Search results for "macroeconomics"
showing 10 items of 477 documents
Arithmetic visibility estimates for OECD countries with three government levels
2003
The importance of fiscal visibility has been well known for a long time but attempts to quantify it by taking the internal structure of every type of revenue and expenditure in a fiscal system into consideration are recent. Indicators used until now rest on structural parameters combined in a multiplicative way with a 0 estimate always resulting in at least one of such factors being null. An alternative way to measure fiscal visibility consists of combining parametric values in an additive instead of a multiplicative form. Calculations can then show estimates which are much more sensitive to the initial values. The aim of this contribution is to present new additive indicators that are appl…
From NGOs to Banks: Does Institutional Transformation Alter the Business Model of Microfinance Institutions?
2017
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd In the microfinance industry an increasing number of providers are undergoing an institutional transformation from NGO to a shareholder-owned and typically regulated financial entity. Little is known about the extent to which this transformation affects the way microfinance institutions (MFIs) conduct their business. Our results obtained by applying an event study methodology to 66 transformed MFIs suggest that portfolio yield is driven down by 3.9 percentage points due to transformation, indicating that clients get more favorable interest rates. MFIs are able to significantly cut down their operational expenses, of which 1.1 percentage points can be attributed to transf…
FISCAL READJUSTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES: A NONLINEAR TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
2009
We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance of nonlinear models. We find evidence that fiscal authorities intervene to reduce real per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold and that fiscal adjustment takes place primarily by cutting government expenditure. The results of out-of-sample density forecast and probability forecasts suggest that a shift from a univariate autoregressive model to a multivariate model improves fore…
Macroeconomic performance and convergence in OECD countries
1996
Abstract This paper investigates the robustness of the correlation between growth and a set of variables which comprises accumulation rates in human and physical capital and medium term macroeconomic indicators in OECD countries. We include these variables as additional regressors in the standard growth equation that comes from the human capital-augmented Solow model. Our results show that variables related to medium term macroeconomic performance affect both growth and convergence. In some periods these variables even outperform the explanatory power of the conventional growth variables such as the accumulation rates. Our results also suggest that it is difficult to analyse the contributio…
Estimation of the stock of capital in Spain
2000
The paper presents the methodology and results of the estimation of the endowments of capital in the Spanish economy. It distinguishes between endowments of public capital and private capital. The series corresponding to the public sector cover the period 1955–97 and consider seven categories (or functions). The estimates are disaggregated by 17 regions and 50 provinces. The level of disaggregation is regional and provincial (NUTS2 and NUTS3 in European terminology). The private capital series cover the period 1964–97 and consider 17 sectors of production, with disaggregation at regional level. The information refers to two variables: gross formation of fixed capital (in current and constan…
IMF lending arrangements in emerging and developing countries – participation and prediction
2016
AbstractThe literature on determinants of International Monetary Fund (IMF) interventions in emerging and developing countries shows that the IMF’s decisions are determined by political and economic causes. This article empirically investigates economic factors, showing that a country’s probability to sign an IMF arrangement can be predicted by looking at a core group of macroeconomic variables. Using discriminant analysis we develop a score function that allows us to predict a country’s future participation in IMF programmes. The study covers 153 emerging and developing countries, over more than 30 years (1980–2011) and 654 agreements, for both non-concessional and concessional loans. The …
The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD countries
2012
The aim of this paper is to assess the short term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1% of social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage point, which, given the share of social spending to GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to the one of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending in Health and Unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consump…
Structural reforms in a debt overhang
2014
We assess the effects of reforms in product and labor markets in a model economy featuring credit restrictions and pre-existing long-term debt. Both elements, which are core features of the current scenario faced by some euro area countries, combine to produce a slow and protracted deleveraging of the private sector and a persistent recession following a negative financial shock. In this environment, we show that product and labor market reforms may stimulate output and employment even in the short run, despite their defl ationary effects. Furthermore, by favoring a faster recovery of investment and collateral values, product market reforms bring forward the end of deleveraging and the exit…
A reply to "banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment: A comment"
2015
Aleksynka (2015) points to some important methodological flaws in the labor market indicators data used in Bernal-Verdugo, Furceri and Guillaume (2013) [BFG]. This paper revisits the empirical findings presented in BFG, and shows that the results and conclusions are little affected by these methodological flaws. In particular, we find that: (i) while in countries with more flexible labor markets the impact of banking crises is sharper but short-lived, in countries with more rigid labor markets the effect is initially more subdued but highly persistent; (ii) comprehensive labor market reforms have a positive impact on unemployment, albeit only in the medium term.
EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms
2008
This paper considers the determinants of the macroeconomic costs of joining EMU for the new EU Member Sates, and compares them with those of the EMU members. Specifically, we investigate the business cycle correlation between the candidate's economy and that of the euro area as a whole, and the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest that EMU membership would not be costly for some countries (Cyprus, Hungary and Malta) but for other countries it could have relevant costs, at least in the short-run. For some of these countries, business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area's business cycle, and risk-sharing mec…