Search results for "modelling"
showing 10 items of 1353 documents
Exploration of future changes of residential locations in an urban agglomeration using an individual-based simulation model (Mobisim)
2015
To ensure that housing supply is suitable to households’ needs and preferences represents a major planning concern. These needs and preferences depend on the households’ characteristics and on their lifecycle changes (union, birth, divorce…). Residential choice factors are numerous (housing and residential environment characteristics) and their role is often different according to the types of households. Residential dynamics involve a great variety of elements, in interaction with each other, and the causal relationships are difficult to identify. Thus, it is not possible to predict the households’ residential behaviour, nor their possible evolutions, without a suitable tool. To study intr…
SINGLE FACTOR STOCHASTIC MODELS WITH SEASONALITY APPLIED TO UNDERLYING WEATHER DERIVATIVES VARIABLES
2003
This paper estimates single factor stochastic models describing daily air temperature behaviour. We modify classical financial models to reflect temperature seasonality and fit them to a time series representing temperatures in Spain. The estimated models are used in Montecarlo simulations to obtain heating and cooling degree-days, which are used as an underlying reference in weather derivatives. The final goal of this work is to obtain an insight into weather derivative valuation, and so making it easier to manage economic activity risks closely related to temperature (i.e. oil, gas and electricity prices and volumes). En este trabajo se estiman modelos estocásticos unifactoriales que desc…
An integrated fuzzy-stochastic model for revenue management: The hospitality industry case
2016
Revenue management aims at improving the performance of an organization by selling the right product/service to the right customer at the right time. This task is very dependent on uncontrollable external factors. In the hospitality industry, rooms of the hotel represent perishable assets and fixed capacities at the same time. Therefore, in the case of a stochastic process for customers calling in reservations prior to a particular booking date, a common problem for hotels is to devise a policy for maximizing the total expected profit conditional on the set of bookings. We propose a fuzzy model for the hotel revenue management under an uncertain and vague environment. Fuzziness of objectiv…
Stochastic Fatigue Models for Efficient Planning Inspections in Service of Aircraft Structures
2008
For important fatigue-sensitive structures of aircraft whose breakdowns cause serious accidents, it is required to keep their reliability extremely high. In this paper, we discuss inspection strategies for such important structures against fatigue failure. The focus is on the case when there are fatiguecracks unexpectedly detected in a fleet of aircraft within a warranty period (prior to the first inspection). The paper examines this case and proposes stochastic models for prediction of fatigue-crack growth to determine appropriate inspections intervals. We also do not assume known parameters of the underlying distributions, and the estimation of that is incorporated into the analysis and d…
A model of the filling process of an intermittent distribution network
2010
In many countries, private tanks are acquired by users to reduce their vulnerability to intermittent supply. The presence of these local reservoirs modifies the user demand pattern and usually increases user water demand at the beginning of the service period depending on the tank filling process. This practice is thus responsible for the inequality that occurs among users: those located in advantaged positions of the network are able to obtain water resources soon after the service period begins, while disadvantaged users have to wait much longer, after the network is full. This dynamic process requires the development of ad hoc models in order to obtain reliable results. This paper discus…
DEVELOPMENT OF AN OLIVE PHENOLOGICAL MODEL IN RELATION TO AIR TEMPERATURE
2008
The effect of air temperature on olive phenological development has not been extensively studied. Indirectly related data are available, mostly from air pollen concentration measurements rather than direct observation of phenological stages. Data on phenological stages of olive collected in Sicily, by the Sicilian Agrometeorological Service (SIAS), in 10 locations characterized by different climatic conditions were used to develop and calibrate a phenological model for the most important developmental stages in olive. Phenological stages under study were: bud break, inflorescence emission, and full bloom A base-temperature linear model was developed by choosing a temperature threshold using…
Breeding abundance of threatened raptors as estimated from occurrence data
2008
A model derived from the negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been proposed to solve the problem of predicting abundance of species from occurrence maps. The viability of NBD was explored for predicting the breeding abundance of five threatened species of raptor: Bonelli's Eagle Hieraaetus fasciatus, Golden Eagle Aquila chrysaetos, Peregrine Falco peregrinus, Lanner Falco biarmicus and Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni. First, the accuracy of the NBD was tested in a reference area where the species abundance and occurrence were known through intensive field surveys. Next, an estimation of regional abundance derived from NBD was made for each species. These estimates were then compared to th…
Geospatial modelling and map analysis allowed measuring regression of the upper limit of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows under human pressure
2018
Abstract Marine coastal ecosystems are facing structural and functional changes due to the increasing human footprint worldwide, and the assessment of their long-term changes becomes particularly challenging. Measures of change can be done by comparing the observed ecosystem status to a purposely defined reference condition. In this paper, a geospatial modelling approach based on 2D mapping and morphodynamic data was used to predict the natural position of the upper limit (i.e., the landward continuous front) of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows settled on soft bottom. This predictive model, formerly developed at the regional spatial scale, was here applied for the first time at the Medit…
The impact of climate change on Mediterranean intertidal communities: losses in coastal ecosystem integrity and services
2014
As has been shown for other ecosystems, the ecological and socio-economic impacts of climate change on Mediterranean intertidal habitats are highly variable in space and time. We conducted field and laboratory measurements of cellular, ecophysiological and behavioural responses of selected intertidal invertebrates (mussels, gastropods and sponges) and completed a literature review to determine what is known of socioeconomic consequences of these biological changes. Results suggest significant gaps in our knowledge that may impede a complete understanding of likely impacts (physical, biological, and socioeconomic) and that sufficient data for such an analysis is available only for mussels. A…