Search results for "forecast"
showing 10 items of 417 documents
Isolating the climate change impacts on air-pollution-related-pathologies over central and southern Europe – a modelling approach on cases and costs
2019
Air pollution has important implications for human health and associated external costs to society and is closely related to climate change. This contribution tries to assess the impacts of present (1996-2015) and future (2071-2100 under RCP8.5) air pollution on several cardiovascular and respiratory pathologies and estimate the difference in the costs associated with these health impacts on the European population. For this, air quality data from the regional chemistry-climate modelling system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) are used, together with some epidemiological information from the European Commission. The methodology considered…
The effects of the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones on Ethiopian drought
1998
Tropical cyclones are one of the prominent weather systems that are generated over the tropical oceans. The cyclones that develop in the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) usually travel west then southwest and finally recurve to southeast, generally before reaching the East African coast. However, it is shown in this study how SWIO-tropical cyclones/depressions can indirectly affect Ethiopian weather. Using correlation and composite analyses, interannual and intraseasonal rainfall variations in Ethiopia were compared with the frequency and time of occurrence of the tropical cyclones. Years showing the consecutive occurrence of several tropical depressions over the SWIO coincide with the drought…
Adapting rail and road networks to weather extremes: Case studies for southern Germany and Austria
2013
Published version of an article in the journal: Natural Hazards. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0969-3 The assessment of the current impacts of extreme weather conditions on transport systems reveals high costs in specific locations. Prominent examples for Europe are the economic consequences of the harsh winter periods 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and the floods in Austria, Eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2005 and 2007. Departing from the EC-funded project WEATHER, this paper delves into the subject of adaptation strategies by revisiting the project’s general findings on adaptation strategies and by adding two specific cases: (1) adv…
Improving RAMS and WRF mesoscale forecasts over two distinct vegetation covers using an appropriate thermal roughness length parameterization
2019
Land Surface Models (LSM) have shown some difficulties to properly simulate day-time 2-m air and surface skin temperatures. This kind of models are coupled to atmospheric models in mesoscale modelling, such as the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This model coupling is used within Numerical Weather Prediction Systems (NWP) in order to forecast key physical processes for agricultural meteorology and forestry as well as in ecological modelling. The current study first evaluates the surface energy fluxes and temperatures simulated by these two state-of-the-art NWP models over two distinct vegetated covers, one corresponding to a …
SAL—A Novel Quality Measure for the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
2008
Abstract A novel object-based quality measure, which contains three distinct components that consider aspects of the structure (S), amplitude (A), and location (L) of the precipitation field in a prespecified domain (e.g., a river catchment) is introduced for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). This quality measure is referred to as SAL. The amplitude component A measures the relative deviation of the domain-averaged QPF from observations. Positive values of A indicate an overestimation of total precipitation; negative values indicate an underestimation. For the components S and L, coherent precipitation objects are separately identified in the forecast and obser…
Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region
2013
Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of…
Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Application of the SAL Technique
2009
Abstract In this study, a recently introduced feature-based quality measure called SAL, which provides information about the structure, amplitude, and location of a quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in a prespecified domain, is applied to different sets of synthetic and realistic QPFs in the United States. The focus is on a detailed discussion of selected cases and on the comparison of the verification results obtained with SAL and some classical gridpoint-based error measures. For simple geometric precipitation objects it is shown that SAL adequately captures errors in the size and location of the objects, however, not in their orientation. The artificially modified (so-called fake…
Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts
2017
The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order …
Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model
2014
Abstract A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The model is started twice daily with a forecast range of 72 h. For the period June 2007 to August 2010 the verification of the model has been done using a series of automatic meteorological stations from the CEAM network and located within the Valencia Region (Western Mediterranean Basin). Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction of the output of the model have been compared with observations. For these variables, an operational verification has been performed by computing different statistical scores for 18 weather stations. This verif…
Modeling impacts of super cool roofs on air temperature at pedestrian level in mesoscale and microscale climate models
2021
Abstract Passive daytime radiative cooling is gaining increasing relevance as recent studies report that newly developed materials with very high reflectivity and emissivity could be able to effectively reduce urban heat stress, when applied as roofing material (super cool roofs). A recent microscale sensitivity study with ENVI-met modeled the impact of super cool roofs with maximum air temperature reductions of around 0.85 K at pedestrian level for an idealized model area. To verify these findings in real urban structures featuring complex building morphologies and varying meteorological conditions, we conducted climate simulations for two contrasting cities: New York City, NY, and Phoenix…