Search results for "jel:C53"
showing 6 items of 6 documents
Model Based Monte Carlo Pricing of Energy and Temperature Quanto Options
2010
Weather derivatives have become very popular tools in weather risk management in recent years. One of the elements supporting their diffusion has been the increase in volatility observed on many energy markets. Among the several available contracts, Quanto options are now becoming very popular for a simple reason: they take into account the strong correlation between energy consumption and certain weather conditions, so enabling price and weather risk to be controlled at the same time. These products are more efficient and, in many cases, significantly cheaper than simpler plain vanilla options. Unfortunately, the specific features of energy and weather time series do not enable the use of …
Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads.
2010
Abstract In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads for real-time and revised data regarding employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest that the best results come from using only a few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. In particular, for employment and at short-run horizons, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks. Moreover, forecast results based on revised data …
No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35
2013
This paper analyzes the behavior of Ibex35 from January 1999 to December 2001, in order to check if it follows a different process from random walk so its return is not a white noise and it can be predictable, against the efficient market hypothesis. For that, a nonlinear generating process of return will be considered and a STAR-APARCH model will be specified. This model allows a nonlinear behavior in the conditional mean and in the conditional variance. The empirical results show that the Ibex35 follows a nonlinear and asymmetric process, both in the conditional mean as in the conditional variance, so the weak-version of efficient market hypothesis is rejected. El trabajo analiza el compo…
A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations
2009
This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested in Carroll [2003, Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 269-298]. The posterior model probabilities based on the Michigan survey data strongly support the proposed model. We also extend the agent-based epidemiology model by deriving for it a simple adaptation, which is suitable for estimation. Our results show that this model is able to capture the heterogeneity in households’ expe…
El tipo de cambio real dólar-euro y el diferencial de intereses reales
2006
This paper investigates whether threshold effects exist in the relationship between dollar-euro real exchange rate and real interest differential, over the period January 1984 to December 2004. We specify a three-regime threshold model and the results provide evidence that there is no threshold effect in the short term, but the nonlinear behaviour of real exchange rate implies threshold effect in the long term. On the other hand, the nonlinearity into the behaviour of real exchange rates can be modelled by a Band-TAR which implies a symmetric response to the real interest differential outside the bank. Finally, into the threshold band the behaviour of real exchange rate is near to follow a …
ASPECTS REGARDING THE OPTIMIZATION OF THE QUALITY OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS - SOLVING AN OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM IN THE SENSE OF SUSTAINABILITY WITH WINQSB
2012
In this paper we present an optimization problem solving, problem that is mathematically shaped as a linear programming problem. This is made with the purpose of finding an optimal solution which is also a sustainable one. In the present and future society, it is clear that nothing can be done honestly, but only in the sense of a professional and sustainable thinking (Konrad, C., 2011, pp.202-217, Petrescu, I., 2006, p.1). To think sustainable can also mean “to be calculated”, in popular language “to choose wisely”, all for achieving the proposed project, being careful to using non-renewable resources, to pollution, to protection for human resource, etc. Of course that the logical and preci…