Search results for "Volkswirtschaftstheorie"
showing 4 items of 4 documents
Forecasting container transshipment in Germany
2009
International audience; In this paper, we examine container transshipment at German ports using the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model and the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach. Our models are designed especially to take account of the seasonal behavior of the quarterly data used. We consider the dynamic development in this sector for the whole container throughput and also the destinations Asia, Europe and North America, which are the world's three main economic regions. Our data runs from the first quarter of 1989 to the fourth quarter of 2006. We provide detailed quarterly forecasts for the year 2007 and 2008. According to forecasting error measures such as Mean Square Error and The…
Cooperation and cultural transmission in a coordination game
2009
Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze if cooperation can be the product of cultural evolution in a two-stage coordination game, consisting of a production stage followed by a negotiation phase. We present an overlapping generations model with cultural transmission of preferences where the distribution of preferences in the population and the strategies are determined endogenously and simultaneously. There are several groups in the society; some of them play cooperatively and others do not. Socialization takes place inside the group, but there is a positive rate of migration among groups which parents anticipate. Our main result shows that all groups converge to the cooperative equili…
Beyond GDP: an analysis of the socio-economic diversity of European regions
2019
International audience; This paper aims to analyze the socioeconomic diversity of the European Union (EU-28) regions from a dynamic perspective. For that purpose, we combine a series of exploratory space-time analysis approaches to multiple Factor Analysis (MFA) applied to a large range of indicators collected at the NUTS-2 level for the period 2000–2015 for the EU-28. First, we find that the first factor of MFA, interpreted as economic development (ECO-DEV), is spatially clustered and that a moderate convergence process is at work between European regions from 2000 to 2015. Second, when comparing these results with those obtained for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, we show that th…
Self-employment duration in urban and rural locations
2009
Previous research has shown that local environment is important for self-employment. Self-employment dynamics varies between areas characterized by different labour market conditions, entrepreneurial tradition and other structural factors. Alternation between different labour market states (self-employment, paid-employment, non-employment) is also likely to increase if employment opportunities remain low in local labour market markets. This paper analyses the factors influencing the duration of self-employment spells in Finland with a large registered-based data set from the period of 1987-2002. It is evident that rates of exit out of self-employment and the length of self-employment spells…