Search results for "bayesian"

Comparing Different approaches - Data mining, Geostatistic, and Deterministic pedology - to assess the Frequency of WRB reference soil groups in the …

2014

Estimating frequency of soil classes in map unit is always affected by some degree of uncertainty, especially at small scales, with a larger generalization. The aim of this study was to compare different possible approaches - data mining, geostatistic, deterministic pedology - to assess the frequency of WRB Reference Soil Groups (RSG) in the major Italian soil regions. In the soil map of Italy (Costantini et al., 2012), a list of the first five RSG was reported in each major 10 soil regions. The soil map was produced using the national soil geodatabase, which stored 22,015 analyzed and classified pedons, 1,413 soil typological unit (STU) and a set of auxiliary variables (lithology, land-use…

Estimating the Bayesian posterior distribution of indirect effects in causal longitudinal mediation analysis

Many research studies aim to unveil the causal mechanism underlying a particular phenomenon; mediation analysis is increasingly used for this scope, and longitudinal data are particularly suited for mediation since they ensure the correct temporal order among variables and the time spanning allows the causal effects to unfold. This explains the rise of interest in the topic of longitudinal mediation analysis. Many approaches have been proposed to cope with longitudinal mediation (Fosen et al., 2005; Lin et al., 2017), among which mixed-effect modelling. In a recent paper, Bind et al. (Biostatistics, 2016) made use of generalised mixed effect models and provided conditions for the identifiab…

Bayesian causal mediation analysis through linear mixed-effect models

2022

In mediational settings, the main focus is on the estimation of the indirect effect of an exposure on an outcome through a third variable called mediator. The traditional maximum likelihood estimation method presents several problems in the estimation of the standard error and the confidence interval of the indirect effect. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to obtain the posterior distribution of the indirect effect through MCMC, in the context of mediational mixed models for longitudinal data. A simulation study shows that our method outperforms the traditional maximum likelihood approach in terms of bias and coverage rates.

A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine

2022

We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Appl…

The role of physical activity in the link between menopausal status and mental well-being

2020

OBJECTIVE To examine the relationship between menopausal status and mental well-being, and whether this relationship varies as a function of physical activity (PA). METHODS Based on a hormonal analysis and bleeding diary, women aged 47 to 55 were categorized as pre (n = 304), early peri (n = 198), late peri (n = 209), or postmenopausal (n = 387). Mental well-being was assessed using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, the International Positive and Negative Affect Schedule Short Form, and the Satisfaction with Life Scale. PA was self-reported and categorized as low, medium, and high. Associations between variables were analyzed using multivariate linear regression adjuste…

Neighborhood Characteristics, Alcohol Outlet Density, and Alcohol-Related Calls-for-Service: A Spatiotemporal Analysis in a Wet Drinking Country

2017

Alcohol outlets have been associated with different social problems, such as crime, violence, intimate partner violence, and child maltreatment. The spatial analysis of neighborhood availability of alcohol outlets is key for better understanding of these influences. Most studies on the spatial distribution of alcohol outlets in the community have been conducted in U.S. cities, but few studies have assessed this spatial distribution in other countries where the drinking culture may differ. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of alcohol outlets in the city of Valencia, Spain, and its relationship with neighborhood-level characteristics, as well as to examine t…

Insights into the derivative-based method for nonlinear mediation models

2022

Associational mediation analysis has generally relied on the linearity of models to estimate the indirect effect as a product of regression coefficients. Very few examples of generalisations to nonlinear settings have been proposed, including a derivative-based method that, however, is far from being widely spread among scholars. In this paper, we clarify some aspects of such an approach to nonlinear mediation models, which have not been addressed by the previous literature. In addition, we run a simulation study to compare confidence intervals for the indirect effect obtained through different approaches.

Data from: The legacy of a vanished sea: a high level of diversification within a European freshwater amphipod species complex driven by 15 My of Par…

2015

The formation of continental Europe in the Neogene was due to the regression of the Tethys Ocean and of the Paratethys Sea. The dynamic geology of the area and repetitious transitions between marine and freshwater conditions presented opportunities for the colonization of newly emerging hydrological networks and diversification of aquatic biota. Implementing mitochondrial and nuclear markers in conjunction with a large-scale sampling strategy, we investigated the impact of this spatiotemporal framework on the evolutionary history of a freshwater crustacean morphospecies. The Gammarus balcanicus species complex is widely distributed in the area previously occupied by the Paratethys Sea. Our …

Data from: Extinction and recolonization of maritime Antarctica in the limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel, 1908) during the last glacial cycle: toward …

2013

Quaternary glaciations in Antarctica drastically modified geographical ranges and population sizes of marine benthic invertebrates and thus affected the amount and distribution of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we present new genetic information in the Antarctic limpet Nacella concinna, a dominant Antarctic benthic species along shallow ice-free rocky ecosystems. We examined the patterns of genetic diversity and structure in this broadcast spawner along maritime Antarctica and from the peri-Antarctic island of South Georgia. Genetic analyses showed that N. concinna represents a single panmictic unit in maritime Antarctic. Low levels of genetic diversity characterized this population…

Data from: Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models

2018

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypoth…