Search results for "exchange rate"
showing 10 items of 102 documents
The role of Institutions in explaining wage determination in the Euro Area: a panel cointegration approach
2016
Over the last 15 years, the evolution of labor costs has been very diverse across EMU countries. Since wages have important second-round effects on prices and competitiveness, and EMU countries do not have the tool of the nominal exchange rate to correct for such imbalances, understanding the determinants of the wage is a matter of increasing concern and debate. We estimate the equilibrium wage equation for the Euro Area over the period 1995-2011 using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross-section dependence and structural breaks. The results show that the equilibrium wage has a positive relation with productivity and negative relation with unemployment, as expected. We also i…
El tipo de cambio real dólar-euro y el diferencial de intereses reales
2006
This paper investigates whether threshold effects exist in the relationship between dollar-euro real exchange rate and real interest differential, over the period January 1984 to December 2004. We specify a three-regime threshold model and the results provide evidence that there is no threshold effect in the short term, but the nonlinear behaviour of real exchange rate implies threshold effect in the long term. On the other hand, the nonlinearity into the behaviour of real exchange rates can be modelled by a Band-TAR which implies a symmetric response to the real interest differential outside the bank. Finally, into the threshold band the behaviour of real exchange rate is near to follow a …
UNEMPLOYMENT PERSISTENCE AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF EXCHANGE RATE PEGS
2010
Published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Volume 57, No. 1, February 2010: 85-102
The euro–dollar exchange rate and equity flows
2009
Abstract I examine equity flows between the US and the euro area and their impact on the euro–dollar exchange rate. I explain equity flows by examining the behavior of an international investor who maintains a minimum variance portfolio. An excess of euro area equity returns over US equity returns generates a flow of equity from the euro area to the US. The equity flow, the purchase of US equities by the euro-area residents, causes appreciation (depreciation) of the dollar (euro), while the purchase of euro area equities by US residents causes appreciation (depreciation) of the euro (dollar).
The response of Brent crude oil to the European central bank monetary policy
2022
Este artículo examina el impacto de las decisiones de política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) sobre los precios del petróleo y la liquidez mediante un estudio de eventos con datos intradía. Analizamos el período de enero de 1999 a diciembre de 2020, que incluye la crisis financiera que comenzó en agosto de 2007. Nuestros resultados muestran una respuesta significativa de los rendimientos del petróleo solo durante la crisis financiera. Específicamente, encontramos que los rendimientos de los futuros de petróleo crudo Brent respondieron negativamente a variaciones inesperadas en la prima de riesgo italiana como medida de acciones de política monetaria no convencionales, y positivam…
A dynamic analysis of SP 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates.
2018
In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointe-gration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Gra…
The Speed of Exchange Rate Pass-Through
2016
On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank terminated its minimum exchange rate policy of one euro against 1.2 Swiss francs. This policy shift resulted in a sharp, unanticipated and permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc by more than 11% against the euro. We analyze the exchange rate pass-through into import unit values of this shock at the daily frequency using Swiss transaction-level trade data. Our key findings are twofold. First, for goods invoiced in euro the pass-through is immediate and complete. This finding is consistent with no systematic nominal price adjustment in this subset of goods. Second, for goods invoiced in Swiss francs the pass-through is partial and very fast: it …
A macroeconomic analysis of the public investments in European combined transport
2009
Intermodal transport has been recognized as a priority by the European Union, that has defined different budget allocations of investments to improve the shifting from road to intermodal transport, which is more sustainable. In this context, the main aim of the paper is to discuss the macroeconomic effects, in terms of economic growth, welfare and trade, of these public investments for combined transport, which aspects have been neglected in literature. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model has been used. The main results have been that the European Union benefits from these investments, but at international level, USA and Japan would lose in terms of welfare. Furthermore, th…
Pricing of Asian exchange rate options under stochastic interest rates as a sum of options
2002
The aim of the paper is to develop pricing formulas for long term European type Asian options written on the exchange rate in a two currency economy. The exchange rate as well as the foreign and domestic zero coupon bond prices are assumed to follow geometric Brownian motions. The emphasis is devoted to the discretely sampled Asian option. It is shown how the value of this option can be approximated as the sum of Black-Scholes options. The formula is obtained under the extension of results developed by Rogers and Shi (1995) and Jamshidian (1991). In addition bounds for the pricing error are determined. Comparing with Monte Carlo simulation the pricing is found to be very precise.
Exchange Rates and Stock Prices in the MENA countries: What Role for Oil?
2011
This paper considers the linkage between stock prices and exchange rates in four MENA (Middle East and North Africa) emerging markets. In contrast to the existing evidence that uses a global market index to uncover such a relationship it is found that for the sample countries oil prices emerge as the dominant factor in the above relationship. The paper considers the presence of regime shifts and evidence is found of cointegration only for the period following the 1999 oil price shock. Readjustment towards equilibrium in each stock market occurs via oil price changes. Finally, a number of robustness checks are performed and persistence profiles produced. Wiley Online Library