Search results for "fiscal"
showing 10 items of 448 documents
Fiscal sustainability in the EU: From the short-term risk to the long-term challenge
2015
Abstract The paper analyses fiscal sustainability of public debt using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. First, we identify the short-term risk for fiscal stress at country level; second, we investigate the assumption of convergence towards the government debt threshold (medium-term challenge); and, third, the requirement that debt projections do not show unsustainable trends (long-term challenge). The empirical implementation includes 18 EU Member States. Our findings show that the constant tax rate that stabilizes the public debt converges to 50 percentage of GDP for all the sample countries and tax revenues are the main driving forces for fiscal sustainability. Also our fin…
The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion
2014
We investigate the determinants of the volatility of fiscal policy discretion. Using a linear dynamic panel dataset model for 104 countries from 1980 to 2006 and a system-GMM estimator,we find that more government instability, less democracy and presidentialist systems increase the volatility of the discretionary component of fiscal policy. Additionally, we show that countries with a larger size, a smaller degree of financial openness, and a stable exchange rate system are more insured against the uncertainty about the conduct of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various regional dummy variables, diferent sub-sets of countries and the presence of high inflation and crisis episodes.
Automatic stabilizers, fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability
2006
This paper analyzes the effect of the fiscal structure upon the trade-off between inflation and output stabilization in the presence of technological shocks in a DGE model with nominal and real rigidities. The model reproduces the main features of European economies and it integrates a rich menu of fiscal variables as well as a target on the debt to output ratio. The main result of this paper is that distortionary taxes tend to increase output volatility relative to lump-sum taxes unless substantial rigidities are present. We explore in detail the mechanisms that generate such a result, and the conditions under which the supply-side effects of distortionary taxes and the procyclical behavio…
Fiscal Devaluations in EMU
2013
2013SummaryWe use a small open economy general equilibrium model to analyse the effects of a fiscal devalua-tion in an EMU country. The model has been calibrated for the Spanish economy, which is a goodexample of the advantages of a change in the tax mix given that its tax system shows a positive biasin the ratio of social security contributions over consumption taxes. The preliminary empirical evi-dence for European countries shows that this bias was negatively correlated with the current accountbalance in the expansionary years leading up to the 2009 crisis, a period when many EMU membersaccumulated large external imbalances. Our simulation results point to significant positive effects of…
The Analysis on the Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy in the EU Member States
2013
Abstract This paper deals with the topic of cyclicality of fiscal policy. The main purpose of this paper is to determine the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy in the EU member states, using historical time series for all the European countries during the period between 1995- 2011. The results pointed out that the procyclical fiscal policies are a feature of developing countries and the countercyclical and acyclical fiscal policies are a feature of developed counties.
Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility and Growth
2009
This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal convergence on business cycle volatility and growth. Using a panel 21 OECD countries (including 11 EMU countries) and 40 years of data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have smoother business cycles. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with smoother business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced business cycle volatility through higher fiscal convergence stimulates growth. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant and robust.
Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain
2015
"Available online 1 August 2014"
The Economic Rationale of Fiscal Rules in OCAs: The Stability and Growth Pact and the Excessive Deficit Procedure
2013
This chapter examines the case of different regions within a single country that wish to share a common currency, even though they have divergent trends in unemployment, inflation, wages, non-wage costs and productivity. This situation compares with the case of a group of EU countries, each with its own decentralised national budget, that have established a monetary union and that are facing asymmetric shocks. As such an economic context requires fiscal commitments from national governments, we analyse the economic rationale of setting fiscal rules for a common currency area and the resulting EU institutional frame for the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the Excessive Deficit Procedure …
Exploring Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Local Government: Moving Beyond an Aggregated Approach
2014
There is a renewed interest in the fiscal health of local governments in the United States, which is being driven in part by academic research, professional organizations, and the economy. This renewed interest also includes how local governments use their cash reserves for countercyclical fiscal policy, which is a stream of research that has received minimal attention in the literature. We respond in this article by exploring how 97 North Carolina counties used their cash reserves from 2005 to 2012, which includes the great recession of 2008 and 2009. Our findings provide some evidence of countercyclical fiscal policy in local government when exploring the use of cash reserves from an aggr…
Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy in Romania?
2020
At both macroeconomic and national level, in recent decades, European tax policies have shown a particular interest in addressing the spectrum of risk issues in terms of maturing the business environment and the lack of sustainable development of the economy. In Romania there has been a significant increase in public debt, which is increasingly threatening fiscal sustainability. This is due to fiscal rules that restrict the applicability of fiscal policy to balancing the national economy. However, fiscal policy did not act in the direction of economic recovery during the crisis that started in the last quarter of 2008, which had a negative impact on the Romanian business environment. Object…