Search results for "Weather Prediction"
showing 7 items of 27 documents
Analysis and modelling of wind speed in New York
2010
In this paper we propose an ARMA time-series model for the wind speed at a single spatial location, and estimate it on in-sample data recorded in three different wind farm regions in New York state. The data have a three-hour granularity, but based on applications to financial wind derivatives contracts, we also consider daily average wind speeds. We demonstrate that there are large discrepancies in the behaviour of daily average and three-hourly wind speed records. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations reflects that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications, like, for instance, weather prediction, pricing of financial wind cont…
Aircraft type-specific errors in AMDAR weather reports from commercial aircraft
2008
AMDAR (Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay) automated weather reports from commercial aircraft provide an increasing amount of input data for numerical weather prediction models. Previous studies have investigated the quality of AMDAR data. Few of these studies, however, have revealed indications of systematic errors dependent upon the aircraft type. Since different airlines use different algorithms to generate AMDAR reports, it has remained unclear whether a dependency on the aircraft type is caused by physical properties of the aircraft or by different data processing algorithms. In the present study, a special AMDAR dataset was used to investigate the physical type-dependent errors of AMD…
Identifying Rossby wave trains and quantifying their properties
2013
A novel method is introduced to automatically identify upper-level Rossby wave trains and to objectively diagnose their properties. Based on the envelope of the upper tropospheric meridional wind represented in a Hovmoller diagram, the algorithm identifies individual Rossby wave trains as objects. These depend to some extent on user defined parameters. The utility of the method is demonstrated in two areas of application. First, the skill of a particular numerical weather prediction model is analysed for a specific case of a long-lived Rossby wave train. For this purpose, a novel diagnostic is designed based on a Hovmoller diagram of the Rossby wave train objects that contains forecast data…
Modern small wind turbine design solutions comparison in terms of estimated cost to energy output ratio
2015
This paper presents a series of estimations performed in order to establish the actual cost-effectiveness of three different small wind turbines (SWTs) design solutions. Each of them was evaluated and based on their power curves and installation costs, using wind data from a numerical weather prediction (WNP) model, a return on investment (ROI) period was calculated. The chosen turbines are: a standard three bladed horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT), an advanced diffuser augmented HAWT and a Darrieus type vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT). The conclusions drawn from this study entertain the idea that from the economical point of view, a price reduction of SWT systems is more important than…
Applying Numerical Weather Prediction Models to the Production of New European Wind Atlas : Sensitivity studies of the wind climate to the planetary …
2018
Reliable and precise information about the wind speed climate is crucial for the development of wind energy. Meteorological processes in the mesoscale (2 – 200 km) can be represented using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), but before their application for creating wind energy atlases, their results and sensitivity to modelling parameters should be investigated. Here the WRF model wind speed results for the year 2015 for the Baltic Sea region are investigated, and the effect of the planetary boundary layer parametrization scheme is analyzed.
Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Results for Energy Applications in Latvia
2014
Abstract Wind power forecasting greatly relies on wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a reliable source of meteorological forecasts and they can also be used in wind resource assessment. In this work we carry out the verification of wind speed results from the NWP model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), grid resolution - 3 km. Results from 172 model runs in May and November 2013 are compared with meteorological observations in 24 stations in Latvia. The model usually predicts wind speed values that are larger than the observed and the diurnal cycle has a large impact on verification results. Verification results obtained by interpolating model results betw…
G-CLASS: geosynchronous radar for water cycle science – orbit selection and system design
2019
The mission geosynchronous – continental land atmosphere sensing system (G-CLASS) is designed to study thediurnal water cycle, using geosynchronous radar. Although the water cycle is vital to human society, processes on timescalesless than a day are very poorly observed from space. G-CLASS, using C-band geosynchronous radar, could transform this. Itsscience objectives address intense storms and high resolution weather prediction, and significant diurnal processes such assnow melt and soil moisture change, with societal impacts including agriculture, water resource management, flooding, andlandslides. Secondary objectives relate to ground motion observations for earthquake, volcano, and subs…