Search results for "jel:E3"
showing 10 items of 38 documents
The Stabilizing Role of Government Size
2007
This paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies. Our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard RBC model can generate a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of output. However, in the model, we find that the stabilizing effect is only due to a composition effect and it is not present when we look at the volatility of private output. Given that empirically we also observe a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of consumption, we modify the model by i…
A rational expectations model for simulation and policy evaluation of the Spanish economy
2010
This paper presents the model used for simulation purposes within the Spanish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. REMS (a Rational Expectations Model for the Spanish economy) is a small open economy dynamic general equilibrium model in the vein of the New-Neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis models, with a strongly micro-founded system of equations. In the long run REMS behaves in accordance with the neoclassical growth model. In the short run, it incorporates nominal, real and financial frictions. Real frictions include adjustment costs in consumption (via habits in consumption and rule-of-thumb households) and investment into physical capital. Due to financial frictions, there is no per…
Are business cycles asymmetric? Some European evidence
1997
Economic thought has ofien regal'ded business cycles as asymmetric. This papel' examines the existence of asymmetries over the business cycle in three European countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To analyze this issue, industrial production in these countries from 1957 to 1994 is examined, and quarterly contractions and expansions in this variable are compared. The results obtained with both parametric and nonparametric methods allow the existence of asymmetries in these countries to be questioned. El pensamiento económico ha considerado frecuentemente que los ciclos económicos son de naturaleza asimétrica. Este trabajo examina la existencia de asimetrías en los ciclos económ…
ECONOMIC COMOVEMENTS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
2005
This paper examines the existence of common movements in production, prices and interest rates in three countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. To analyse this issue, the usual approach of studying cross-correlations is extended. Though these European countries are closely linked to each other, the results obtained vary substantially over time, with the economic variables and in the countries under consideration. Este trabajo examina la existencia de movimientos comunes en la producción, en los precios y en los tipos de interés en tres países: Francia, Alemania y el Reino Unido. Para analizar este tema, se extiende el enfoque habitual del estudio de las correlaciones cruzadas. A …
Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads.
2010
Abstract In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads for real-time and revised data regarding employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest that the best results come from using only a few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. In particular, for employment and at short-run horizons, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks. Moreover, forecast results based on revised data …
Bubbles and Crowding-in of Capital via a Savings Glut
2017
This paper uncovers a mechanism by which bubbles crowd in capital investment. If capital formation is initially depressed by a binding credit constraint, a bubble triggers a savings glut. Higher returns in a new bubbly equilibrium attract additional savings, which are channeled to expand investment at the extensive margin, leading to permanently higher capital, output, and wages. We demonstrate that crowding-in through this channel is a robust phenomenon that occurs along the entire time path.
Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals
2011
The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, the authors document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on co-movement of commodity prices.
Household debt and labor market fluctuations
2011
Abstract The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fluctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. We set up a search model with efficient bargaining and financial frictions, in which impatient borrowers can take an amount of credit that cannot exceed a proportion of the expected value of their real estate holdings. When borrowers' equity requirements are low, the impact of a positive technology shock on the marginal utility of consumption is strengthened, which in turn re…
How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?
2012
Prova tipográfica
Quality pricing-to-market
2014
We examine firm's pricing-to-market decisions in vertically differentiated industries featuring a large number of firms that compete monopolistically in the quality space. Firms sell goods of heterogeneous quality to consumers with non-homothetic preferences that differ in their income and thus their marginal willingness to pay for quality increments. We derive closed-form solutions for the pricing game under costly international trade, thus establishing existence and uniqueness. We then examine how the interaction of good quality and market demand for quality affects firms' pricing-to-market decisions. The relative price of high quality goods compared to that of low quality goods is an inc…