Search results for "inflation"
showing 10 items of 210 documents
Market Polarization and the Phillips Curve
2021
The Phillips curve has flattened out over the last decades. We develop a model that rationalizes this phenomenon as a result of the observed increase in polarization in many industries, a process along which a few top firms gain an increasing share of their industry market. In the model, firms compete a la Bertrand and there is exit and endogenous market entry, as well as optimal up and downgrading of technology. Firms with larger market shares find optimal to dampen the response of their price changes, thus cushioning the shocks to their marginal costs through endogenous countercyclical markups. Thus, regardless of its causes (technology, competition, barriers to entry, etc.), the recent i…
On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases
2021
Abstract Using long-term sovereign ratings data for a panel of 130 countries over the last three decades, we investigate the duration and determinants of sovereign rating phases through the lens of discrete-time Weibull models. We find that the likelihood of the end of the ‘speculative-grade’ phase increases as time goes by (i.e. there is positive duration dependence), but the ‘investment-grade’ phase is not duration dependent. Thus, for sovereigns rated as speculative, the build-up of reputation as good borrowers is a gradual process, whereas the reputation of investment-grade sovereigns solidifies and remains unchanged as time passes. However, the length of both phases significantly depen…
An Analysis of the Time-Varying Behavior of the Equilibrium Velocity of Money in the Euro Area
2020
Recent developments in inflation and M3 velocity in the euro area have raised serious doubts about the reliability of M3 growth as a pillar of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. We develop a very flexible and comprehensive state-space framework for modeling the velocity of circulation. Our specification allows for the estimation of different autoregressive alternatives and includes control instruments, whose coefficients can be set up either common or idiosyncratic. This is particularly useful to detect asymmetries in the reaction among countries to common shocks. Our findings first suggest that the downward trend of M3 velocity is mainly explained by the evolution of permanent income, pro…
Price Stability and Inflation Persistence During the International Gold Standard: The Scandinavian Case
2009
In the 1870s the three Scandinavian countries Denmark, Norway and Sweden formed the Scandinavian Currency Union. Both the adoption of gold and the monetary union were supposed to lead to price stability in and between these countries. By drawing on new indices of consumer prices the present paper offers an examination of inflation dynamics, defined as price stability and inflation persistence, in the periphery of Scandinavia during the heyday of the international gold standard.
Towards a model of Quintessential Inflation
2000
A model of quintessential inflation is presented, which manages to achieve the requirements of both inflation and quintessence with natural values of the mass-scales and parameters.
PENGARUH MODAL USAHA DAN LAMA MELAUT, TERHADAP HARGA JUAL IKAN PADA PASAR TRADISIONAL SANGGENG MANOKWARI
2019
The purpose of this study was to measure the effect of venture capital (X1) and the long time at sea /time work hours (X2) for the offer price of fish (Y) in the tradisional sanggeng market manokwari, with 73 respondents chosen randomly and consisted of sellers and buyers in the sanggeng market.
 Data collection methods are done through interviews, (primary data) with a questionnaire and then carried out a questionnaire test and test the quality of the data, and then analyzed uiple linear regression.
 The result of research simultan eously or statistically partial variables X1 (venture capital) and variable X2 (long sea) significantly influence the higt selling price of …
Inflation in a virtual economy – a real or virtual threat?
2014
The aim of the paper is an analysis of the way and circumstances under which inflation can occur in a virtual economy. It is also an attempt to answer the question whether, and in what way virtual inflation may be related to inflation in the real economy. The article is conceptual, because in the present state of statistical data the effects of virtual economies are not carried out, or are generated in a very small number, which makes it impossible to make reliable calculations
Is the EUA a new asset class?
2022
The listing of a new asset requires knowledge of its statistical properties prior to its use for hedging, speculative or risk management purposes. In this paper, the authors study the stylised facts of European Union Allowances (EUAs) returns. The majority of the phenomena observed, such as heavy tails, volatility clustering, asymmetric volatility and the presence of a high number of outliers are similar to those observed in both commodity futures and financial assets. However, properties such as negative asymmetry, positive correlation with stocks indexes and higher volatility levels during the trading session, typical of financial assets, and the existence of inflation hedge and positive …
Producer Prices in the Transition to a Common Currency
2006
We analyze producer price developments in the transition from a national exchange rate regime to a monetary union. The focus is on the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Stylized facts witness about an exploding gaps in producer-price inflation during the years immediately following the completion of the EMU. Price convergence is found to be an important driver throughout the entire euro period (1999-2005), but with no significant differences in speed compared to the pre euro period. Productivity growth had its primary effect in the first years and effective exchange-rate changes in the later years of the euro period.
Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models
2010
The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significant…