, Institutional, and Economic Factors Underlying Deficit Volatility
2013
It is well known that fiscal policy can counter-cyclically smooth out the effect of unexpected shocks and public deficit volatility may reflect the (optimal) policy response to them. However, the welfare losses associated to fiscal instability are also an important challenge for many countries, as it typically implies an inefficient allocation of resources, higher sovereign risk premium and an inadequate provision of public services. In this paper, we empirically analyze the political, institutional, and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system-generalized method-of-moments (GMM) estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed fro…
Retention behaviour of volatile compounds in normal-phase high-performance liquid chromatography on a diol column
1993
Abstract Retention data on a diol column for over 300 compounds of the chemical classes usually contained in aroma extracts of plants and foodstuffs are reported. A concept that largely corrects for minor fluctuations of the mobile phase composition and of the flow-rate was used to measure capacity factors. The mobile phase was composed of pentane and diethyl ether. The high volatility of these two solvents makes the method perfectly adaptable to the prefractionation of aroma extracts and the semi-preparative isolation of compounds. Non-polar compounds such as hydrocarbons are not retained on diol. Polar compounds can be readily eluted, with the exception of strong acids and bases.
Congenital anomalies from a physics perspective. The key role of "manufacturing" volatility
2020
Genetic and environmental factors are traditionally seen as the sole causes of congenital anomalies. In this paper we introduce a third possible cause, namely random "manufacturing" discrepancies with respect to ``design'' values. A clear way to demonstrate the existence of this component is to ``shut'' the two others and to see whether or not there is remaining variability. Perfect clones raised under well controlled laboratory conditions fulfill the conditions for such a test. Carried out for four different species, the test reveals a variability remainder of the order of 10%-20% in terms of coefficient of variation. As an example, the CV of the volume of E.coli bacteria immediately after…
Extracting Conditionally Heteroskedastic Components using Independent Component Analysis
2020
In the independent component model, the multivariate data are assumed to be a mixture of mutually independent latent components. The independent component analysis (ICA) then aims at estimating these latent components. In this article, we study an ICA method which combines the use of linear and quadratic autocorrelations to enable efficient estimation of various kinds of stationary time series. Statistical properties of the estimator are studied by finding its limiting distribution under general conditions, and the asymptotic variances are derived in the case of ARMA-GARCH model. We use the asymptotic results and a finite sample simulation study to compare different choices of a weight coef…
Current economic downturn and supply chain: The significance of demand and inventory smoothing
2014
The aim of this article is to analyse and quantify the effects of demand and inventory smoothing into supply-chain performance, facing the extreme volatility and impetuous alteration of the market produced by the current economic recession. To do so, we model a traditional serial three-stage supply chain and we test five settings of order smoothing under two shocks in the market demand, and we measure effects in terms of internal process benefits and customer service level of all supply chain partners. Results show that the implementation of this inventory strategy should be based on reward schemes; in fact a higher level of smoothing can generally improve the performance of the upstream st…
Exposure to Exchange Rate Risk and Competitiveness: An Application to South-Eastern Europe
2017
Our chapter investigates the economic exposure to currency risk of stock markets from nine countries in South-Eastern Europe using bilateral exchange rates of the domestic currencies against their main trading partners’ currencies between 1999 and 2015. The relevance and magnitude of exposures are investigated through changes in exchange rates in linear and non-linear specifications. Our results indicate that these economies show contemporaneous exposure to currency risk, but they are different in size and sign from one country to another and from one currency to another, a result that can be explained by the dissimilar economic structures in the region. There is smaller evidence for asymme…