Search results for "currency"
showing 10 items of 165 documents
Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility
2019
The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link. This paper investigates the causal linkages in volatility between crude oil prices and six major bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in the time-frequency space using high-frequency intraday data. Special attention is paid to the potential asymmetries in the causal effects between oil and forex markets. The wavelet-based Granger causality method proposed by Olayeni (2016) is applied to quantify the causal relations in the time and frequency domains simultaneously. Moreover, the realized semivariance approach of Barndoff-Nielsen et a…
Financial stress and sovereign debt composition
2015
"Published online: 19 Oct 2015"
The Euro and European identity: The Spanish and Portuguese case
2001
Abstract The European Union proposes a potential social identity that Spain and Portugal wish to have as part and parcel of their process of modernisation and economic growth. The Euro is the symbol of this desire. As this study shows, in the process of changing to the new currency the pro-European attitudes are far more advanced than any real information citizens may have. As a result of this, the desire to be a European citizen is expressed in the new currency or any other symbol of identity that may strengthen this particular image. The support that citizens give to the Single European Currency comes more from the European identity than from the economic expectations or knowledge of the …
Portfolio performance and the Euro: Prospects for new potential EMU members
2008
Abstract Entering the EMU removes currency risk for assets originating in the Euro area while diversification opportunities are likely reduced. Taking the perspective of an investor in one of the 12 countries that joined the EU in 2004–2007, we contrast actual optimal composition of international equity holdings against two artificial scenarios: costless hedging against exchange rate risk and presuming the local market to be part of the EMU. State specific optimal portfolios are determined from realized covariances for the period 2000–2006. Optimized risk is found smaller under currency unification and implied Sharp ratios signal significant benefits of EMU participation.
Trade imbalances within the euro area and with respect to the rest of the world
2015
Abstract Many studies have explored the determinants of current account balances in Europe. However, only in a few studies has trade balance been decomposed into intra balance, trade balance vis-a-vis the euro area, and extra balance, trade balance vis-a-vis the rest of the world. This decomposition is necessary for us to understand why some core euro area countries are acting as financial intermediaries for the periphery countries. Furthermore, the determinants of intra and extra balances might be different because nominal exchange rate cannot adjust between the EMU countries while their financial markets are highly integrated. Thus, we apply this decomposition and supplement the previous …
Effects of the European Monetary Union on High-Technology Exports
2021
AbstractOur study estimates the effects of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on high-technology (HT) export and assesses the potential knowledge spillovers of such trade. Irrespective of the importance of the HT trade channel, none of the previous studies in the literature focus on the effects of a common currency on HT trade. Increasing trade in the HT sector may lead to more efficient use of resources and help countries to move towards a knowledge-based economy. Moreover, it may lead to higher overall growth. After considering multilateral resistances, pair fixed effects and bias correction in the preferred (three-way bias-corrected) model, EMU membership becomes negative and statisticall…
Essays in Macroeconomics: Growth, Macroeconomic Volatility and Currency Unions
2011
Essays in Macroeconomics: Growth, Macroeconomic Volatility and Currency Unions Essays in Macroeconomics: Growth, Macroeconomic Volatility and Currency Unions
Exchange Rate Volatility in the Balkans and Eastern Europe: Implications for International Investments
2016
Our paper’s objective is to study the volatility of exchange rates from the region that have not yet adopted the Euro and are not members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism II by considering the exchange rate regime and the implications of currency volatility for foreign capital flows. We model exchange rate volatility by using standard deviations of daily logarithmic changes in the exchange rates, rolling standard deviations, Hodrick-Prescott filters to detect the trends in volatility and ARIMA models. We find that currency volatility remains a strong issue for these countries and that central banks have attempted to manage it, particularly after the global financial crisis. Spikes in monthly …
The Economics of Monetary Union: The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas
2013
In the 1960s, the theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCAs) emerged as a by-product of the theoretical debate between fixed and flexible exchange rates. The OCAs approach singles out an economic characteristic to define an economic domain where there is exchange rate fixity erga intra, while there is exchange rate flexibility erga extra. In an optimum currency area, exchange rates fixity prevails internally without any type of internal or external disequilibrium. Each single characteristic ensures that floating or regular adjustments in nominal exchange rates are neither necessary, efficient nor desirable for stabilisation purposes. The literature proposes several economic criteria: factor mo…
Media Tone Goes Viral: Global Evidence from the Currency Market
2020
Using several million news and social media articles related to currencies, we examine the role of media tone in predicting the exchange rate returns of 12 developed and 24 emerging markets from 1998 to 2016. The text-based currency Media tone is a strong positive predictor of currency excess returns beyond fundamentals of one to three months ahead and six months cumulatively, with the average in-sample and out-of-sample R^2s of 4.45% and 9.03% in the US. The one-month predictability is observed in four other developed markets and 18 emerging market currencies, with the latter showing a stronger pattern. This predictability encompasses previous month currency returns, currency factors, macr…