Search results for "geometric Brownian motion"
showing 5 items of 15 documents
Efficient or Fractal Market Hypothesis? A Stock Indexes Modelling Using Geometric Brownian Motion and Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion
2021
In this article, we propose a test of the dynamics of stock market indexes typical of the US and EU capital markets in order to determine which of the two fundamental hypotheses, efficient market hypothesis (EMH) or fractal market hypothesis (FMH), best describes market behavior. The article’s major goal is to show how to appropriately model return distributions for financial market indexes, specifically which geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and geometric fractional Brownian motion (GFBM) dynamic equations best define the evolution of the S&P 500 and Stoxx Europe 600 stock indexes. Daily stock index data were acquired from the Thomson Reuters Eikon database during a ten-year period, fro…
Fractional Brownian motion and Martingale-differences
2004
Abstract We generalize a result of Sottinen (Finance Stochastics 5 (2001) 343) by proving an approximation theorem for the fractional Brownian motion, with H> 1 2 , using martingale-differences.
Hitting Time Distributions in Financial Markets
2006
We analyze the hitting time distributions of stock price returns in different time windows, characterized by different levels of noise present in the market. The study has been performed on two sets of data from US markets. The first one is composed by daily price of 1071 stocks trade for the 12-year period 1987-1998, the second one is composed by high frequency data for 100 stocks for the 4-year period 1995-1998. We compare the probability distribution obtained by our empirical analysis with those obtained from different models for stock market evolution. Specifically by focusing on the statistical properties of the hitting times to reach a barrier or a given threshold, we compare the prob…
A new stochastic representation for the decay from a metastable state
2002
Abstract We show that a stochastic process on a complex plane can simulate decay from a metastable state. The simplest application of the method to a model in which the approach to equilibrium occurs through transitions over a potential barrier is discussed. The results are compared with direct numerical simulations of the stochastic differential equations describing system's evolution. We have found that the new method is much more efficient from computational point of view than the direct simulations.
Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) of Stock Indexes and Financial Market Uncertainty in the Context of Non-Crisis and Financial Crisis Scenarios
2022
The present article proposes a methodology for modeling the evolution of stock market indexes for 2020 using geometric Brownian motion (GBM), but in which drift and diffusion are determined considering two states of economic conjunctures (states of the economy), i.e., non-crisis and financial crisis. Based on this approach, we have found that the GBM proved to be a suitable model for making forecasts of stock market index values, as it describes quite well their future evolution. However, the model proposed by us, modified geometric Brownian motion (mGBM), brings some contributions that better describe the future evolution of stock indexes. Evidence in this regard was provided by analyzing …