Search results for "bayesian"
showing 10 items of 604 documents
Inferring Learning Strategies from Cultural Frequency Data
2015
Social learning has been identified as one of the fundamentals of culture and therefore the understanding of why and how individuals use social information presents one of the big questions in cultural evolution. To date much of the theoretical work on social learning has been done in isolation of data. Evolutionary models often provide important insight into which social learning strategies are expected to have evolved but cannot tell us which strategies human populations actually use. In this chapter we explore how much information about the underlying learning strategies can be extracted by analysing the temporal occurrence or usage patterns of different cultural variants in a population…
Population differentiation of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Poland inferred by the analysis of mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA …
2013
We investigated the genetic diversity of Polish populations of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) using complete sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and allelic variation at thirteen microsatellite loci. We collected data from 146 turtles from 28 locations covering most of the species’ range in Poland. Our results showed a low haplotype diversity and high levels of microsatellite diversity in all populations. We applied two Bayesian approaches using the multilocus data and determined relationships of mtDNA haplotypes by constructing a parsimony network. We observed relatively consistent results of the two Bayesian clustering methods and largely concordant differentiati…
Continental-scale patterns of pathogen prevalence: a case study on the corncrake
2014
Pathogen infections can represent a substantial threat to wild populations, especially those already limited in size. To determine how much variation in the pathogens observed among fragmented populations is caused by ecological factors, one needs to examine systems where host genetic diversity is consistent among the populations, thus controlling for any potentially confounding genetic effects. Here, we report geographic variation in haemosporidian infection among European populations of corncrake. This species now occurs in fragmented populations, but there is little genetic structure and equally high levels of genetic diversity among these populations. We observed a longitudinal gradient…
Large Networks of Dynamic Agents: Consensus under Adversarial Disturbances
2012
This paper studies interactions among homogeneous social groups within the framework of large population games. Each group is represented by a network and the behavior described by a two-player repeated game. The contribution is three-fold. Beyond the idea of providing a novel two-level model with repeated games at a lower level and population games at a higher level, we also establish a mean field equilibrium and study state feedback best-response strategies as well as worst-case adversarial disturbances in that context.
Expert system for predicting unstable angina based on Bayesian networks
2013
The use of computer-based clinical decision support (CDS) tools is growing significantly in recent years. These tools help reduce waiting lists, minimise patient risks and, at the same time, optimise the cost health resources. In this paper, we present a CDS application that predicts the probability of having unstable angina based on clinical data. Due to the characteristics of the variables (mostly binary) a Bayesian network model was chosen to support the system. Bayesian-network model was constructed using a population of 1164 patients, and subsequently was validated with a population of 103 patients. The validation results, with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 91%, demonstrate its …
Application of a Bayesian Spatiotemporal Surveillance Method to NYC Syndromic Data
2014
Incorporating prior knowledge (e.g., the spatial distribution of zip codes and background population effects) into a model using Bayesian methods could potentially improve outbreak detection. We adapted a previously described Bayesian model-based spatiotemporal surveillance technique to daily respiratory syndrome counts in NYC Emergency Department data in 2009, the year of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. Citywide, 56 alarms were produced across 15 zip codes, all during days of elevated respiratory visits. Future work includes evaluating our choice of baseline length, considering other alarm thresholds, and conducting a formal evaluation of the method across five syndromes in NYC.
Bayesian reanalysis of a quantitative trait locus accounting for multiple environments by scaling in broilers1
2006
A Bayesian method was developed to handle QTL analyses of multiple experimental data of outbred populations with heterogeneity of variance between sexes for all random effects. The method employed a scaled reduced animal model with random polygenic and QTL allelic effects. A parsimonious model specification was applied by choosing assumptions regarding the covariance structure to limit the number of parameters to estimate. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms were applied to obtain marginal posterior densities. Simulation demonstrated that joint analysis of multiple environments is more powerful than separate single trait analyses of each environment. Measurements on broiler BW obtained from…
High‐resolution 3D forest structure explains ecomorphological trait variation in assemblages of saproxylic beetles
2022
1. Climate, topography and the 3D structure of forests are major drivers affecting local species communities. However, little is known about how the specific functional traits of saproxylic (wood-living) beetles, involved in the recycling of wood, might be affected by those environmental characteristics. 2. Here, we combine ecological and morphological traits available for saproxylic beetles and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data in Bayesian trait-based joint species distribution models to study how traits drive the distributions of more than 230 species in temperate forests of Europe. 3. We found that elevation (as a proxy for temperature and precipitation) and the proportion of conifers p…
Tratamiento bayesiano de valores ausentes en datos espacio-temporales
2015
Con frecuencia en estadística se tiene que hacer frente a la presencia de valores ausentes en el conjunto de datos sobre el que se desea realizar un análisis estadístico. La existencia de valores ausentes no sólo implica una mayor complejidad asociada al análisis sino que también introduce mayor incertidumbre en el estudio. Este hecho puede derivar en posibles sesgos en los resultados finales y, por tanto, cuestionar la fiabilidad en las conclusiones que de estos se deriven, por lo que la existencia de valores ausentes puede llegar a representar un serio problema si su tratamiento no es el adecuado. No es de extrañar entonces, la innumerable cantidad de publicaciones existentes asociadas al…
Conectando con el pasado. Redes sociales en la Prehistoria Reciente
2022
Las redes sociales virtuales han cambiado el modo de vida de la humanidad. Permiten interactuar con personas de todo el planeta o difundir noticias. Sin embargo, las redes sociales no son un invento contemporáneo. Desde los orígenes de la humanidad, las redes sociales constituyen el complejo entramado sobre el que se tejen las estructuras colectivas que conforman las sociedades humanas. Esta densa trama de relaciones, que comienza a ser tejida en círculos íntimos, tiene el potencial de crecer y extenderse hasta los confines más distantes. Las estructuras de toda sociedad humana se edifican sobre esta urdimbre relacional, independientemente de su grado de complejidad. Por ello el estudio de …