Search results for "forcing"

Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change.

2017

12 pages; International audience; The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920–2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variabilit…

Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies

2013

Seamless quantification of past and present climate variability is needed to understand the Earth’s climate well enough to make accurate predictions for the future. This study addresses whether tree-ring-dominated proxy data properly represent the frequency spectrum of true climate variability. The results challenge the validity of detection and attribution investigations based on these data. External forcing and internal dynamics result in climate system variability ranging from sub-daily weather to multi-centennial trends and beyond1,2. State-of-the-art palaeoclimatic methods routinely use hydroclimatic proxies to reconstruct temperature (for example, refs 3, 4), possibly blurring differe…

Temperature Covariance in Tree Ring Reconstructions and Model Simulations Over the Past Millennium

2017

Spatial covariance in the simulated temperature evolution over the past millennium has been reported to exceed that of multiproxy-based reconstructions. Here we use tree ring-based temperature reco ...

2021

Intracratonic basins tend to subside much longer than the timescale predicted by thermal relaxation of the lithosphere. Many hypotheses have been suggested to explain their longevity, yet few have been tested using quantitative thermo-mechanical numerical models, which capture the dynamic of the lithosphere. Lithospheric-scale geodynamic modelling preserving the tectono-stratigraphic architecture of these basins is challenging because they display only few kilometres of subsidence over 1000 of km during time periods exceeding 250 Myr. Here we present simulations that are designed to examine the relative role of thermal anomaly, tectonics and heterogeneity of the lithosphere on the dynamics …

ERA5-Land: A state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications

2021

Framed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Commission, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing an enhanced global dataset for the land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5), hereafter referred to as ERA5-Land. Once completed, the period covered will span from 1950 to the present, with continuous updates to support land monitoring applications. ERA5-Land describes the evolution of the water and energy cycles over land in a consistent manner over the production period, which, among others, could be used to analyse trends and anomalies. This is achieved through global high-resolution numerical integrat…

Toward a Comprehensive Dam Monitoring: On-Site and Remote-Retrieved Forcing Factors and Resulting Displacements (GNSS and PS–InSAR)

2021

Many factors can influence the displacements of a dam, including water level variability and environmental temperatures, in addition to the dam composition. In this work, optical-based classification, thermal diachronic analysis, and a quasi-PS (Persistent Scatter) Interferometric SAR technique have been applied to determine both forcing factors and resulting displacements of the crest of the Castello dam (South Italy) over a one-year time period. The dataset includes Sentinel-1A images acquired in Interferometric Wide swath mode using the Terrain Observation with Progressive Scans SAR (TOPSAR); Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) thermal images, and Global Navigation Satellite System …

2016

The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarc…

High-resolution 40Ar/39Ar chronostratigraphy of the post-caldera (<20 ka) volcanic activity at Pantelleria, Sicily Strait

2011

Abstract The island of Pantelleria (Sicily Strait), the type locality for pantellerite, has been the locus of major caldera-forming eruptions that culminated, ca. 50 ka ago, in the formation of the Cinque Denti caldera produced by the Green Tuff eruption. The post-caldera silicic activity since that time has been mostly confined inside the caldera and consists of smaller-energy eruptions represented by more than twenty coalescing pantelleritic centers structurally controlled by resurgence and trapdoor faulting of the caldera floor. A high-resolution 40Ar/39Ar study was conducted on key units spanning the recent (post-20 ka) intracaldera activity to better characterize the present-day status…

Effect of the Ordovician paleogeography on the (in)stability of the climate.

2014

The Ordovician Period (485–443 Ma) is characterized by abundant evidence for continental-sized ice sheets. Modeling studies published so far require a sharp CO2 drawdown to initiate this glaciation. They mostly used non-dynamic slab mixed-layer ocean models. Here, we use a general circulation model with coupled components for ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice to examine the response of Ordovician climate to changes in CO2 and paleogeography. We conduct experiments for a wide range of CO2 (from 16 to 2 times the preindustrial atmospheric CO2 level (PAL)) and for two continental configurations (at 470 and at 450 Ma) mimicking the Middle and the Late Ordovician conditions. We find that the temper…

Insolation cycles as a major control equatorial Indian Ocean primary production

1997

Analysis of a continuous sedimentary record taken in the Maldives indicates that strong primary production fluctuations (70 to 390 grams of carbon per square meter per year) have occurred in the equatorial Indian Ocean during the past 910,000 years. The record of primary production is coherent and in phase with the February equatorial insolation, whereas it shows diverse phase behavior with δ 18 O, depending on the orbital frequency (eccentricity, obliquity, or precession) examined. These observations imply a direct control of productivity in the equatorial oceanic system by insolation. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, productivity is driven by the wind intensity of westerlies, which is rel…