Search results for "interest rate"
showing 10 items of 139 documents
Is the Fisher effect non-linear? some evidence for Spain, 1963–2002
2005
In this paper the role of non-linearities in the relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, in order to shed some additional light on the mostly unfavourable evidence on the presence of a full Fisher effect. The analysis is applied to the case of Spain for the period 1963–2002, which allows previous results on the subject to be re-examined and extended. The empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration, so that cointegration between a pair of variables should be expected only once a certain threshold was reached.
Deciphering the Macroeconomic Effects of Internal Devaluations in a Monetary Union
2020
We study the macroeconomic effects of internal devaluations undertaken by a periphery of countries belonging to a monetary union. We find that internal devaluations have large and positive output effects in the long run. Through an expectations channel, most of these effects carry over to the short run. Internal devaluations focused on goods markets reforms are generally more powerful in stimulating growth than reforms aimed at moderating wages, but the latter are less deflationary. For a monetary union with a periphery the size of the euro area's, the countries at the periphery benefit from internal devaluations even at the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the nominal interest rate. Nevertheless,…
Quantifying Preferential Trading in the e-MID Interbank Market
2013
Interbank markets allow credit institutions to exchange capital for purposes of liquidity management. These markets are among the most liquid markets in the financial system. However, liquidity of interbank markets dropped during the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and such a lack of liquidity influenced the entire economic system. In this paper, we analyze transaction data from the e-MID market which is the only electronic interbank market in the Euro Area and US, over a period of eleven years (1999-2009). We adapt a method developed to detect statistically validated links in a network, in order to reveal preferential trading in a directed network. Preferential trading between banks is detecte…
The Intraday Interest Rate: What's that?
2015
We study the intraday interest rate in a CCP-based GC pooling repo market and its key determinants. Since collateral used in this market is identical to collateral eligible for the daylight overdraft facility of the Eurosystem, any intraday rate in this market cannot be a result of collateral constraints keeping banks from using the overdraft for arbitrage. Nevertheless, we find that in the crisis period a statistically and economically significant intraday spread (up to 60 basis points) prevailed that was only somewhat mitigated by the ECB's unconventional monetary policy measures. Our results show that this spread was mainly determined by the market liquidity of the repo market, suggestin…
The response of Brent crude oil to the European central bank monetary policy
2022
Este artículo examina el impacto de las decisiones de política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) sobre los precios del petróleo y la liquidez mediante un estudio de eventos con datos intradía. Analizamos el período de enero de 1999 a diciembre de 2020, que incluye la crisis financiera que comenzó en agosto de 2007. Nuestros resultados muestran una respuesta significativa de los rendimientos del petróleo solo durante la crisis financiera. Específicamente, encontramos que los rendimientos de los futuros de petróleo crudo Brent respondieron negativamente a variaciones inesperadas en la prima de riesgo italiana como medida de acciones de política monetaria no convencionales, y positivam…
Regional Asymmetric Reactions to Shocks in EMU: an Assessment of Different Approaches
2002
In recent years there has been an increasing research effort in estimating regional asymmetric shocks and assessing their importance within the European Monetary Union (EMU). In this chapter we offer an evaluation of the different approaches by distinguishing them according to methodological underpinnings, variables used and pitfalls and potential extensions of the analysis. The structure of this contribution is the following. In section 2 we discuss the relative importance of asymmetric shocks and the main problems connected with their measurement. In section 3 we focus on the explanatory variables which are assumed to determine the asymmetric reaction to shocks and distinguish between sec…
Interest Rate Convergence, External Balances and the Euro Crisis
2016
Typically, the catching-up process between rich Northern Europe and poor Southern Europe and the diverging cost competitiveness between the two regions are considered alternative explanations for the widening current account imbalances in the euro area. This paper proposes a new explanation for the imbalances which led to the 2009 euro crisis i.e. large interest rate differentials among the EMU-12 countries which prevailed before the adoption of the euro. This finding suggests that the euro crisis was, at least to some extent, a consequence of the initial convergence shock.
Notes on Using the Hidden Asset or the Contribution Asset to Compile the Actuarial Balance for Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems
2010
The aim of this paper is twofold: to determine the connection between the “contribution asset” and the “hidden asset” and to discover whether using either of them to compile the actuarial balance in Swedish-type pay-as-you-go pension systems will provide a reliable solvency indicator. We develop an overlapping generations model and apply it to the defined benefit pay-as-you-go system, although it would be just as valid for NDC systems. On the theoretical side the main conclusion is that, despite their very different natures, in a simplified scenario the contribution asset and the hidden asset could coincide if r - the real rate of interest - is equal to the growth in the wage bill. On the a…
An interest rates cluster analysis
2004
An empirical analysis of interest rates in money and capital markets is performed. We investigate a set of 34 different weekly interest rate time series during a time period of 16 years between 1982 and 1997. Our study is focused on the collective behavior of the stochastic fluctuations of these time-series which is investigated by using a clustering linkage procedure. Without any a priori assumption, we individuate a meaningful separation in 6 main clusters organized in a hierarchical structure.
Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why "too" low (high) for "so" long?
2022
We study the behaviour of real interest rate gaps-i.e. periods of real interest rates above (below) the natural interest rate-and link their length with a set of key observable determinants. Using quarterly data for 13 OECD countries over (close to) the last 60 years, we find that global risk-taking, CPI inflation, (un)conventional monetary policy, and income redistribution crucially shape the duration of both events. However, while labour-related supply-side factors appear to affect the length of positive interest rate gaps, the adoption of an inflation targeting regime and the current account balance seem to explain the duration of negative interest rate gaps. Our results suggest that the…