Search results for "error"

Economía criminal y terror

2001

Evaluation of Disaggregation Methods for Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature to Landsat Spatial Resolution in Barrax Test Site

2016

Thermal infrared (TIR) data are usually acquired at a coarser spatial resolution (CR) than visible and near infrared (VNIR). Several disaggregation methods have been recently developed to enhance the TIR spatial resolution using VNIR data. These approaches are based on the retrieval of a relation between TIR and VNIR data at CR, or training of a neural network, to be applied at the fine resolution afterward. In this work, different disaggregation methods are applied to the combination of two different sensors in the experimental test site of Barrax, Spain. The main objective is to test the feasibility of these techniques when applied to satellites provided with no TIR bands. Landsat and mod…

A spatially consistent downscaling approach for SMOS using an adaptive window

2017

The European Space Agency (ESA)'s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) is the first spaceborne mission using L-band radiometry to monitor the Earth's global surface soil moisture (SM). After more than 7 years in orbit, many studies have contributed to improve the quality and applicability of SMOS-derived SM maps. In this research, a novel downscaling algorithm for SMOS is proposed to obtain high-resolution (HR) SM maps at 1 km (L4), from the ∼40 km native resolution of the instrument. This algorithm introduces the concept of a shape adaptive moving window as an improvement of the current semi-empirical downscaling approach at SMOS Barcelona Expert Center, based on the “universal triangle…

Approaches to relativistic positioning around Earth and error estimations

2016

In the context of relativistic positioning, the coordinates of a given user may be calculated by using suitable information broadcast by a 4-tuple of satellites. Our 4-tuples belong to the Galileo constellation. Recently, we estimated the positioning errors due to uncertainties in the satellite world lines (U-errors). A distribution of U-errors was obtained, at various times, in a set of points covering a large region surrounding Earth. Here, the positioning errors associated to the simplifying assumption that photons move in Minkowski space-time (S-errors) are estimated and compared with the U-errors. Both errors have been calculated for the same points and times to make comparisons possib…

Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region

2013

Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of…

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts

2017

The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order …

Balloon-borne match measurements of midlatitude cirrus clouds

2014

Observations of high supersaturations with respect to ice inside cirrus clouds with high ice water content (> 0.01 g kg−1) and high crystal number densities (> 1 cm−3) are challenging our understanding of cloud microphysics and of climate feedback processes in the upper troposphere. However, single measurements of a cloudy air mass provide only a snapshot from which the persistence of ice supersaturation cannot be judged. We introduce here the "cirrus match technique" to obtain information about the evolution of clouds and their saturation ratio. The aim of these coordinated balloon soundings is to analyze the same air mass twice. To this end the standard radiosonde equipment is complemente…

Two-days ahead prediction of daily maximum concentrations of SO2, O3, PM10, NO2, CO in the urban area of Palermo, Italy

2007

Abstract Artificial neural networks are functional alternative techniques in modelling the intricate vehicular exhaust emission dispersion phenomenon. Pollutant predictions are notoriously complex when using either deterministic or stochastic models, which explains why this model was developed using a neural network. Neural networks have the ability to learn about non-linear relationships between the used variables. In this paper a recurrent neural network (Elman model) based forecaster for the prediction of daily maximum concentrations of SO2, O3, PM10, NO2, CO in the city of Palermo is proposed. The effectiveness of the presented forecaster was tested using a time series recorded between …

Sensitivity of the SIMulation-EXtrapolation (SIMEX) methodology to mis-specification of the statistical properties of the measurement errors

2023

In hydrometeorological and environmental studies, it is common to seek relations between two variables (predictand and predictor), one of which (predictor) is affected by uncertainties. These errors unavoidably affect the results of the analyses by providing erroneous estimates of the parameters of the predictor-predictand model. A possible solution is represented by the SIMulation-EXtrapolation (SIMEX) methodology. This approach follows two steps: (1) perturbation of the predictor with increasing levels of uncertainties (multiples of the known error variance); and (2) finding a relation between the model's parameters and level of uncertainty, which allows their extrapolation to the error-f…

Potential Vorticity Dynamics of Forecast Errors: A Quantitative Case Study

2018

Abstract Synoptic-scale error growth near the tropopause is investigated from a process-based perspective. Following previous work, a potential vorticity (PV) error tendency equation is derived and partitioned into individual contributions to yield insight into the processes governing error growth near the tropopause. Importantly, we focus here on the further amplification of preexisting errors and not on the origin of errors. The individual contributions to error growth are quantified in a case study of a 6-day forecast. In this case, localized mesoscale error maxima have formed by forecast day 2. These maxima organize into a wavelike pattern and reach the Rossby wave scale around forecast…