Search results for "keynesian economics"
showing 10 items of 40 documents
The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of Germany
1997
The NATREX model defines the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium real effective exchange rate in the medium to longer run. The PPP theory is a special case of the NATREX when a linear combination of the fundamentals, which are productivity and social thrift, is stationary. The differences in social thrift under Schmidt and Kohl, and the effects of the European terms of trade upon the q-ratio, explain the variations in the NATREX in the preunification period. The actual real exchange rate of the German mark converged to the NATREX. In the postunification period, the medium run NATREX increased due to the rise in time preference and the cyclically adjusted q-ratio. The actual real exc…
Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro–Dollar Exchange Rate
2006
Abstract This study examines changes in the impact of the economic fundamentals on the euro–dollar exchange rate. First, the monetary model is augmented with the equity markets and the model is estimated in its structural form. Second, the time-varying impacts of the long-run fundamentals representing equilibrium in different markets on the euro–dollar exchange rate are examined using Kalman filtering. The time-varying structural model indicated that the relative importance of the different fundamentals was not equal and the impact of the fundamentals was time-dependent.
Joan Robinson and Keynes: finance, relative prices and the monetary circuit.
2003
Joan Robinson's views on credit and money are discussed only rarely. Of late, however, some Post-Keynesians have sought to revive these views, claiming that Robinson was one of the original contributors to the theory of endogenous money, post Keynes. This paper has two objectives. First, it seeks to develop Robinson's views on credit, money and finance and to show that not only did she have a clear understanding of the theory of endogenous money, but that she also held views akin to the theory of the monetary circuit. Second, the paper addresses Robinson's dismissal of the problem of relative prices and the conventional theory of value. Once again, it shows that Robinson's position is conne…
HARVARD MEETS THE CRISIS: THE MONETARY THEORY AND POLICY OF LAUCHLIN B. CURRIE, JACOB VINER, JOHN H. WILLIAMS, AND HARRY D. WHITE
2015
The paper discusses the interpretation of the Great Depression and the policy decision making by four Harvard economists: Lauchlin B. Currie, Jacob Viner, John H. Williams, and Harry D. White. All were eminent scholars in the field of monetary and international economics, and were deeply involved in policy decisions during the New Deal. We will discuss how their Harvard training provided them with a common methodological and analytical perspective, and how this common perspective translated into specific policies when they moved from the academia to public service in the US administration. Their interpretation of the causes of the Great Depression and their policy proposals show the eclecti…
An Institutionalist's Journey into the Years of High Theory: John Maurice Clark on the Accelerator-Multiplier Interaction
2007
A few years ago, an article by Arnold Heertje and Peter Heemeijer (2002) triggered an articulate and stimulating debate among scholars on the intellectual origins of Paul Samuelson's multiplier-accelerator model (1939a, 1939b). The discussion, which involved the participation of Samuelson himself, centered on whether, and to what extent, Samuelson's 1939 seminal contributions were inspired by Roy Harrod'sThe Trade Cycle(1936). Heertje and Heemeijer argue that “there is little factual support for Samuelson's suggestion ascribing the model mainly to Alvin Hansen, his mentor in the days of the creation of the model” (Heertje and Heemeijer 2002, p. 207). Instead, they provide convincing evidenc…
Democratic governments, economic growth and income distribution
1995
That in democracies more inequality leads to more redistribution is an implication of Allan Meltzer and Scott Richard's well-known model ( 1981).1 That, in turn, more redistribution leads to less growth is a generally accepted proposition. That "inequality is harmful for growth" (Persson and Tabellini, 1994) is thus the predictable result of the introduction of policy-making à la Meltzer and Richard into the theory of growth. The small literature in which such introduction has been attempted includes contributions by Alberto Alesina, Giuseppe Bertola, Roberto Perotti, Thomsten Persson, Dani Rodrik, Gilles Saint- Paul, Guido Tabellini and Thierry Verdier. Short surveys are provided by Perott…
Growth, inflation and the exchange rate regime
1996
Abstract According to the Balassa-Samuelson effect, growth and inflation are positively correlated in economies with pegged currencies. This paper shows that the costs of inflation on long-term growth are underestimated in samples that include countries and periods with fixed exchange rate regimes.
Change of regime and Phillips curve stability: The case of Spain, 1964–2002
2007
Following the emergence of the Lucas critique, traditional Phillips curves relating inflation to a measure of the level of activity, and augmented to include past inflation (assumed to proxy expected inflation), have been deemed to be highly unstable over time. In this paper we try to investigate, using recent econometric developments, whether such a statement can be supported over a long time period. In the empirical application, we analyze the case of Spain along the period 1964–2002.
Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US
2000
Abstract This paper offers two new results on interest rate rules. First, we show that the empirical evidence from 1970 onwards for the US is compatible with a Taylor rule when we consider the possibility of changes in the inflation target and in the real interest rate. Second, recursive estimates of a forward-looking version of the Taylor rule for EMU confirm an increasing weight for inflation in the area, possibly as a consequence of the EMS, and, furthermore, a convergence in the nineties to the German value observed for the whole period. This process has coincided with an important reduction in the deviation of inflation across EMU countries. The results also show that credibility probl…
The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking
2010
The Taylor rule has revolutionized the way many policymakers at central banks think about monetary policy. It has framed policy actions as a systematic response to incoming information about economic conditions, as opposed to a period-by-period optimization problem. It has emphasized the importance of adjusting policy rates more than one-for-one in response to an increase in inflation. And, various versions of the Taylor rule have been incorporated into macroeconomic models that are used at central banks to understand and forecast the economy. ; This paper examines how the Taylor rule is used as an input in monetary policy deliberations and decision-making at central banks. The paper charac…