Search results for "jel:L94"

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Model Based Monte Carlo Pricing of Energy and Temperature Quanto Options

2010

Weather derivatives have become very popular tools in weather risk management in recent years. One of the elements supporting their diffusion has been the increase in volatility observed on many energy markets. Among the several available contracts, Quanto options are now becoming very popular for a simple reason: they take into account the strong correlation between energy consumption and certain weather conditions, so enabling price and weather risk to be controlled at the same time. These products are more efficient and, in many cases, significantly cheaper than simpler plain vanilla options. Unfortunately, the specific features of energy and weather time series do not enable the use of …

Economics and EconometricsComputer scienceMonte Carlo methodTemperature levelBivariate analysisEnergy priceDynamic modelMicroeconomicsEconomicsEconometricsweather derivatives Quanto options pricing derivative pricing model simulation and forecast.Time seriesQuanto options; Temperature level; Energy price; Dynamic modelMonte Carlo methods for option pricingjel:C53Quanto optionsjel:C51Energy consumptionVariance (accounting)jel:C32Quantojel:G13weather derivatives; Quanto options pricing; derivative pricing; model simulation; forecastjel:L94jel:G17General Energyjel:Q54Binomial options pricing modelVolatility (finance)Futures contract
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Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool

2007

This paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis (futures price less the spot price); and generally reflects the typical seasonal patterns in weekly spot prices. Results show that the time series model forecasts significantly beat futures prices when using the Diebold and Mariano (1995) test. Furthermore, the average forecasting error of futures prices reveals that they are significantly above the settlement spot price at the ‘delivery week’ and th…

Electricity Markets Power Derivatives and Forecasting Electricity Pricesjel:G13health care economics and organizationsjel:L94
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