Search results for "jel:F34"
showing 4 items of 4 documents
Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis
2009
Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.
German Bank Lending During Emerging Market Crises: A Bank Level Analysis
2007
This paper studies German bank lending during the Asian and Russian crises, using a bank level data set, which has been compiled from credit data at the Deutsche Bundesbank. Our aim is to gain more insight into the pattern of German bank lending during financial crises in emerging markets. We find that German banks reacted to the Asian crisis mainly by reallocating their portfolios among emerging markets. This behaviour is consistent with active portfolio management and does not necessarily indicate a spontaneous reaction to the Asian crisis. By contrast, the banks' behaviour during the Russian crisis is characterised by a general withdrawal from emerging markets. The use of micro data allo…
How Law Affects Lending
2006
A voluminous literature seeks to explore the relation between law and finance, but offers little insights into dynamic relation between legal change and behavioral outcomes or about the distributive effects of law on different market participants. The current paper disentangles the law-finance relation by using disaggregate data on banks’ lending patterns in 12 transition countries over a 8 year period. This allows us to control for country level heterogeneity and differentiate between different types of lenders. Employing a differences-in-differences methodology in an exclusive ”laboratory” setting as well as unique hand collected datasets on legal change as well as changes in bank ownersh…
German bank lending to industrial and non-industrial countries: driven by fundamentals or different treatment?
2005
This paper shows that the substantial disparity in German bank lending towards industrial (IC) and non-industrial (Non-IC) countries is largely explained by differences in countries' endowments and only to a minor extent by German banks' different treatment of these country groups. This is demonstrated by applying a decomposition technique to an augmented gravity model that is estimated for German foreign lending using a new micro panel data-set on individual claims from the Deutsche Bundesbank covering the period from 1996 to 2002.