Search results for "bayesian"
showing 10 items of 604 documents
Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models
2011
Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…
Consensus in inventory games
2008
This paper studies design, convergence, stability and optimality of a distributed consensus protocol for n-player repeated non cooperative games under incomplete information. Information available to each player concerning the other players' strategies evolves in time. At each stage (time period), the players select myopically their best binary strategy on the basis of a payoff, defined on a single stage, monotonically decreasing with the number of active players. The game is specialized to an inventory application, where fixed costs are shared among all retailers, interested in reordering or not from a common warehouse. As information evolves in time, the number of active players changes t…
The role of physical activity in the link between menopausal status and mental well-being
2020
OBJECTIVE To examine the relationship between menopausal status and mental well-being, and whether this relationship varies as a function of physical activity (PA). METHODS Based on a hormonal analysis and bleeding diary, women aged 47 to 55 were categorized as pre (n = 304), early peri (n = 198), late peri (n = 209), or postmenopausal (n = 387). Mental well-being was assessed using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, the International Positive and Negative Affect Schedule Short Form, and the Satisfaction with Life Scale. PA was self-reported and categorized as low, medium, and high. Associations between variables were analyzed using multivariate linear regression adjuste…
A CNN Adaptive Model to Estimate PM10 Monitoring
2006
In this work we introduce a model for studying the distribution and control of atmospheric pollution from PM10. The model is based on the use of a cellular neural network (CNN) and more precisely on the integration of the mass-balance equation; at the same time it simulates the scenario regarding a planar grid describing the whole studied area (the city of Palermo) by means of a CNN and a set of Bayesian networks. The CNN allows us to define a grid system whose dynamic evolution is a redefinition of the diffusion equation that considers contributions coming from near cells for each element of the grid. Dynamics of each cell is influenced by meteorological effects and by parameters related t…
Rejection odds and rejection ratios: A proposal for statistical practice in testing hypotheses
2016
Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations -- even the full Baye…
Bayesian Modelling of Confusability of Phoneme-Grapheme Connections
2007
Deficiencies in the ability to map letters to sounds are currently considered to be the most likely early signs of dyslexia. This has motivated the use of Literate, a computer game for training this skill, in several Finnish schools and households as a tool in the early prevention of reading disability. In this paper, we present a Bayesian model that uses a student's performance in a game like Literate to infer which phoneme-grapheme connections student currently confuses with each other. This information can be used to adapt the game to a particular student's skills as well as to provide information about the student's learning progress to their parents and teachers. We apply our model to …
Batch Methods for Resolution Enhancement of TIR Image Sequences
2015
Thermal infrared (TIR) time series are exploited by many methods based on Earth observation (EO), for such applications as agriculture, forest management, and meteorology. However, due to physical limitations, data acquired by a single sensor are often unsatisfactory in terms of spatial or temporal resolution. This issue can be tackled by using remotely sensed data acquired by multiple sensors with complementary features. When nonreal-time functioning or at least near real-time functioning is admitted, the measurements can be profitably fed to a sequential Bayesian algorithm, which allows to account for the correlation embedded in the successive acquisitions. In this work, we focus on appli…
Revisiting the Epipalaeolithic-Neolithic Transition in the Extreme NW of Africa : The Latest Results of the Chronological Sequence of the Cave of Kaf…
2021
[EN] This study focuses on the chronostratigraphic sequence of the Cave of Kaf Taht el-Ghar (Dar Ben Karrich, Tétouan, Morocco) excavated in 2012 in the framework of the AGRIWESTMED research project. The broad sequence reveals a series of occupations ranging from the Pleistocene (Moroccan Aterian) to recent historical times. Our research identifies a rich Early Neolithic phase (sixth millennium cal BC) containing the earliest pottery and domesticated animal and plant remains in the western Maghreb. However, this Early Neolithic level is not an immediate successor of the last traces of the Epipalaeolithic hunter-gatherer occupation, which started at the end of the Younger Dryas (10,900–9700 …
Pleistocene allopatric differentiation followed by recent range expansion explains the distribution and molecular diversity of two congeneric crustac…
2021
AbstractPleistocene glaciations had a tremendous impact on the biota across the Palaearctic, resulting in strong phylogeographic signals of range contraction and rapid postglacial recolonization of the deglaciated areas. Here, we explore the diversity patterns and history of two sibling species of passively dispersing taxa typical of temporary ponds, fairy shrimps (Anostraca). We combine mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (ITS2 and 18S) markers to conduct a range-wide phylogeographic study including 56 populations of Branchinecta ferox and Branchinecta orientalis in the Palaearctic. Specifically, we investigate whether their largely overlapping ranges in Europe resulted from allopatric differe…
Benefits of a dance group intervention on institutionalized elder people: A Bayesian network approach
2018
[EN] The present study aims to explore the effects of an adapted classical dance intervention on the psychological and functional status of institutionalized elder people using a Bayesian network. All participants were assessed at baseline and after the 9 weeks period of the intervention. Measures included balance and gait, psychological well-being, depression, and emotional distress. According to the Bayesian network obtained, the dance intervention increased the likelihood of presenting better psychological well-being, balance, and gait. Besides, it also decreased the probabilities of presenting emotional distress and depression. These findings demonstrate that dancing has functional and …