Search results for "model."
showing 10 items of 23664 documents
Predator–vole interactions in northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised
2014
The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986–2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator…
Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change
2021
Species interactions are known to structure ecological communities. Still, the influence of climate change on biodiversity has primarily been evaluated by correlating individual species distributions with local climatic descriptors, then extrapolating into future climate scenarios. We ask whether predictions on arctic arthropod response to climate change can be improved by accounting for species interactions. For this, we use a 14-year-long, weekly time series from Greenland, resolved to the species level by mitogenome mapping. During the study period, temperature increased by 2 degrees C and arthropod species richness halved. We show that with abiotic variables alone, we are essentially un…
From arctic lemmings to adaptive dynamics: Charles Elton's legacy in population ecology.
2001
We shall examine the impact of Charles S. Elton's 1924 article on periodic fluctuations in animal populations on the development of modern population ecology. We argue that his impact has been substantial and that during the past 75 years of research on multi-annual periodic fluctuations in numbers of voles, lemmings, hares, lynx and game animals he has contributed much to the contemporary understanding of the causes and consequences of population regulation. Elton was convinced that the cause of the regular fluctuations was climatic variation. To support this conclusion, he examined long-term population data then available. Despite his firm belief in a climatic cause of the self-repeating …
gllvm: Fast analysis of multivariate abundance data with generalized linear latent variable models inr
2019
The work of J.N. was supported by the Wihuri Foundation. The work of S.T. was supported by the CRoNoS COST Action IC1408.F.K.C.H. was also supported by an ANU cross disciplinary grant.
Coexistence and resource competition.
2000
How large numbers of species coexist on a seemingly limited number of different resources is a classic problem in ecology1, and attempts have been made to solve it experimentally. But we are not convinced that Huisman and Weissing's2 proposal to add non-stationary dynamics in species abundance to the list of possible explanations offers any new insight into this biodiversity enigma.
Species-level selection reduces selfishness through competitive exclusion.
2007
Adaptation does not necessarily lead to traits which are optimal for the population. This is because selection is often the strongest at the individual or gene level. The evolution of selfishness can lead to a ‘tragedy of the commons’, where traits such as aggression or social cheating reduce population size and may lead to extinction. This suggests that species-level selection will result whenever species differ in the incentive to be selfish. We explore this idea in a simple model that combines individual-level selection with ecology in two interacting species. Our model is not influenced by kin or trait-group selection. We find that individual selection in combination with competitive ex…
Model‐based approaches to unconstrained ordination
2014
Summary Unconstrained ordination is commonly used in ecology to visualize multivariate data, in particular, to visualize the main trends between different sites in terms of their species composition or relative abundance. Methods of unconstrained ordination currently used, such as non-metric multidimensional scaling, are algorithm-based techniques developed and implemented without directly accommodating the statistical properties of the data at hand. Failure to account for these key data properties can lead to misleading results. A model-based approach to unconstrained ordination can address this issue, and in this study, two types of models for ordination are proposed based on finite mixtu…
Accounting for preferential sampling in species distribution models
2019
D. C., A. L. Q. and F. M. would like to thank the Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (Spain) for financial support (jointly financed by the European Regional Development Fund) via Research Grants MTM2013‐42323‐P and MTM2016‐77501‐P, and ACOMP/2015/202 from Generalitat Valenciana (Spain). Species distribution models (SDMs) are now being widely used in ecology for management and conservation purposes across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. The increasing interest in SDMs has drawn the attention of ecologists to spatial models and, in particular, to geostatistical models, which are used to associate observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental covariates in a fi…
New conservation viewpoints when plants are viewed at one level higher. Integration of phylogeographic structure, niche modeling and genetic diversit…
2019
Protection and management of closely related endangered species and subspecies at a very narrow regional scale is the origin of multiple dysfunctional conservation decisions. These include artificially increased IUCN risk assessment categories and derived consequences: poor effectiveness in allocating public and private funds or repeat of unnecessary actions/facilities. Data provided by the revisited study of a group of W Mediterranean larkspurs (Delphinium ser. Fissa), including new data on demography, niche modeling, genetic diversity and phylogeography, contributed to a new and wider analysis of causes of threat. Although current IUCN Red List regulations did not allow for assessments at…
Optimal conservation resource allocation under variable economic and ecological time discounting rates in boreal forest
2016
Resource allocation to multiple alternative conservation actions is a complex task. A common trade-off occurs between protection of smaller, expensive, high-quality areas versus larger, cheaper, partially degraded areas. We investigate optimal allocation into three actions in boreal forest: current standard forest management rules, setting aside of mature stands, or setting aside of clear-cuts. We first estimated how habitat availability for focal indicator species and economic returns from timber harvesting develop through time as a function of forest type and action chosen. We then developed an optimal resource allocation by accounting for budget size and habitat availability of indicator…