Search results for "edicta"
showing 10 items of 112 documents
The East African March–May Rainy Season: Associated Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability over the 1968–97 Period
2002
Abstract This paper focuses on the East African March–May “long rains.” Particularly, it investigates the atmospheric patterns associated to the March–May rainfall anomalies, then proposes a seasonal prediction model. In a preliminary step, in order to define a regional rainfall index, a new form of extended principal component analysis is performed, aimed at capturing both the spatial and intraseasonal rainfall coherence. What emerges is that although the long rains exhibit a low temporal coherence, calling for a separation between the months of March–April and May in teleconnection studies, they show a relatively strong spatial consistency over the Kenya–Uganda inland region. From composi…
Seasonal reproducibility and predictability of the West African Monsoon in coupled GCMs
2009
In the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project, an ensemble prediction system based on five different state-of-the-art European coupled models has been developed. This study evaluates the performance of these models for forecasting the West African monsoon (WAM) at the monthly time scale. From simulations started the 1 May of each year and covering the period 1991–2001, the reproducibility and potential predictability (PP) of key parameters of the WAM—rainfall, zonal and meridional wind at four levels from the surface to 200 hPa, and specific humidity, from July to September—are assessed. The Sahelian rainfall mode of variability is not accurately reproduced contrary to the Guinean rainfall …
Multi-scale study of the rainy season onset over the Sudano-Sahelian belt: Spatial coherence and potential predictability
2011
The spatial coherence of boreal monsoon onset (July-September) over the western and central Sahel is studied through the analysis of daily rainfall records for 136 rain-gauges from 1950-2000. Onset of the rainy season has been defined using 3 definitions which rely on 3 overlapped spatial scales: (i) the regional scale, i.e. the northward ITCZ jump from Guinean to Soudano-Sahelian latitudes, (ii) the meso-scale related with the first occurrence of the main rainfall-generating phenomenon, that is squall line and (iii) the local-scale of the first rainfall recorded at the rain-gauge. Local and meso-scale onsets show a weak degree of instantaneous and inter-annual spatial coherence, meaning th…
Reduction in site fidelity with smaller spatial scale may suggest scale-dependent information use
2014
Animals change the strategy that they use to select breeding sites at the spatial scales of habitat, patch, and microhabitat. In this regard, breeding site fidelity is expected to vary according to environmental predictability, which, in turn, is expected to differ between each spatial scale. However, whether or not animals change their degree of site fidelity at different spatial scales remains unclear. We captured and released males of the terrestrial frog Pseudophryne bibronii into alternative patches within a breeding habitat and determined the extent to which site fidelity influenced individual nest-site choice. We found that males tended to return to their original patch rather than r…
The term structure of volatility predictability
2020
Volatility forecasting is crucial for portfolio management, risk management, and pricing of derivative securities. Still, little is known about the accuracy of volatility forecasts and the horizon of volatility predictability. This paper aims to fill these gaps in the literature. We begin this paper by introducing the notions of the spot and forward predicted volatilities and propose to describe the term structure of volatility predictability by the spot and forward forecast accuracy curves. Then we perform a comprehensive study on the term structure of volatility predictability in the stock and foreign exchange markets. Our results quantify the volatility forecast accuracy across horizons …
Time–carbonyl groups equivalence in photo-oxidative aging of virgin/recycled polymer blends
2004
AbstractThe photo-oxidation behaviour of polymers is strongly dependent on the initial amount of carbonyl groups along the chains. The growing use of recycled post-consumer polymers coming from products used outdoors and then photo-oxidised, both pure and blended with the same virgin polymer, gives rise to an unpredictable behaviour of weathering resistance of products made with these materials. The present work shows that the carbonyl group–exposure time curves can be shifted along the time axis to give a single generalised master plot. It is then possible to predict the formation of the new carbonyl groups by knowing only the initial amount of the same carbonyl groups. The same shift fact…
Exploring the Effectiveness of Dialectical Behavior Therapy Versus Systems Training for Emotional Predictability and Problem Solving in a Sample of P…
2021
Dialectical behavior therapy (DBT) and systems training for emotional predictability and problem solving (STEPPS) are two treatment protocols for people with borderline personality disorder (BPD) that have received important empirical support. However, their possible differential effectiveness has not yet been studied. The objective of this study is to explore the effectiveness of these two treatment programs. A nonrandomized clinical trial was carried out in which both treatments were applied for six months. The sample consisted of 72 patients diagnosed with BPD. The results indicate that both groups experienced a statistically significant reduction in BPD symptom, emotional regulation, i…
Information Dynamics of Electric Field Intensity before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic.
2022
This work investigates the temporal statistical structure of time series of electric field (EF) intensity recorded with the aim of exploring the dynamical patterns associated with periods with different human activity in urban areas. The analyzed time series were obtained from a sensor of the EMF RATEL monitoring system installed in the campus area of the University of Novi Sad, Serbia. The sensor performs wideband cumulative EF intensity monitoring of all active commercial EF sources, thus including those linked to human utilization of wireless communication systems. Monitoring was performed continuously during the years 2019 and 2020, allowing us to investigate the effects on the patterns…
Les vagues de chaleur au Sahel : caractérisation, mécanismes, prévisibilité.
2016
The mechanisms controlling Sahelian heat wave (HW) variability are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the GSOD observational database and ERA-Interim reanalyses. HW events are analyzed through all terms of the atmospheric energy balance, showing a predominant role of incoming shortwave radiation on daily maximum temperature (Tx) and atmospheric water vapor on minimum temperature (Tn). The low-frequency warming trend, not explained by the previous terms, is thought to relate to the increase of greenhouse gases concentrations, due to anthropogenic emissions. The predictability of Sahelian HW events is assessed for lead times reaching up to 15 days. The model's skill, biases and uncertaint…
CHOOSING OF OPTIMAL REFERENCE SAMPLES FOR BOREAL LAKE CHLOROPHYLL A CONCENTRATION MODELING USING AERIAL HYPERSPECTRAL DATA
2018
Abstract. Optical remote sensing has potential to overcome the limitations of point estimations of lake water quality by providing spatial and temporal information. In open ocean waters the optical properties are dominated by phytoplankton density, while the relationship between color and the constituents is more complicated in inland waters varying regionally and seasonally. Concerning the difficulties relating to comprehensive modeling of complex inland and coastal waters, the alternative approach is considered in this paper: the raw digital numbers (DN) recorded using aerial remote hyperspectral sensing are used without corrections and derived by means of regression modeling to predict C…