Search results for "macroeconomics"
showing 10 items of 477 documents
Measuring Uncertainty in the Portfolio Selection Problem
2018
In this paper, we propose a new index for ranking portfolios based on the credibility expected return and loss on their investment. We assume that the return on a given portfolio is modeled as a trapezoidal fuzzy variable, whose credibility distribution is built using the data set of its historical returns. The credibilistic loss on the investment for a given portfolio is measured by means of a suitable loss function. In order to take risk-adverse investor attitudes into account, we analyze the performance of some credibility measures related to loss and risk on the investment for a given portfolio and their relationship with similar possibility measures. A numerical example is presented sh…
Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies
2018
Abstract We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10% increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage points on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a more credible monetary policy and less reliance on energy imports.…
Competition and inflation differentials in EMU
2008
In a monetary union, inflation rate differentials may be substantial over the business cycle. This paper parameterizes a two-country monetary union in which different economic structures in the two countries generate temporary inflation differentials. Cross-country differences are introduced in (i) the elasticity of demand in the goods markets, which cause producers to discriminate prices, (ii) the degree of price inertia and (iii) the degree of openness or preference for foreign goods in consumption. The model is calibrated to reproduce two average large EMU countries and it is able to generate such inflation differentials. We find the mechanism of price discrimination quantitatively more …
Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints
2022
Abstract Can inflation anchoring foster growth? To answer this question, we use panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries from 39 advanced and emerging market economies over 1990–2014 and employ a difference-in-differences strategy based on the theoretical prediction that higher inflation uncertainty particularly depresses investment in industries that are more credit constrained. Industries characterized by high external financial dependence, liquidity needs, and R&D intensity, and low asset tangibility, tend to grow faster in countries with well-anchored inflation expectations. The results, based on an IV approach—using indicators of monetary policy transparency and ce…
Unconventional monetary policy reaction functions: evidence from the US
2020
Abstract We specify unconventional monetary policy reaction functions for the Fed using linear and nonlinear econometric frameworks. We find that nonstandard policy measures are largely driven by the dynamics of inflation and the output gap, with the effect being particularly strong during QE rounds. Moreover, we uncover the presence of asymmetry and regime dependence in central bank’s actions since the global financial crisis, especially concerning the response of the term spread and the shadow short rate to the growth rate of central bank reserves. From a policy perspective and given the lack of a systematic response of monetary policy to asset price growth in nonstandard times, our findi…
Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence
2015
We study the impact of global food price shocks on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, a 10% increase in global food inflation raises domestic inflation by about 0.5 percentage point after a year; however, the impact has declined over time and become less persistent. The global food price shocks of the 2000s had a much bigger impact on domestic inflation in emerging and developing economies than in advanced economies. This could reflect the smaller share of food in the consumption baskets in advanced economies. We also provide evidence that inflation expectations are more anchored in advanced than in emerging economies, which could also explain the smal…
The Benevolence of Time, Sound Macroeconomic Environment and Governance Quality on the Duration of Sovereign Ratings Phases
2019
Using long-term sovereign ratings data for a panel of 130 countries over the last three decades, we rely on discrete-time Weibull models to investigate the duration and determinants of sovereign ratings phases. We find that the likelihood of the end of the 'speculative-grade' phase increases as time goes by (i.e. positive duration dependence), but the 'investment-grade' phase is not duration dependent. Thus, for sovereigns rated as speculative, the build-up of reputation as good borrowers is a gradual process, whereas the reputation of investment-grade sovereigns solidifies and remains unchanged as time passes. However, the length of both phases has proven to be significantly dependent on t…
Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
2007
Price determination theory typically focuses on the role of monetary policy, while the role of fiscal policy is usually neglected. From a different point of view, the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level, even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation targeting strategy. In this paper we try to test empirically whether the time path of the government budget in EMU countries would have affected price level determination. Our results point to the sustainability of fiscal policy in all the EMU countries but Finland, although no firm conclusions can be drawn about the prevalence…
The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime in the Process of Real and Nominal Convergence
2013
During the last decade, economists have intensively searched for evidence on the importance of the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) hypothesis in explaining nominal convergence. One general result is that B-S can at best explain only part of the excess inflation observed in the European catching-up countries, which suggests that other factors may be at play. In these and related studies, however, the potential role of the exchange rate regime in affecting price convergence in Europe has been overlooked. In this respect, we claim that the choice of the exchange rate regime has decisively affected the path of nominal convergence. To show this, we first model the (endogenous) choice of the exchange rat…
Quantum macroeconomics: A tribute to Bernard Schmitt
2016
Bernard Schmitt, the founder of quantum macroeconomics, died on 26 March 2014. His legacy concerns the discovery of the logical laws of monetary macroeconomics and extends to the explanation of the origin and nature of economic and financial crises. Starting from a novel conception of bank money, he was able to show that economics is founded on true macroeconomic laws, which take the form of logical identities. This paper is a brief and necessarily incomplete introduction to the main themes of Schmitt's macroeconomic analysis. It ranges from the distinction between money and income that lies at the hearth of his theory of the circuit, to the investigation of inflation and unemployment as pa…