Search results for "business cycle"
showing 10 items of 90 documents
Household debt and labor market fluctuations
2011
Abstract The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fluctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. We set up a search model with efficient bargaining and financial frictions, in which impatient borrowers can take an amount of credit that cannot exceed a proportion of the expected value of their real estate holdings. When borrowers' equity requirements are low, the impact of a positive technology shock on the marginal utility of consumption is strengthened, which in turn re…
Noise-induced transitions in a stochastic Goodwin-type business cycle model
2017
Abstract We motivate and specify a stochastic Goodwin-type business cycle model. Our analysis focusses on a subset of the parameter space where several attractors coexist. Applying a semi-numerical approach based on the stochastic sensitivity function and confidence domains due to Milstein and Ryashko (1995) , we study random transitions between stable attractors in the context of the Goodwin-type economy embedded in an uncertain environment. Relying on a mix of analytical considerations and simulations we demonstrate that under weak noise levels regime switching is a prominent feature in the presence of low saving rates. Moreover, we explain how increased uncertainty can induce an essentia…
A wavelet analysis of the ripple effect in UK regional housing markets
2021
Abstract The paper aims at gaining insights on the spatio-temporal mechanism of house price spillovers, also known as ripple effect, among 12 UK regional housing markets, over the period 1973–2018. From a policy perspective, it is essential to discriminate if the effects of a shock decay more slowly along the geographical dimension as compared to the decay along the time dimension. We enter the debate in a novel manner by using some wavelet analysis tools (wavelet coherence and phase differences amongst others) which reveal the spectral characteristics of a series and show how different periodic components of housing returns evolve over time. Results are interesting. Spillovers from London …
Differential Effect on the Determinants of the Late Payments According to the Economic Cycle
2018
From 2004 to 2007, the Spanish financial system grew at a very rapid rate. However, from 2008 to 2012 impairment losses amounted equivalent to 25% of Spanish GDP.The objective of this paper is investigate how have affected the main problems that have suffered the Spanish economy on the late payments on Spanish credit institutions. And to check whether the effect of these problems is different on stages of growth with respect to the stages of crisis.The main results, according the test Chow, confirmed that there is a structural break in the model in 2007. Also the increase in unemployment increases the late payments and this increase is greater in the stages of growth compared to the stage…
An Economic Viewpoint on Capitalism Bashing
2016
Abstract In this paper I discuss two long disputed notions: that capitalism without crises is a fallacy respectively that capitalism bashing, however severe, will not endanger the system itself. Yet proving both is not an easy task since the capitalism issue has always been a cupellation of theory, ideology and political precepts, which are controversial and hard to disentangle. That capitalism detractors are numberless is a truism. Yet criticism against capitalism, however fierce, has always been clearly delineated. Not any more: globalization has rendered the picture dangerously fuzzy. It is now hard to ascertain whether someone who will harangue about the ostensible evils of globalizatio…
A Chronology of Financial Crises for Norway
2010
The paper offers a chronology of financial crises in Norway from her independence in 1814 till present times. Firstly, business cycles, covering almost two hundred years of economic history are mapped. These reveal years of crises in the real economy. These seem to coincide with most of the major financial crises. Secondly, the paper the financial crises are described chronologically. Thirdly, the paper investigates key patterns in credit and money volumes. It concludes that major financial crises typically took place after substantial money and credit expansion causing financial instability, loss of long term equilibriums, overheating and bubbles followed by severe meltdowns in the economy.
The Role of Education in Self–Employment Success in Finland
2002
This paper analyzes the effect of self–employed persons’ education on the success of their firms during the economic downturn and upturn of the 1990's. It is found that the business cycle affects the relative closure rates of firms run by self–employed with any level of education. Exit probability is lower for the highly educated during bust, but higher in boom. This is accounted for by two facts. First, running a small firm is argued to be a less attractive choice to wage work, particularly for the highly educated, due to lower earning prospects, less stable stream of earnings, and the cultural tradition of working in large corporations. Second, the highly educated faced a higher outside d…
The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-Out versus Crowding-In Effects
2009
The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of government spending on the private sector, assessing the existence of crowding-out versus crowding-in effects. Using a panel of 145 countries from 1960 to 2007, the results suggest that government spending produces important crowding-out effects, by negatively affecting both private consumption and investment. Moreover, while the effects do not seem to depend on the different phases of economic cycle, they vary considerably among regions. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust to several econometric techniques.
Assessing commodity price risks and terms of trade exposures in emerging and developing countries
2020
This paper provides novel evidence on commodity exposure (impacts of commodity price and terms of trade fluctuations) amongst 46 emerging and developing countries (EMDCs) in Africa, Asia and the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. We focus on the exposures of six macroeconomic variables to the commodity prices and terms of trade, based on the real business cycle (RBC) theory. Our empirical results indicate that, overall, about 10% of the macroeconomic variation amongst the EMDCs is due to commodity market-related exposures. The Asian and LAC economies are especially sensitive to changes in commodity prices. The changes in the prices of world trade have an imminent impact on non-commo…
Competition and inflation differentials in EMU
2008
In a monetary union, inflation rate differentials may be substantial over the business cycle. This paper parameterizes a two-country monetary union in which different economic structures in the two countries generate temporary inflation differentials. Cross-country differences are introduced in (i) the elasticity of demand in the goods markets, which cause producers to discriminate prices, (ii) the degree of price inertia and (iii) the degree of openness or preference for foreign goods in consumption. The model is calibrated to reproduce two average large EMU countries and it is able to generate such inflation differentials. We find the mechanism of price discrimination quantitatively more …