Search results for "election"

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models

2011

Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…

Data from the GIPEyOP online election poll for the 2015 Spanish General election.

2020

Abstract The general elections of 2015 in Spain took place in the middle of the Great Recession after several years of austerity economic policies. This election caused a political earthquake that shook the Spanish party system. During the campaign of that election, GIPEyOP (Elections and Public Opinion Research Group from University of Valencia) conducted a survey to collect relevant data about the electorate beliefs, intentions and motivations. This article describes the data set attained, which comprises 71 variables after removing, to ensure full anonymity, those variables that would potentially allow respondents to be identified. Respondents answered a self-administered online question…

Health-related quality of life in elderly cancer patients, elderly non-cancer patients and an elderly general population

2009

Health-related quality of life (QoL) is a major topic within the care for cancer patients (CP). Compared with the general population (GP), QoL of CP is worse in most dimensions; however, only few data comparing QoL of CP with that of other patients have been provided so far. We determined QoL with the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 questionnaire in hospitalized patients aged 60 years and older: 195 CP and 130 patients treated for other medical disorders (MP). In addition, data were compared with an age- and gender-stratified German GP. Explorative statistical analyses were performed. The CP aged >or=70 years compared with those aged 60-69 years had decrea…

Angleterre à l'époque moderne

2001

Penalized regression and clustering in high-dimensional data

The main goal of this Thesis is to describe numerous statistical techniques that deal with high-dimensional genomic data. The Thesis begins with a review of the literature on penalized regression models, with particular attention to least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) or L1-penalty methods. L1 logistic/multinomial regression models are used for variable selection and discriminant analysis with a binary/categorical response variable. The Thesis discusses and compares several methods that are commonly utilized in genetics, and introduces new strategies to select markers according to their informative content and to discriminate clusters by offering reduced panels for popul…

Does the addition of single joint exercises to a resistance training program improve changes in performance and anthropometric measures in untrained …

2018

The present study compared changes in muscle performance and anthropometric measures in young men performing resistance training (RT) programs composed of only multi joint (MJ) exercises, or with the addition of single joint (SJ) exercises (MJ+SJ). Twenty untrained men were randomized to MJ or MJ+SJ groups for 8 weeks. Both groups performed the same MJ exercises. The difference was that the MJ+SJ group added SJ exercises for upper and lower limbs. Participants were tested for 10 repetitions maximum (10RM), flexed arm circumference, and biceps and triceps skinfolds. Both groups significantly increased 10RM load for the bench press (MJ 38.5%, MJ+SJ 40.1%), elbow extension (MJ 28.7%, MJ+SJ 31.…

Not all sex ratios are equal : the Fisher condition, parental care and sexual selection

2017

The term ‘sex roles’ encapsulates male–female differences in mate searching, competitive traits that increase mating/fertilization opportunities, choosiness about mates and parental care. Theoretical models suggest that biased sex ratios drive the evolution of sex roles. To model sex role evolution, it is essential to note that in most sexually reproducing species (haplodiploid insects are an exception), each offspring has one father and one mother. Consequently, the total number of offspring produced by each sex is identical, so the mean number of offspring produced by individuals of each sex depends on the sex ratio (Fisher condition). Similarly, the total number of heterosexual matings …

How representative are referendums? Evidence from 20 years of Swiss referendums

2017

Direct democracy allows citizens to reverse decisions made by legislatures and even initiate new laws which parliaments are unwilling to pass, thereby, as its proponents argue, leading to more representative policies than would have obtained under a purely representative democracy. Yet, turnout in referendums is usually lower than in parliamentary elections and tends to be skewed towards citizens of high socio-economic status. Consequently, critics of direct democracy argue that referendum outcomes may not be representative of the preferences of the population at large. We test this assertion using a compilation of post-referendum surveys encompassing 148 national referendums held in Switze…

How challenging RADseq data turned out to favor coalescent-based species tree inference. A case study in Aichryson (Crassulaceae)

2022

Analysing multiple genomic regions while incorporating detection and qualification of discordance among regions has become standard for understanding phylogenetic relationships. In plants, which usually have comparatively large genomes, this is feasible by the combination of reduced-representation library (RRL) methods and high-throughput sequencing enabling the cost effective acquisition of genomic data for thousands of loci from hundreds of samples. One popular RRL method is RADseq. A major disadvantage of established RADseq approaches is the rather short fragment and sequencing range, leading to loci of little individual phylogenetic information. This issue hampers the application of coa…

Evolutionary stability of topologically associating domains is associated with conserved gene regulation

2018

AbstractBackgroundThe human genome is highly organized in the three-dimensional nucleus. Chromosomes fold locally into topologically associating domains (TADs) defined by increased intra-domain chromatin contacts. TADs contribute to gene regulation by restricting chromatin interactions of regulatory sequences, such as enhancers, with their target genes. Disruption of TADs can result in altered gene expression and is associated to genetic diseases and cancers. However, it is not clear to which extent TAD regions are conserved in evolution and whether disruption of TADs by evolutionary rearrangements can alter gene expression.ResultsHere, we hypothesize that TADs represent essential functiona…