Search results for "monetary policy"
showing 10 items of 105 documents
Inflation and optimal monetary policy in a model with firm heterogeneity and Bertrand competition
2018
Abstract We study the joint implications of heterogeneity of total factor productivity and strategic price interactions between firms on the dynamics of inflation and the design of optimal monetary policy. In this setting, more productive firms respond less to shocks affecting their marginal costs than less productive firms. As a consequence, economies with a larger proportion of highly productive firms face a flatter Phillips curve. Moreover, when these two features concur, the Ramsey problem gives rise to an optimal non-zero long run inflation that amplifies the differences in relative prices between more efficient and less efficient firms, thus increasing the market share of the former. …
An Analysis of the Time-Varying Behavior of the Equilibrium Velocity of Money in the Euro Area
2020
Recent developments in inflation and M3 velocity in the euro area have raised serious doubts about the reliability of M3 growth as a pillar of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. We develop a very flexible and comprehensive state-space framework for modeling the velocity of circulation. Our specification allows for the estimation of different autoregressive alternatives and includes control instruments, whose coefficients can be set up either common or idiosyncratic. This is particularly useful to detect asymmetries in the reaction among countries to common shocks. Our findings first suggest that the downward trend of M3 velocity is mainly explained by the evolution of permanent income, pro…
Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models
2010
The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significant…
A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU
2001
In this paper we estimate a small forward-looking macroeconomic model for EMU which allows us to analyze the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank through an interest rate rule that stabilizes inflation and output. The estimation of this model, which comprises forward-looking versions of the IS and the Phillips curves as well as the interest rate rule, is conducted by GMM using quarterly data from 1986 to 2000. We find that this simple model matches the dynamic properties of the output gap, inflation and the interest rate in EMU quite accurately. We also perform several exercises that show the response of output, inflation and interest rates …
Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables
2010
The aim of this work is to assess the short and medium term impact of banking crises on developing economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 159 countries from 1970 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises produce significant output losses, both in the short and in the medium term. The effect depends on structural and policy variables. Output losses are larger for relatively more wealthy economies, characterized by a higher level of financial deepening and larger current account imbalances. Flexible exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy have been found to be efficient tools to attenuate the effect of the crises. Among banking intervention policies, liquidity support resulted to be th…
A Scholar in Action in Interwar America: John H. Williams on Trade Theory and Bretton Woods
2009
In this paper we analyse the scientific contributions of Harvard economist John H. Williams as international trade theorist and monetary reformer together with his activities as a Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In the first 2 Sections we first present a succinct overview of Williams’ main contributions to international trade theory and to the interwar debate on the reform of the international monetary system. Particular attention will be devoted to his early academic writings which contained different critical arguments against the two main tenets of classical international economics: the Ricardian theory of comparative advantages and the gold standard. These critic…
Spain in the euro: a general equilibrium analysis
2010
Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models combine microeconomic behavioural foundations with a full-system Bayesian likelihood estimation approach using key macro-economic variables. Because of the usefulness of this class ofmodels for addressing questions regarding the impact and consequences of alternative monetary policies they are nowadays widely used for forecasting and policy analysis at central banks and other institutions. In this paper we provide a brief description of the two main aggregate euro area models at the ECB. Both models share a common core but their detailed specification differs reflecting their specific focus and use. The New Area Wide Model (NAWM)…
Is an Increase of the Fiscal Budget at EMU level Desirable?
2005
The birth of the European Monetary Union (EMU) has determined the creation of a common currency, the Euro, but unlike other monetary unions, the EMU does not have a central fiscal authority. The role of fiscal policy is left to the responsibility of the governments of the EMU member States. The new architecture modifies the assignment of the instruments to the objectives, especially those of stabilization. The loss of the sovereignty of monetary policy and exchange rate control by the individual member states has determined the inability to use two important instruments of insurance against the risks of shocks. Moreover, the Treaty of Maastricht and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) could…
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS, AND THE HOUSING MARKET
2017
In this paper, we assess the characteristics of the housing market and its main determinants. Using data for 20 industrial countries over the period 1970Q1–2012Q2 and a discrete-time Weibull duration model, we find that the likelihood of the end of a housing boom or a housing bust increases over time. Additionally, we show that the different phases of the housing market cycle are strongly dependent on the economic activity, but credit market conditions are particularly important in the case of housing booms. The empirical findings also indicate that although housing booms have similar lengths in European and non-European countries, housing busts are typically shorter in European countries. …
HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?
2016
Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movement of busi…