Search results for "nonlinear"
showing 10 items of 3684 documents
Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between stock prices and dividends
2008
According to several empirical studies, the linear present-value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long run. We analyse the possible presence of threshold cointegration between real stock prices and dividends for the US market during the period from 1871:1 to 2004:6. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration between stock prices and dividends is rejected in favour of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. We find also that stock prices do not respond to equilibrium error, and dividends respond to the past divergence only if the deviation from the equilibrium error does not exceed the estimated threshold parameter. This in turn would…
A note on nonlinear dynamics in the Spanish term structure of interest rates
2006
Abstract This note applies the methodology to test for threshold cointegration recently proposed by Hansen and Seo (2002) [Hansen, B. E. & Seo, B., (2002). Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models. Journal of Econometrics, 110, 293–318] to the Spanish term structure of interest rates during the period 1980:1–2002:12. The evidence suggests that nonlinear cointegration between long and short interest rates is clearly rejected, so that a linear cointegration model would provide an adequate empirical description for the Spanish term structure of interest rate.
The closed-form solution for a family of four-dimension nonlinear MHDS
2008
In this article we propose a method for solving a general class of four-dimension nonlinear modified Hamiltonian dynamic systems in closed form. This method may be used to study several intertemporal optimization problems sharing a common structure, which involves unbounded technological constraints as well as multiple controls and state variables. The method is developed by solving the first-order conditions associated with the planner's problem corresponding to the Lucas [1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 3-42] two-sector model of endogenous growth, and allows for explicitly showing the transitional dynamics of the model. Despite the externa…
Nonlinear GARCH models for highly persistent volatility
2005
In this paper we study new nonlinear GARCH models mainly designed for time series with highly persistent volatility. For such series, conventional GARCH models have often proved unsatisfactory because they tend to exaggerate volatility persistence and exhibit poor forecasting ability. Our main emphasis is on models that are similar to previously introduced smooth transition GARCH models except for the novel feature that a lagged value of conditional variance is used as the transition variable. This choice of the transition variable corresponds to the idea that high persistence in conditional variance is related to relatively infrequent changes in regime. U sing the theory of Markov chains w…
Finance, globalisation, technology and inequality: Do nonlinearities matter?
2021
Abstract Relying on data for 90 economies over 1970-2015 and panel estimation techniques, we investigate how financial development, globalisation and technology affect income inequality. Our findings reveal significant nonlinearities, consistent with either Ushaped or inverted-U shaped relationships. As such, depending on whether a certain threshold value is achieved, the same determinants of income distribution exert opposite effects in different countries. Globalisation is associated with increasing inequality in most advanced economies, but with falling disparities for the large majority of emerging economies. Technology and financial development lead to increasing inequality for most em…
Nonlinear impact estimation in spatial autoregressive models
2018
International audience; This paper extends the literature on the calculation and interpretation of impacts for spatial autoregressive models. Using a Bayesian framework, we show how the individual direct and indirect impacts associated with an exogenous variable introduced in a nonlinear way in such models can be computed, theoretically and empirically. Rather than averaging the individual impacts, we suggest to graphically analyze them along with their confidence intervals calculated from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We also explicitly derive the form of the gap between individual impacts in the spatial autoregressive model and the corresponding model without a spatial lag and show, in…
No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35
2013
This paper analyzes the behavior of Ibex35 from January 1999 to December 2001, in order to check if it follows a different process from random walk so its return is not a white noise and it can be predictable, against the efficient market hypothesis. For that, a nonlinear generating process of return will be considered and a STAR-APARCH model will be specified. This model allows a nonlinear behavior in the conditional mean and in the conditional variance. The empirical results show that the Ibex35 follows a nonlinear and asymmetric process, both in the conditional mean as in the conditional variance, so the weak-version of efficient market hypothesis is rejected. El trabajo analiza el compo…
Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation
2004
According to several empirical studies, US inflation and nominal interest rates, as well as the real interest rate, can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is not consistent with the theoretical models. In this paper we introduce a nonlinear bivariate mixture autoregressive model that seems to fit quarterly US data (1952 Q1 – 2000 Q2) reasonably well. It is found that the three-month treasury bill rate and inflation share a common nonlinear component that explains a large part of their persistence. The real interest rate is devoid of this component, indicating one-for-one m…
NUCLEAR MAGNETIC ORDER, USE OF SPIN DEPENDENT AMPLITUDES
1993
The use of the spin dependent part of the nuclear scattering length gives access to neutron scattering to the field of nuclear magnetism. This paper presents the theoretical and experimental background for such experiments. The available results on nuclear order will be reviewed and put if possible in the larger frame of many body physics. The possibilities of using nuclear magnetism for new applications or the improvement of scattering techniques will be stressed as well.
Complexity and Nonlinearity Analysis of the Time Series of Electric Field Intensity
2021
In this work, the conditional entropy (CE) and the method of surrogate data are applied on time series of electric field (EF) intensity to explore their degree of complexity and the possible presence of nonlinear dynamics. The time series were obtained during the wide-band cumulative EF intensity monitoring, performed by one sensor of the Serbian EMF RATEL monitoring system installed in the campus area of the University of Novi Sad, and are re-sampled at one sample per two hours over consecutive time epochs of one month duration. The field intensity measurements during the years 2019 and 2020 allowed us to explore the effects of mobility restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic on the …