Search results for "conditional probability"

Output Feedback Control of Discrete Impulsive Switched Systems with State Delays and Missing Measurements

2013

Published version of an article in the journal: Mathematical Problems in Engineering. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/283426 Open Access This paper is concerned with the problem of dynamic output feedback (DOF) control for a class of uncertain discrete impulsive switched systems with state delays and missing measurements. The missing measurements are modeled as a binary switch sequence specified by a conditional probability distribution. The problem addressed is to design an output feedback controller such that for all admissible uncertainties, the closed-loop system is exponentially stable in mean square sense. By using the average dwell time approach a…

Canonical Extensions of Conditional Probabilities and Compound Conditionals

2022

In this paper we show that the probability of conjunctions and disjunctions of conditionals in a recently introduced framework of Boolean algebras of conditionals are in full agreement with the corresponding operations of conditionals as defined in the approach developed by two of the authors to conditionals as three-valued objects, with betting-based semantics, and specified as suitable random quantities. We do this by first proving that the canonical extension of a full conditional probability on a finite algebra of events to the corresponding algebra of conditionals is compatible with taking subalgebras of events.

Coherent Conditional Previsions and Proper Scoring Rules

2012

In this paper we study the relationship between the notion of coherence for conditional prevision assessments on a family of finite conditional random quantities and the notion of admissibility with respect to bounded strictly proper scoring rules. Our work extends recent results given by the last two authors of this paper on the equivalence between coherence and admissibility for conditional probability assessments. In order to prove that admissibility implies coherence a key role is played by the notion of Bregman divergence.

Logical Conditions for Coherent Qualitative and Numerical Probability Assessments

2003

Poisson Regression with Change-Point Prior in the Modelling of Disease Risk around a Point Source

2003

Bayesian estimation of the risk of a disease around a known point source of exposure is considered. The minimal requirements for data are that cases and populations at risk are known for a fixed set of concentric annuli around the point source, and each annulus has a uniquely defined distance from the source. The conventional Poisson likelihood is assumed for the counts of disease cases in each annular zone with zone-specific relative risk and parameters and, conditional on the risks, the counts are considered to be independent. The prior for the relative risk parameters is assumed to be piecewise constant at the distance having a known number of components. This prior is the well-known cha…

Response models for mixed binary and quantitative variables

1992

SUMMARY A number of special representations are considered for the joint distribution of qualitative, mostly binary, and quantitative variables. In addition to the conditional Gaussian models and to conditional Gaussian regression chain models some emphasis is placed on models derived from an underlying multivariate normal distribution and on models in which discrete probabilities are specified linearly in terms of unknown parameters. The possibilities for choosing between the models empirically are examined, as well as the testing of independence and conditional independence and the estimation of parameters. Often the testing of independence is exactly or nearly the same for a number of di…

A Comment on the Coefficient of Determination for Binary Responses

1992

Abstract Linear logistic or probit regression can be closely approximated by an unweighted least squares analysis of the regression linear in the conditional probabilities provided that these probabilities for success and failure are not too extreme. It is shown how this restriction on the probabilities translates into a restriction on the range of the coefficient of determination R 2 so that, as a consequence, R 2 is not suitable to judge the effectiveness of linear regressions with binary responses even if an important relation is present.

A Unified Approach to Likelihood Inference on Stochastic Orderings in a Nonparametric Context

1998

Abstract For data in a two-way contingency table with ordered margins, we consider various hypotheses of stochastic orders among the conditional distributions considered by rows and show that each is equivalent to requiring that an invertible transformation of the vectors of conditional row probabilities satisfies an appropriate set of linear inequalities. This leads to the construction of a general algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation under multinomial sampling and provides a simple framework for deriving the asymptotic distribution of log-likelihood ratio tests. The usual stochastic ordering and the so called uniform and likelihood ratio orderings are considered as special cases. I…

A Distribution-Free Two-Sample Equivalence Test Allowing for Tied Observations

1999

A new testing procedure is derived which enables to assess the equivalence of two arbitrary noncontinuous distribution functions from which unrelated samples are taken as the data to be analyzed. The equivalence region is defined to consist of all pairs (F, G) of distribution functions such that for independent X ∼F, Y ∼G the conditional probability of {X > Y} given {X ¬= Y} lies in some short interval around 1/2. The test rejects the null hypothesis of nonequivalence if and only if the standardized distance between the U-statistics estimator of P|X > Y | X ¬= Y] and the center of the equivalence interval (1/2 - e 1 , 1/2 + e 2 ) does not exceed a critical upper bound which has to be comput…

Reassessing Accuracy Rates of Median Decisions

2007

We show how Bruno de Finetti''s fundamental theorem of prevision has computable applications in statistical problems that involve only partial information. Specifically, we assess accuracy rates for median decision procedures used in the radiological diagnosis of asbestosis. Conditional exchangeability of individual radiologists'' diagnoses is recognized as more appropriate than independence which is commonly presumed. The FTP yields coherent bounds on probabilities of interest when available information is insufficient to determine a complete distribution. Further assertions that are natural to the problem motivate a partial ordering of conditional probabilities, extending the computation …