Search results for "likelihood"
showing 10 items of 264 documents
Characterizing the collective personality of ant societies: aggressive colonies do not abandon their home.
2011
Animal groups can show consistent behaviors or personalities just like solitary animals. We studied the collective behavior of Temnothorax nylanderi ant colonies, including consistency in behavior and correlations between different behavioral traits. We focused on four collective behaviors (aggression against intruders, nest relocation, removal of infected corpses and nest reconstruction) and also tested for links to the immune defense level of a colony and a fitness component (per-capita productivity). Behaviors leading to an increased exposure of ants to micro-parasites were expected to be positively associated with immune defense measures and indeed colonies that often relocated to other…
An Improved Detection Technique for Cyclic-Prefixed OFDM
2010
A novel Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing detection technique compatible to standard (e.g. Wireless LAN) transmitters is proposed. It features enhanced error-rate performance with flexible computational complexity and robustness to imperfect channel estimation. It is based on exploitation of the redundancy available in the cyclic prefix after cancellation of interference from the preceding block. In order to show the effectiveness of our proposal, an analysis of computational complexity and a number of comparisons to the standard per-subcarrier receiver and a previously existing method in terms of error rates are reported.
A Bayesian unified framework for risk estimation and cluster identification in small area health data analysis.
2020
Many statistical models have been proposed to analyse small area disease data with the aim of describing spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously allows for risk estimation and cluster identification. Our model formulation assumes that there is an unknown number of risk classes and small areas are assigned to a risk class by means of independent allocation variables. Therefore, areas within each cluster are assumed to share a common risk but they may be geographically separated. The posterior distribution of the parameter representing the number of risk classes is estimated using a novel procedure that combines its prior …
Computational issues in fitting joint frailty models for recurrent events with an associated terminal event.
2020
Abstract Background and objective: Joint frailty regression models are intended for the analysis of recurrent event times in the presence of informative drop-outs. They have been proposed for clinical trials to estimate the effect of some treatment on the rate of recurrent heart failure hospitalisations in the presence of drop-outs due to cardiovascular death. Whereas a R-software-package for fitting joint frailty models is available, some technical issues have to be solved in order to use SASⓇ 1 software, which is required in the regulatory environment of clinical trials. Methods: First, we demonstrate how to solve these issues by deriving proper likelihood-decompositions, in particular fo…
The Notion of Eikos Within Conspiracy Theories. A Rhetorical Analysis
2022
Based on the analysis of one specific conspiracy theory, this paper will explore, from the rhetorical framework, the antic concept of likelihood [eikos]. Indeed, we believe that the rhetorical approach could allow us, on a larger scale, to (re)question, in the light of contemporary challenges, the complex relationship we have with the notions of rationality and truth. More precisely, to proceed with the rhetorical analysis, we will mobilise two types of logical reasoning: first, “the logic of the pot” argument from pragmatic logic and second, the logic of amplification and poetization of discourse. This will allow us to draw some comparisons between conspiracist speeches and, respectively, …
Dynamic factorial graphical models for dynamic networks
2014
Dynamic networks models describe a growing number of important scientific processes, from cell biology and epidemiology to sociology and finance. Estimating dynamic networks from noisy time series data is a difficult task since the number of components involved in the system is very large. As a result, the number of parameters to be estimated is typically larger than the number of observations. However, a characteristic of many real life networks is that they are sparse. For example, the molec- ular structure of genes make interactions with other components a highly-structured and, therefore, a sparse process. Penalized Gaussian graphical models have been used to estimate sparse networks. H…
Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro Area
2006
We present maximum likelihood estimates of a small scale dynamic general equilibrium model for the Eurozone. We pay special attention to the role of money, both through its direct effect upon private agents’ decisions and as a component of the monetary policy rule. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find no direct effect of money upon inflation and output but money growth plays a significant role in the interest rate rule. Second, money demand shocks mainly help to forecast real balances while real shocks explain the bulk of price, output and interest rates fluctuations. Third, the estimated model predicts sensible conditional correlations among those variables both to dema…
Sparse model-based network inference using Gaussian graphical models
2010
We consider the problem of estimating a sparse dynamic Gaussian graphical model with L1 penalized maximum likelihood of structured precision matrix. The structure can consist of specific time dynamics, known presence or absence of links in the graphical model or equality constraints on the parameters. The model is defined on the basis of partial correlations, which results in a specific class precision matrices. A priori L1 penalized maximum likelihood estimation in this class is extremely difficult, because of the above mentioned constraints, the computational complexity of the L1 constraint on the side of the usual positive-definite constraint. The implementation is non-trivial, but we sh…
Differential cycles of range contraction and expansion in European high mountain plants during the Late Quaternary: insights from Pritzelago alpina (…
2003
Nuclear DNA sequence variation of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) were used to illuminate the evolutionary history of Pritzelago alpina, a herbaceous perennial of (sub)alpine to nival habitats of the European high mountains. Maximum likelihood analysis of ITS sequences of P. alpina, Hornungia petraea and Hymenolobus procumbens (the 'Pritzelago alliance') resolved P. alpina and H. petraea as sister taxa. ITS divergence estimates support an origin for P. alpina in the Late Tertiary, while intraspecific diversification started in the Late Quaternary (0.4-0.9 million years ago). AFLP analysis of 76 individuals of P. alpina, representing …
Effects of the European Monetary Union on High-Technology Exports
2021
AbstractOur study estimates the effects of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on high-technology (HT) export and assesses the potential knowledge spillovers of such trade. Irrespective of the importance of the HT trade channel, none of the previous studies in the literature focus on the effects of a common currency on HT trade. Increasing trade in the HT sector may lead to more efficient use of resources and help countries to move towards a knowledge-based economy. Moreover, it may lead to higher overall growth. After considering multilateral resistances, pair fixed effects and bias correction in the preferred (three-way bias-corrected) model, EMU membership becomes negative and statisticall…