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Why Is It So Difficult to Uncover the Risk-Return Tradeoff in Stock Returns?
2006
The low power of the standard Wald test in a GARCH-in-Mean model with an unnecessary intercept is shown to explain the apparent absence of a risk-return tradeoff in stocks. The importance of this finding is illustrated with monthly U.S. data. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data
2018
We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flowsâfinancial globalization. Both country- and industry-level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequalityâthat is, they pose an equityâefficiency trade-off. Behind this average lies considerable heterogeneity in effects depending on country characteristics. Liberalization increases output in countries with high financial depth and those that avoid financial crises, while distributional effects are more pronounced in countries with low financial depth and inclusion and where libera…
Financial Globalization, Fiscal Policies and the Distribution of Income
2020
This paper provides evidence that financial globalization—liberalization of the capital account—makes income distribution more uneven by raising the share of income that goes to the richest income deciles. We also offer evidence that changes in domestic fiscal policies in the aftermath of financial globalization are one channel through which these distributional effects could occur. Specifically, we show that episodes of capital account liberalization are followed by greater fiscal consolidation and reduced fiscal redistribution, both of which lead to increased inequality.
Predicting failure in the U.S. banking sector: An extreme gradient boosting approach
2019
Abstract Banks play a central role in developed economies. Consequently, systemic banking crises destabilize financial markets and hamper global economic growth. In this study, extreme gradient boosting was used to predict bank failure in the U.S. banking sector. Key variables were identified to anticipate and prevent bank defaults. The data, which spanned the period 2001 to 2015, consisted of annual series of 30 financial ratios for 156 U.S. national commercial banks. Identifying leading indicators of bank failure is vital to help regulators and bank managers act swiftly before distressed financial institutions reach the point of no return. The findings indicate that lower values for retai…
Integrated capital shares
2019
In empirical macroeconomics, inter-dependencies between countries are often analysed using cross-country correlations or graphical investigation of time series. This study shows that applying an alternative methodological approach - identification of common unobservable factors and using them as explanatory variables for country-specific time series - indicates a stronger cross-country integration of functional income distributions than the standard methods. The results vary only little between different samples, where both the country and year coverage change. Moreover, the main findings are not sensitive to the way capital depreciation is taken into account. The primary driving factor see…
The devil is in the details : Capital stock estimation and aggregate productivity growth : an application to the Spanish economy
2020
The variables that contribute to explaining the major puzzles and paradoxes in macroeconomics and economic growth literature always appear related, directly or indirectly, to capital stock and depreciation. Depreciation defined in a narrow sense refers only to physical wear and tear, but in a broader sense, it also includes economic deterioration and obsolescence. In this study, we explore the link between these two depreciation concepts, the capital deepening and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We propose a double growth accounting framework that allows us to establish a relationship between variables in statistical terms and variables in economic terms. Then, with Spanish data for…
El papel de las cooperativas de crédito en el sostenimiento de la España vaciada a través del capital social
2021
El sistema bancario viene experimentando grandes transformaciones, marcadas por la disminución del número de entidades y la concentración del negocio. Las cooperativas de crédito han logrado mantenerse relativamente aisladas de las turbulencias financieras de la pasada crisis gracias a políticas de inversión prudentes y la clara vocación territorial y de proximidad con el entorno, características que, junto con su carácter cooperativo, se han convertido en las principales fortalezas de este tipo de entidades de crédito. Por otra parte, la creciente desatención del sistema bancario hacia los territorios en retroceso demográfico ha propiciado la exclusión financiera de sus habitantes. En este…
Do robots complement or substitute for older workers?
2021
Abstract The impact of robotization on labor market outcomes has been recently empirically investigated along several directions, including employment, wages and labor productivity. This work contributes to this literature by looking for heterogeneous effects of robots on the workforce, analyzed by age cohorts. Relying on a panel of data from IFR (2019) and EU KLEMS (2009) over the years 1994–2005, we find consistent evidence of higher complementarity between robots and older workers (hours worked by employees aged 50 and over), and a greater substitutability among robots and younger cohorts of the labor market. These findings are robust to age group disaggregation and specific capital pric…
Basel II and bank lending to emerging markets: Evidence from the German banking sector
2007
Abstract This paper investigates whether the new Basel Accord will induce a change in bank lending to emerging markets using a comprehensive new data set on German banks’ foreign exposure. We test two interlinked hypotheses on the conditions under which the change in the regulatory capital would leave lending flows unaffected. This would be the case if (i) the new regulatory capital requirement remains below the economic capital and (ii) banks’ economic capital to emerging markets already adequately reflects risk. On both accounts the evidence indicates that the new Basel Accord should have a limited effect on lending to emerging markets.
REMITTANCES IMPACTS ON SCHOOLING IN JORDAN: ANALYSES WITH RESPECT TO MIGRANT DESTINATION
2019
The two channels that explain how migration of a household member affects human capital formation of those left-behind are income and family disruption effects. In this study, remittances and migration impacts on human capital formation in Jordan is researched with respect to preferred migrant destinations and to the originating governorates of migrants. Jordan’s Labour Market Panel Survey-2010 is used to carry out the analyses. Remittances are found to have a positive impact on “schooling”, and findings do not change significantly across households with respect to the host country. There is no solid evidence of family disruption, except in households where both parents are absent; however,…