Search results for "conditional probability"
showing 10 items of 63 documents
Recursive estimation of the conditional geometric median in Hilbert spaces
2012
International audience; A recursive estimator of the conditional geometric median in Hilbert spaces is studied. It is based on a stochastic gradient algorithm whose aim is to minimize a weighted L1 criterion and is consequently well adapted for robust online estimation. The weights are controlled by a kernel function and an associated bandwidth. Almost sure convergence and L2 rates of convergence are proved under general conditions on the conditional distribution as well as the sequence of descent steps of the algorithm and the sequence of bandwidths. Asymptotic normality is also proved for the averaged version of the algorithm with an optimal rate of convergence. A simulation study confirm…
Pairwise Markov properties for regression graphs
2016
With a sequence of regressions, one may generate joint probability distributions. One starts with a joint, marginal distribution of context variables having possibly a concentration graph structure and continues with an ordered sequence of conditional distributions, named regressions in joint responses. The involved random variables may be discrete, continuous or of both types. Such a generating process specifies for each response a conditioning set that contains just its regressor variables, and it leads to at least one valid ordering of all nodes in the corresponding regression graph that has three types of edge: one for undirected dependences among context variables, another for undirect…
MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions
2006
Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.
Exploring regression structure with graphics
1993
We investigate the extent to which it may be possible to carry out a regression analysis using graphics alone, an idea that we refer to asgraphical regression. The limitations of this idea are explored. It is shown that graphical regression is theoretically possible with essentially no constraints on the conditional distribution of the response given the predictors, but with some conditions on marginal distribution of the predictors. Dimension reduction subspaces and added variable plots play a central role in the development. The possibility of useful methodology is explored through two examples.
On decoupling in Banach spaces
2021
AbstractWe consider decoupling inequalities for random variables taking values in a Banach space X. We restrict the class of distributions that appear as conditional distributions while decoupling and show that each adapted process can be approximated by a Haar-type expansion in which only the pre-specified conditional distributions appear. Moreover, we show that in our framework a progressive enlargement of the underlying filtration does not affect the decoupling properties (in particular, it does not affect the constants involved). As a special case, we deal with one-sided moment inequalities for decoupled dyadic (i.e., Paley–Walsh) martingales and show that Burkholder–Davis–Gundy-type in…
Rough nonlocal diffusions
2019
We consider a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation driven by a deterministic rough path which describes the conditional probability of a McKean-Vlasov diffusion with "common" noise. To study the equation we build a self-contained framework of non-linear rough integration theory which we use to study McKean-Vlasov equations perturbed by rough paths. We construct an appropriate notion of solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation and prove well-posedness.
Parameter orthogonality and conditional profile likelihood: the exponential power function case
1999
Orthogonality, according to Fisher’s metrics, between the parameters of a probability density function, as well as giving rise to a series of statistical implications, makes it possible to express a function of conditional profile likelihood with better properties than the ordinary profile likelihood function. In the present paper the parameters of exponential power function are made orthogonal and the conditional profile likelihood of the shape parameter p is determined in order to study its properties with reference to p estimation. Moreover, by means of a simulation plan, a comparison is made between the estimates of p obtained from the conditional profile log-likelihood and those obtain…
Statistics of residence time for Lévy flights in unstable parabolic potentials
2020
We analyze the residence time problem for an arbitrary Markovian process describing nonlinear systems without a steady state. We obtain exact analytical results for the statistical characteristics of the residence time. For diffusion in a fully unstable potential profile in the presence of Lévy noise we get the conditional probability density of the particle position and the average residence time. The noise-enhanced stability phenomenon is observed in the system investigated. Results from numerical simulations are in very good agreement with analytical ones.
Conjunction, Disjunction and Iterated Conditioning of Conditional Events
2013
Starting from a recent paper by S. Kaufmann, we introduce a notion of conjunction of two conditional events and then we analyze it in the setting of coherence. We give a representation of the conjoined conditional and we show that this new object is a conditional random quantity, whose set of possible values normally contains the probabilities assessed for the two conditional events. We examine some cases of logical dependencies, where the conjunction is a conditional event; moreover, we give the lower and upper bounds on the conjunction. We also examine an apparent paradox concerning stochastic independence which can actually be explained in terms of uncorrelation. We briefly introduce the…
Researching Conditional Probability Problem Solving
2014
The chapter is organized into two parts. In the first one, the main protagonist is the conditional probability problem. We show a theoretical study about conditional probability problems, identifying a particular family of problems we call ternary problems of conditional probability. We define the notions of Level, Category and Type of a problem in order to classify them into sub-families and in order to study them better. We also offer a tool we call trinomial graph that functions as a generative model for this family of problems. We show the syntax of the model that allows researchers and teachers to translate a problem in terms of the trinomial graphs language, and the consequences of th…