Search results for "climatology"
showing 10 items of 1164 documents
Quantifying transport into the lowermost stratosphere using simultaneous in-situ measurements of SF<sub>6</sub> and CO&am…
2009
Abstract. The seasonality of transport and mixing of air into the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) is studied using distributions of mean age of air and a mass balance approach, based on in-situ observations of SF6 and CO2 during the SPURT (Spurenstofftransport in der Tropopausenregion, trace gas transport in the tropopause region) aircraft campaigns. Combining the information of the mean age of air and the water vapour distributions we demonstrate that the tropospheric air transported into the LMS above the extratropical tropopause layer (ExTL) originates predominantly from the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The concept of our mass balance is based on simultaneous measurements of the two pas…
Incorporation of aerosol effects in a clear-sky semi-empirical model of UVER radiation for Valencia, Spain
2011
The study develops a simple but physically based model for estimating erythemal irradiance [(UV erythemal radiation (UVER)] for cloudless urban regions with substantial aerosol load, such as that of the Valencia environment in Spain. The model estimates direct and diffuse UVER for cloudless aerosol-free conditions using the LibRadtran model with a DISORT algorithm. Aerosol optical thickness for UVER (τaER) is obtained as a residual term by comparing measured direct UVER against modelled direct UVER in the absence of aerosol load. On average, τaER is 18% higher than τ data extrapolated to 305 nm using the CIMEL CE-318. Comparison of measured direct and diffuse UVER with model estimates provi…
Sudan-Sahel rainfall onset: Definition of an objective index, types of years, and experimental hindcasts
2006
Using rainfall estimates from the 5-day version of CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project data along with multiscale spatial key descriptors of atmospheric dynamics from National Center for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE), we first define a West African monsoon onset index to determine its successive dates of occurrence over the period 1979-2004 (28-29 June in mean with a standard deviation of 8.5 days). Then we focus on the three main types of time evolutions of that index at the moment of the monsoon onset in terms of precipitation, pressure, temperature, and winds at different levels to detect the mos…
Trends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in northern tropical Africa (1961-2014) from observed and PPCA-reconstructed time series
2016
Trends in daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures and indices of warm extremes are studied in tropical North Africa, west of the eastern African highlands, from 1961 to 2014. The analysis is based on the concatenation and cross-checking of two observed databases. Due to the large number of missing entries (~25%), a statistical infilling using probabilistic principal component analysis was applied. Averaged over 90 stations, the linear trends of annual mean TX and TN equal respectively +0.021 °C/yr and +0.028 °C/yr. The frequency of very hot days (TX > 35°C) and tropical nights (TN > 20°C), as well as the frequency of daily TX and TN above the 90th percentile (p90) (“warm days” and …
Performance of DEMETER calibration for rainfall forecasting purposes: Application to the July–August Sahelian rainfall
2008
International audience; This work assesses and compares the skill of direct and model-output-statistics (MOS) calibrated hindcasts of the July–August rainfall amounts for the dry period 1980–2000 over the Sahel issued from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) experiment, with the aim to highlight among the simulated parameters, i.e., those potentially relevant for rainfall forecasts purposes. Three approaches were used: the DEMETER (1) direct rainfall, (2) MOS-calibrated rainfall, and (3) MOS-calibrated atmospheric dynamics and energy. Canonical correlation analyses (CCA) were employed in the two latter approaches to calib…
The erythemal clearness index for Valencia, Spain
2009
The values of three clearness indices have been measured for the city of Valencia: kt, the clearness index for the whole solar spectrum, ktUV the clearness index for the ultraviolet range, and the erythemal clearness index for the erythemal radiation ktUVER, corresponding to the solar radiation weighted by the erythemal action spectrum on human skin, normalized with respect to the solar constant corresponding to that spectrum. The measurements of ktUV reached values that were approximately 54% of that corresponding to kt, while those of ktUVER were much smaller. Some statistics of the erythemal clearness index have been calculated both for monthly as well as hourly means. The shape of the d…
The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the GeoMIP
2015
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has been proposed as a mean to partly counteract global warming. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has simulated the climate consequences of a number of SRM techniques. Thus far, the effects on vegetation have not yet been thoroughly analyzed. Here the vegetation response to the idealized GeoMIP G1 experiment from eight fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs) is analyzed, in which a reduction of the solar constant counterbalances the radiative effects of quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations (abrupt4 × CO2). For most models and regions, changes in net primary productivity (NPP) are dominated by the increase in CO2, via the CO2 fe…
Spatial coherence and potential predictability assessment of intraseasonal statistics of wet and dry spells over Equatorial Eastern Africa
2012
The aim of this study was to derive components of the intraseasonal rainfall variations from the daily rainfall in the Equatorial Eastern Africa region and assess their spatial coherence, a pointer to their potential predictability. Daily rainfall observations from 36 stations distributed over Equatorial Eastern Africa and extending from 1962 to 2000 were used. The March to May and October to December periods commonly referred to as the long and short rainfall seasons respectively were considered. Seasonal and intraseasonal statistics at the local (station) level were first defined. The stations were also grouped into near-homogeneous (sub-regional) zones based on daily rainfall. Similarly,…
Analysing time-varying trends in stratospheric ozone time series using the state space approach
2014
Abstract. We describe a hierarchical statistical state space model for ozone profile time series. The time series are from satellite measurements by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II and the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) instruments spanning the years 1984–2011. Vertical ozone profiles were linearly interpolated on an altitude grid with 1 km resolution covering 20–60 km. Monthly averages were calculated for each altitude level and 10° wide latitude bins between 60° S and 60° N. In the analysis, mean densities are studied separately for the 25–35, 35–45, and 45–55 km layers. Model variables include the ozone mean level, local trend, seasonal osc…
Aerosol physicochemical effects on CCN activation simulated with the chemistry-climate model EMAC
2017
Abstract This study uses the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-climate model to simulate cloud properties with a prognostic cloud droplet nucleation scheme. We present modeled global distributions of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations and CCN activation rates, together with the effective hygroscopicity parameter κ, to describe the aerosol chemical composition effect on CCN activation. Large particles can easily activate into cloud droplets, even at low κ values due to the dominant size effect in cloud droplet formation. Small particles are less efficiently activated as CCN, and are more sensitive to aerosol composition and supersaturation. Since the dominant fraction of small pa…