Search results for "futures"
showing 10 items of 101 documents
Rolling over stock index futures contracts
2009
Derivative contracts have a finite life limited by their maturity. The construction of continuous series, however, is crucial for academic and trading purposes. In this study, we analyze the relevance of the choice of the rollover date, defined as the point in time when we switch from the front contract series to the next one. We have used five different methodologies in order to construct five different return series of stock index futures contracts. The results show that, regardless of the criterion applied, there are not significant differences between the resultant series. Therefore, the least complex method can be used in order to reach the same conclusions. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, I…
Asymmetric covariance in spot-futures markets
2003
This article studies how the spot-futures conditional covariance matrix responds to positive and negative innovations. The main results of the article are achieved by obtaining the Volatility Impulse Response Function (VIRF) for asymmetric multivariate GARCH structures, extending Lin (1997) findings for symmetric GARCH models. This theoretical result is general and can be applied to analyze covariance dynamics in any financial system. After testing how multivariate GARCH models clean up volatility asymmetries, the Asymmetric VIRF is computed for the Spanish stock index IBEX-35 and its futures contract. The empirical results indicate that the spot-futures variance system is more sensitive to…
Model Based Monte Carlo Pricing of Energy and Temperature Quanto Options
2010
Weather derivatives have become very popular tools in weather risk management in recent years. One of the elements supporting their diffusion has been the increase in volatility observed on many energy markets. Among the several available contracts, Quanto options are now becoming very popular for a simple reason: they take into account the strong correlation between energy consumption and certain weather conditions, so enabling price and weather risk to be controlled at the same time. These products are more efficient and, in many cases, significantly cheaper than simpler plain vanilla options. Unfortunately, the specific features of energy and weather time series do not enable the use of …
On measuring speculative and hedging activities in futures markets from volume and open interest data
2010
This paper provides a critical assessment of the line of research that measures speculative and hedging activities in futures markets from volume and open interest data. It makes several contributions. First, a detailed theoretical analysis of the measures proposed in the previous literature as proxies for speculative activity clarifies the circumstances in which they fail, as well as the assumptions that have to be made, when they are used as intended. Second, we propose a new way of combining the volume and the open interest figures, which provides additional information regarding the type of trading activity that takes place in the market on a given date. Finally, we analyse empirically …
A Study of Seasonality on the SAFEX Wheat Market
2015
This paper examines seasonality in returns and volatilities in the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) wheat futures contract in order to seek market inefficiencies that can be exploited for financial gain. Non-parametric and parametric-based techniques are used to study sample regimes before and after the peak in wheat prices that occurred during the global economic crisis in 2008. Findings of the study indicate that wheat returns on Mondays and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) holidays are significant and positive while Tuesday returns are negative and significant. These seasonal patterns occur largely in the second sample of the wheat dataset. Furthermore, it is observed that volatil…
The Economic Value of Volatility Transmission Between the Stock and Bond Markets
2008
This study has two main objectives. Firstly, volatility transmission between stocks and bonds in European markets is studied using the two most important financial assets in these fields: the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index futures contract and the Euro Bund futures contract. Secondly, a trading rule for the major European futures contracts is designed. This rule can be applied to different markets and assets to analyze the economic significance of volatility spillovers observed between them. The results indicate that volatility spillovers take place in both directions and that the stock-bond trading rule offers very profitable returns after transaction costs. These results have important implicatio…
Radical innovations: Between established knowledge and future research opportunities
2021
Abstract The fast growing body of radical innovation research is fragmented and difficult to overlook. We provide an overview of the most cited journals, authors, and publications and conduct a bibliographic coupling to structure the literature landscape. We identified the following research clusters: management of radical innovations, organizational learning and knowledge, financial aspects of radical innovation, radical innovation adoption and diffusion, radical industry innovations as challenges for incumbents, and radical innovation in specific industries. Based on an in-depth content analysis of these clusters, we identify the following future research opportunities: A systematic compi…
Optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets
2020
Abstract Optimal futures hedging positions for those agents trying to maximize their expected utility will depend on their view about the evolution of the market and on how risk adverse they are. The most risk adverse agents will probably decide to full-cover their positions. But when a futures bias exists, hedgers with moderate or low degree of risk aversion can alter their strategy depending on the expected gains in futures markets. In our application to the UK natural gas market, we find a statistically significant time-varying negative futures bias that can be forecasted with confidence. As a result of this bias, most effective and best performing hedging strategies for moderate risk-av…
A Note on the Stability of Lognormal Interest Rate Models and the Pricing of Eurodollar Futures
1997
The lognormal distribution assumption for the term structure of interest is the most natural way to exclude negative spot and forward rates. However, imposing this assumption on the continuously compounded interest rate has a serious drawback: rates explode and expected rollover returns are infinite even if the rollover period is arbitrarily short. As a consequence, such models cannot price one of the most widely used hedging instruments on the Euromoney market, namely the Eurodollar futures contract. The purpose of this note is to show that the problems with lognormal models result from modeling the wrong rate, namely the continuously compounded rate. If instead one models the effective an…
Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures
2018
Abstract In many futures markets, trading is concentrated on the front contract and positions are rolled-over until the strategy horizon is attained. In this paper, a pair-wise comparison between the conventional risk premium and the accrued risk premium in rolled-over positions on the front contract is carried out for UK natural gas futures. Several novel results are obtained. Firstly, and most importantly, the accrued risk premium in rollover strategies is significatively larger than conventional risk premiums and increases with the time to delivery. Specifically, for strategy horizons between three and six months, this difference increases from 1% to 10% (or from 4% to 20% in annualized …