Search results for "cointegration"
showing 10 items of 62 documents
- EL EFECTO FISHER Y LA PARIDAD DE INTERÉS REAL. EVIDENCIA PARA LA ECONOMÍA ESPAÑOLA
1999
This paper provides an empirical test of the Fisher effect and of the real interest parity. The objetive is to determinate the behavior of the ex-ante real interest that condicionate the intertemporal savings and investment decisions. The method used is the time series properties of the data, which allows to separate estimation of the long-run equilibrium relationship from the nuisance parameters that characterize the short-run dynamics. The results find support inthe long run for a tax-adjusted Fisher hypothesis but not for the real interest parity. En este trabajo se contrasta empíricamente el cumplimiento de la hipótesis de Fisher y de la paridad de interés real para el caso español. El …
Price and volatility dynamics between electricity and fuel costs: Some evidence for Spain
2012
Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal linkages between the Spanish electricity, Brent crude oil and Zeebrugge (Belgium) natural gas 1-month-ahead forward prices. Following Lutkepohl et al. (2004), we control for the presence of a structural change in the series and then we use the Johansen cointegration test and a vector error correction model (VECM) to embrace the analysis. Additionally, a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is applied to explore volatility interactions between the three markets involved in the study. Our findings reveal that Brent crude oil and Zeebrugge natural gas forward prices play a prominent rol…
Residual-based block bootstrap for cointegration testing
2010
We propose a new testing procedure to determine the rank of cointegration. This new method is based on the nonparametric resampling procedure, so-called Residual-Based Block Bootstrap (RBB), which is developed by Paparoditis and Politis (2003) in the context of unit root testing. Through Monte Carlo experiments we show that, in small samples, the RBB cointegration test has good power properties in relation to the other two well-known tests for cointegration, such as the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), applied to the residual of a cointegrating regression, and the Johansen's maximum eigenvalue tests. Likewise, this article looks at the influence played by the correlation of the ‘X’ variables …
Pricing of forwards and other derivatives in cointegrated commodity markets
2015
Abstract We analyze cointegration in commodity markets, and propose a parametric class of pricing measures which preserves cointegration for forward prices with fixed time to maturity. We present explicit expressions for the term structure of volatility and correlation in the context of our spot price models based on continuous-time autoregressive moving average dynamics for the stationary components. The term structures have many interesting shapes, and we provide some empirical evidence from refined oil future prices at NYMEX defending our modeling idea. Motivated from these results, we present a cointegrated forward price dynamics using the Heath–Jarrow–Morton approach. In this setting, …
Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC
1996
The aim of this paper is to find some empirical evidence on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) in the Spanish case vis a vis the European Community for the period 1980–89. The main contribution of the paper is the aggregation of the variables corresponding to the countries that participate in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. The results support the importance of the interest differential as an explanatory variable for the short-term adjustment to the PPP. The results follow from powerful estimation techniques, applied in the framework of a multivariate error-correction model using the maximum-likelihood procedure as developed by Joh…
Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between stock prices and dividends
2008
According to several empirical studies, the linear present-value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long run. We analyse the possible presence of threshold cointegration between real stock prices and dividends for the US market during the period from 1871:1 to 2004:6. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration between stock prices and dividends is rejected in favour of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. We find also that stock prices do not respond to equilibrium error, and dividends respond to the past divergence only if the deviation from the equilibrium error does not exceed the estimated threshold parameter. This in turn would…
A note on nonlinear dynamics in the Spanish term structure of interest rates
2006
Abstract This note applies the methodology to test for threshold cointegration recently proposed by Hansen and Seo (2002) [Hansen, B. E. & Seo, B., (2002). Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models. Journal of Econometrics, 110, 293–318] to the Spanish term structure of interest rates during the period 1980:1–2002:12. The evidence suggests that nonlinear cointegration between long and short interest rates is clearly rejected, so that a linear cointegration model would provide an adequate empirical description for the Spanish term structure of interest rate.
Instability tests in cointegration relationships. An application to the term structure of interest rates
2002
Abstract This paper tries to review, from a practitioner's point of view, the recent strand of literature on cointegration tests allowing for structural changes or parameter instability. Thus, we apply several tests using as an example the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. The results are consistent with the existence of cointegration between the long and the short run Spanish interest rates, with a vector (1,−1), as predicted by the theory. However, there is also evidence of structural instability, mainly at the beginning of 1994, that can be attributed to the financial changes that occurred in Spain as a result of its external commitments in the process of the Eu…
A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change
2006
Abstract This paper examines whether there is a long‐run stable equilibrium relationship between advertising and sales across the market segments of the UK car industry over the period 1971–2001. In order to achieve this goal, we allow for structural breaks in the series using cointegration techniques. The results show the existence of long‐run equilibrium relationships in all six market segments, although in four of them the relationship is not stable. In general, one structural change is detected in the late 1970s and another in the early 1990s, coinciding with two economic recessions. When we do not account for structural changes, the estimated long‐run elasticities of advertising on sal…
Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness
2002
Abstract This paper tries to find, using panel cointegration techniques, the factors explaining the real exchange rate of the Spanish peseta following the monetary approach to exchange rate determination developed in Meese and Rogoff (1988). In addition to the real interest rate differential, the real oil price (adjusted accounting for the relative oil dependence of the countries considered) is included as one of the main long-run determinants. The results are favorable to this simple model, stressing the role played by both, demand and supply factors, to explain the behavior of the peseta real exchange rate. However, the results are not homogeneous in the case of the real oil prices: this …