Search results for "forecasting"
showing 9 items of 329 documents
Étude climatique de la mousson vietnamienne et applications à la prévision saisonnière
2008
This thesis aims at documenting the physical and dynamic processes associated with the monsoon circulation of Vietnamese regional and synoptic scales, to explore the predictability of its key components and develop statistical and dynamical methods for forecasting the monsoon onset and seasonal. It is divided into two parts. The first part is, in fact, a climate study based on analysis of diagnostic data: - first, the monthly rainfall and temperature data station over the period 1960-2000 are used to analyze the cycle and the variability of these fields on the seven traditional climatic regions of Vietnam using the observed precipitation in various stations. Classifications and correlations…
Modelling and forecasting mortality in Spain
2008
[EN] Experience shows that static life tables overestimate death probabilities. As a consequence of this overestimation the premiums for annuities, pensions and life insurance are not what they actually should be, with negative effects for insurance companies or policy-holders. The reason for this overestimation is that static life tables, through being computed for a specific period of time, cannot take into account the decreasing mortality trend over time. Dynamic life tables overcome this problem by incorporating the influence of the calendar when graduating mortality. Recent papers on the topic look for the development of new methods to deal with this dynamism. Most methods used in dyna…
The making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 1: Model sensitivity
2020
This is the first of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). It describes the sensitivity analysis and evaluation procedures that formed the basis for choosing the final setup of the mesoscale model simulations of the wind atlas. The suitable combination of model setup and parameterizations, bound by practical constraints, was found for simulating the climatology of the wind field at turbine-relevant heights with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Initial WRF model sensitivity experiments compared the wind climate generated by using two commonly used planetary boundary layer schemes and were carried out over several regions in Europe. They…
A meta-analysis of the health action process approach.
2019
Objective The health action process approach (HAPA) is a social-cognitive model specifying motivational and volitional determinants of health behavior. A meta-analysis of studies applying the HAPA in health behavior contexts was conducted to estimate the size and variability of correlations among model constructs, test model predictions, and test effects of past behavior and moderators (behavior type, sample type, measurement lag, study quality) on model relations. Method A literature search identified 95 studies meeting inclusion criteria with 108 independent samples. Averaged corrected correlations among HAPA constructs and multivariate tests of model predictions were computed using conve…
Macroeconomic Modelling in EMU: How Relevant is the Change in Regime?
2007
We analyse the likely effects of changes in the monetary and financial regimes of EMU countries on the dynamics of output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced-form models. Data for both the pre-EMU and the EMU regimes are generated by a relatively standard open-economy-DSGE model with sticky prices and wages and restricted access to financial markets for some individuals. We find that the effects of the shift in the monetary regime on the processes followed by macroeconomic variables depend on the nature of the shocks hitting the economy. For plausible shocks distributions the reduction in the accuracy of VAR-base…
The Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis
2011
Information on land surface properties finds applications in a range of areas related to weather forecasting, environmental research, hazard management and climate monitoring. Remotely sensed observations yield the only means of supplying land surface information with adequate time sampling and a wide spatial coverage. The aim of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (Land-SAF) is to take full advantage of remotely sensed data to support land, land-atmosphere and biosphere applications, with emphasis on the development and implementation of algorithms that allow operational use of data from European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMET…
The green roofs for reduction in the load on rainwater drainage in highly urbanised areas
2021
AbstractRapid weather phenomena, particularly sudden and intense rainfall, have become a problem in urban areas in recent years. During heavy rainfall, urban rainwater drainage systems are unable to discharge huge amounts of runoff into collecting reservoirs, which usually results in local flooding. This paper presents attempts to forecast a reduction in the load on the rainwater drainage system through the implementation of green roofs in a case study covering two selected districts of Opole (Poland)—the Old Town and the City Centre. Model tests of extensive and intensive roofs were carried out, in order to determine the reduction of rainwater runoff from the roof surface for the site unde…
Bias correction of dynamically downscaled precipitation to compute soil water deficit for explaining year-to-year variation of tree growth over north…
2017
This paper documents the accuracy of a post-correction method applied to precipitation regionalized by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Climate Model (RCM) for improving simulated rainfall and feeding impact studies. The WRF simulation covers Burgundy (northeastern France) at a 8-km resolution and over a 20-year long period (1989–2008). Previous results show a strong deficiency of the WRF model for simulating precipitation, especially when convective processes are involved. In order to reduce such biases, a Quantile Mapping (QM) method is applied to WRF-simulated precipitation using the mesoscale atmospheric analyses system SAFRAN («Système d'Analyse Fournissant des Rense…
Multiple-criteria cash-management policies with particular liquidity terms
2019
Abstract Eliciting policies for cash management systems with multiple assets is by no means straightforward. Both the particular relationship between alternative assets and time delays from control decisions to availability of cash introduce additional difficulties. Here we propose a cash management model to derive short-term finance policies when considering multiple assets with different expected returns and particular liquidity terms for each alternative asset. In order to deal with the inherent uncertainty about the near future introduced by cash flows, we use forecasts as a key input to the model. We express uncertainty as lack of predictive accuracy and we derive a deterministic equiv…