Search results for "certainty"
showing 10 items of 1057 documents
Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box–Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bay…
2012
Abstract In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised L…
Assessment of data and parameter uncertainties in integrated water-quality model
2011
In integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones depending on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and uncertainty of measurements in the different parts of the system. Uncertainty basically propagates throughout a chain of models in which simulation output from upstream models is transferred to the downstream ones as input. The overall uncertainty can differ from the simple sum of uncertainties generated in each sub-model, dep…
A composite indicator for water meter replacement in an urban distribution network
2012
In water supply management, volumetric water meter are typically used to measure users' consumption. With water meters, utilities can collect useful data for billing, assess the water balance of the system, and identify failures in the network, water theft and anomalous user behaviour. Despite their importance, these instruments are characterised by intrinsic errors that cause so-called apparent losses. The complexity of the physical phenomena associated with metering errors in aging water meters does not allow meter replacement to be guided by single parameters, such as the meter age or the total volume passed through the meter. This paper presents a meter replacement strategy based on a c…
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated membrane bioreactor model
2015
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, although can be of primarily importance in mathematical modelling approaches, are scarcely applied in the field of membrane bioreactor (MBR). An integrated mathematical model for MBR is applied with the final aim to pin down sources of uncertainty in MBR modelling. The uncertainty analysis has been performed combining global sensitivity analysis (GSA) with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The model and methodology were applied to a University Cape Town pilot plant. Results show that the complexity of the modelled processes and the propagation effect from the influent to the effluent increase the uncertainty of the model predicti…
A DAQ-based sampling wattmeter for IEEE Std. 1459-2010 powers measurements. Uncertainty evaluation in nonsinusoidal conditions
2015
Abstract This paper presents the evaluation of the metrological performances of a DAQ-based sampling wattmeter (DAQ-SW) for the measurement of IEEE Std. 1459-2010 power quantities in non-sinusoidal conditions. The instrument makes use of two commercial data acquisition (DAQ) boards, a non-inductive current shunt, a personal computer and a commercial software for data processing. Starting from the results of an experimental characterization of the two instrument channels with non-sinusoidal voltages and currents and a correlation analysis, the combined standard uncertainties of IEEE Std. 1459-2010 quantities are evaluated, following the approach of the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertai…
Exploring the uncertainty in capacity estimation at roundabouts
2017
Abstract Purpose In gap-acceptance theory the critical and the follow-up headways have a significant role in determining roundabout entry capacities which in turn depend on circulating flow rates under a specified arrival headway distribution. Calculation considers single mean values of the gap-acceptance parameters, neglecting the inherent variations in these random variables and providing a single value of entry capacity. The purpose of this paper is to derive the entry capacity distribution which accounts for the variations of the contributing (random) variables and suggest how to consider this issue in the operational analysis of the roundabouts. Methods We performed a Monte Carlo simul…
Uncertainty assessment of a model for biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal: Application to a large wastewater treatment plant
2012
Abstract In the last few years, the use of mathematical models in WasteWater Treatment Plant (WWTP) processes has become a common way to predict WWTP behaviour. However, mathematical models generally demand advanced input for their implementation that must be evaluated by an extensive data-gathering campaign, which cannot always be carried out. This fact, together with the intrinsic complexity of the model structure, leads to model results that may be very uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty is imperative. However, despite the importance of uncertainty quantification, only few studies have been carried out in the wastewater treatment field, and those studies only included a few of …
Sensitivity analysis to quantify uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessment: The case study of an Italian tile
2011
Abstract The results of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study can be affected by several uncertainty sources, mainly due to the methodological choices, the initial assumptions, i.e. allocation rules, system boundaries and impact assessment methods, and the quality of the available data. Then, the experts should estimate the extent of the above-mentioned sources of uncertainty for improving the reliability and the representativeness of the obtained eco-profiles. To estimate the uncertainty is necessary to obtain reliable, transparent and representative LCA results and to correctly support decision-makers in the selection of different product or process options. The following paper starts from …
Immunity of a Virtual Instrument to conducted electromagnetic disturbances
2004
In the paper the performances of the Virtual Instruments under conducted electromagnetic disturbances are investigated, in order to find out if and how their metrological characteristics change with respect to the ones measured in absence of electromagnetic threats. The analysis is carried out by means of experimental tests, subjecting the AC power port of the systems under test to the conducted disturbances considered by the IEC-61326 standard and following the test procedures prescribed in the IEC-61000-4-series standards. The results show that the tested measurements instruments are sufficiently immune to these disturbances, since no variations of the distinctive parameters have been obs…
A PC-based wattmeter for accurate measurements in sinusoidal and distorted conditions: Setup and experimental characterization
2012
This paper presents the development of a high-accuracy sampling wattmeter, which can be employed with both sinusoidal and distorted input signals. The proposed personal computer (PC)-based system is a simple, portable, and low-cost solution because it is based on two commercial data acquisition boards connected to a common PC. Owing to this solution, the voltage is sensed directly, avoiding expensive voltage dividers, while the current is sensed by means of a noninductive current shunt. Commercial software is also used for data processing and implementation of the virtual instrument. The setup of the PC-based wattmeter is described, with a detailed description of the correction strategy of …