Search results for "jel:C41"
showing 5 items of 5 documents
Fiscal Adjustment and Business Cycle Synchronization
2013
Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles.
Regularized Regression Incorporating Network Information: Simultaneous Estimation of Covariate Coefficients and Connection Signs
2014
We develop an algorithm that incorporates network information into regression settings. It simultaneously estimates the covariate coefficients and the signs of the network connections (i.e. whether the connections are of an activating or of a repressing type). For the coefficient estimation steps an additional penalty is set on top of the lasso penalty, similarly to Li and Li (2008). We develop a fast implementation for the new method based on coordinate descent. Furthermore, we show how the new methods can be applied to time-to-event data. The new method yields good results in simulation studies concerning sensitivity and specificity of non-zero covariate coefficients, estimation of networ…
Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis
2014
Using administrative records data from Spanish Social Security, we analyse the pattern and the determinants of individual unemployment benefit spell durations. We compare a period of expansion (2005-2007) and the recent recession (2009-2011), allowing us to determine the impact of the current crisis. In line with the duality that characterizes the Spanish labour market, we distinguish between exits to a stable job and exits to an unstable job. We estimate a Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard Model for each time period. We find similar effects of the crisis for stable and unstable jobs, which are particularly strong in the first year of the spell. Moreover, slight negative duration depen…
What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?
2013
This paper assesses the determinants of the length of fiscal consolidation using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009. Relying on a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidation episodes, we show that fiscal variables (such as the budget deficit and the level of public debt) and economic factors (such as the degree of openness, the inflation rate, the interest rate and per capita GDP) are crucial for the fiscal consolidation process. Additionally, we employ duration analysis over a set of consolidation spells and find that, as time goes by, the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending is higher. However, the hazard function is not monotonic: indeed, it …
Gender differences in exit rates from unemployment: evidence from
2000
Exit rates from unemployment are analysed by distinguishing two destinations: employment and non-participation. Unlike most of the earlier empirical Finnish studies of transitions from unemployment, we allow for different behaviour of males and females. A database constructed from three register data files of the Employment Service of Vasa in 1996 is used. Results of the estimated duration models suggest that gender differences are foremost due to the closer attachment of men to the labour market, the family responsibilities affecting women, and the traditional gender structure of the Finnish labour market. Our results show that drawing conclusions when gender differences are not considered…