Search results for "modit"
showing 10 items of 72 documents
Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals
2011
The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, the authors document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on co-movement of commodity prices.
Testing the long-run relationship between health expenditures and GDP in the presence of structural change: the case of Spain
2007
This article examines the long-run relationship between per capita US$ PPP health expenditures (HE) and per capita US$ PPP national income (GDP), using Spanish data over the period 1960 to 2001. We extend previous analyses by addressing the question of whether this relationship is stable over time, allowing for structural changes at an unknown date. Our empirical results are consistent with the existence of a long-run relationship between both variables, with two structural changes in 1971 and 1991. On the other hand, health would have been characterized as a luxury commodity, even though increasingly less over time.
Do commodity assets hedge uncertainties? What we learn from the recent turbulence period?
2022
AbstractThis study analyses the impact of different uncertainties on commodity markets to assess commodity markets' hedging or safe-haven properties. Using time-varying dynamic conditional correlation and wavelet-based Quantile-on-Quantile regression models, our findings show that, both before and during the COVID-19 crisis, soybeans and clean energy stocks offer strong safe-haven opportunities against cryptocurrency price uncertainty and geopolitical risks (GPR). Soybean markets weakly hedge cryptocurrency policy uncertainty, US economic policy uncertainty, and crude oil volatility. In addition, GSCI commodity and crude oil also offer a weak safe-haven property against cryptocurrency uncer…
Performative Regional (dis)Integration: Transnational Markets, Mobile Commodities, and Bordered North–South Differences
2011
Being implicated in an ambivalent play of both border crossing and drawing, global commodity chains are an ideal organizational field to analyze the fundamental paradox of global connectivity. Approaching the contingency of borders from a perspective informed by the performativity approach to markets, this paper starts from the assumption that this paradox is particularly salient in the context of commodity chains which connect the Global South with the Global North. Taking the example of one single agrocommodity, the tomato, and two border regions (Morocco–EU and Mexico–USA), we follow the links and heterogeneous associations which stretch from the border to the fields, supermarket shelves…
A decentralized solution for the constrained minimum cost flow
2010
In this paper we propose a decentralized solution to the problem of network stabilization, under flow constraints ensuring steady—state flow optimality. We propose a stabilizing strategy for network flow control with capacity constraints which drives the buffer levels arbitrarily close to a desired reference. This is a decentralized strategy optimizing the flow via the minimization of a quadratic cost of the control. A second problem characterized by non-fully connected networks is also considered, for which an exact network equilibrium is not possible. Here, the strategy, in the absence of constraints leads to a least square decentralized problem, but, unfortunately, in the presence of con…
Green and good? The investment performance of US environmental mutual funds
2011
Increased concern for the environment has increased the number of investment opportunities in mutual funds specialized in promoting responsible environmental attitudes. This article examines the performance and risk sensitivities of US green mutual funds vis-a-vis their conventional peers. We also analyze and compare this performance relative to other socially responsible investing (SRI) mutual funds. In order to implement this analysis, we apply a CAPM-based methodology and find that in the 1987–2009 period, environ- mental funds had lower performance than conventional funds with similar characteristics. However, if we focus on a more recent period (2001–2009), green funds achieved adjuste…
Hedging effectiveness of European wheat futures markets
2014
The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. In this paper, the hedging effectiveness of European and US wheat futures markets were studied to test whether they were affected by the high price instability after 2007. Implicitly, this is a test of whether the increasing presence of speculation in futures markets have made them divorced from the physical markets. A multivariate GARCH model was applied to compute optimal hedging ratios. No important evidence was found of a change in the effectiveness of hedging after 2007.
The ARYA crop yield forecasting algorithm: Application to the main wheat exporting countries
2021
Abstract Wheat is the most important commodity traded in the international food market. Thus, accurate and timely information on wheat production can help mitigate food price fluctuations. Within the existing operational regional and global scale agricultural monitoring systems that provide information on global crop yield and area forecasts, there are still fundamental gaps: #1. Lack of quantitative Earth Observation (EO) derived crop information, #2. Lack of global but detailed (national or subnational level) and timely crop production forecasts and #3. Lack of information on forecast uncertainties. In this study we present the Agriculture Remotely-sensed Yield Algorithm (ARYA) an EO-base…
Patterns of Regional Income Distribution in Uruguay (1872–2012): A Story of Agglomeration, Natural Resources and Public Policies
2020
In this chapter, we provide a new data set of regional GDP and GDP per capita for Uruguay between 1870 and 2012. As regards the long-term evolution of regional inequality, we find evidence of a persistent decline from the last third of the nineteenth century up to the 1960s with a strong reversal of the process from then on. The first decade of the twenty-first century, however, shows a new decreasing trend in regional inequality. Montevideo has represented a large share, both demographically and economically, over time as consequence of a privileged access to sea and the fact that the city was built around a natural port with excellent conditions. In addition, agglomeration forces identifi…
Assessing commodity price risks and terms of trade exposures in emerging and developing countries
2020
This paper provides novel evidence on commodity exposure (impacts of commodity price and terms of trade fluctuations) amongst 46 emerging and developing countries (EMDCs) in Africa, Asia and the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. We focus on the exposures of six macroeconomic variables to the commodity prices and terms of trade, based on the real business cycle (RBC) theory. Our empirical results indicate that, overall, about 10% of the macroeconomic variation amongst the EMDCs is due to commodity market-related exposures. The Asian and LAC economies are especially sensitive to changes in commodity prices. The changes in the prices of world trade have an imminent impact on non-commo…