Search results for "null hypothesis"
showing 10 items of 39 documents
Can visualization alleviate dichotomous thinking? Effects of visual representations on the cliff effect
2021
Common reporting styles for statistical results in scientific articles, such as $p$ p -values and confidence intervals (CI), have been reported to be prone to dichotomous interpretations, especially with respect to the null hypothesis significance testing framework. For example when the $p$ p -value is small enough or the CIs of the mean effects of a studied drug and a placebo are not overlapping, scientists tend to claim significant differences while often disregarding the magnitudes and absolute differences in the effect sizes. This type of reasoning has been shown to be potentially harmful to science. Techniques relying on the visual estimation of the strength of evidence have been recom…
Empirical Analyses of Networks in Finance
2018
Abstract The recent global financial crisis has triggered a huge interest in the use of network concepts and network tools to better understand how instabilities can propagate through the financial system. The literature is today quite vast, covering both theoretical and empirical aspects. This review concentrates on empirical work, and associated methodologies, concerned with the evaluation of the fragility and resilience of financial and credit markets. The first part of the review examines the literature on systemic risk that arise from banks mutual exposures. These exposures stem primarily from interbank lending and derivative positions, but also, indirectly, from common holdings of oth…
Time Series Momentum in the US Stock Market: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Implications
2020
There is much controversy in the academic literature on the presence of short-term trends in financial markets and the trend-following strategy's profitability. This paper restricts its attention to the study of time-series momentum (TSMOM) in the US stock market. The paper aims to suggest answers to several important questions regarding TSMOM and to explain the existing controversy. Our answer to the question, whether short-term trends exist, is strongly affirmative. For the first time, we suppose that the returns follow a p-order autoregressive process with p>1 and evaluate this process's parameters. Fairly accurate knowledge of the momentum generating process allows us to provide analyti…
Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between goods and services inflation in the United States
2006
In this paper, we model the long-run relationship between goods and services inflation for the United States over the period 1968:1–2003:3. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between the two inflation series. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration would be rejected in favor of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. Consequently, we could expect a cointegrating relationship only when the divergence between services inflation and goods inflation is above the threshold point estimate.
Relative Age Effect in the Sport Environment. Role of Physical Fitness and Cognitive Function in Youth Soccer Players
2019
The need to achieve short-term competitive outcomes in sports may influence the emergence of talent selection strategies, which could bias individuals&rsquo
The Export-Productivity Link in Brazilian Manufacturing Firms
2015
This paper explores the link between exports and total factor productivity in Brazilian manufacturing firms over the period 2000–08. The Brazilian experience is instructive, as it is a case of an economy that expanded aggregate exports significantly, but with stagnant aggregate growth in total factor productivity. The paper first estimates firm-level total factor productivity under alternative assumptions (exogenous and endogenous law of motion for productivity) following a GMM procedure. In turn, the analysis uses stochastic dominance techniques to assess whether the ex ante most productive firms are those that start exporting (self-selection hypothesis). Finally, the paper tests whether e…
Statistical validation of rival models for observable stochastic process and its identification
2011
In this paper, for statistical validation of rival (analytical or simulation) models collected for modeling observable process in stochastic system (say, transportation or service system), a uniformly most powerful invariant (UMPI) test is developed from the generalized maximum likelihood ratio (GMLR). This test can be considered as a result of a new approach to solving the Behrens-Fisher problem when covariance matrices of multivariate normal populations (compared with respect to their means) are different and unknown. The test makes use of an invariant statistic whose distribution, under the null hypothesis, does not depend on the unknown (nuisance) parameters. The sample size and thresho…
Rank scores tests of multivariate independence
2004
New rank scores test statistics are proposed for testing whether two random vectors are independent. The tests are asymptotically distribution-free for elliptically symmetric marginal distributions. Recently, Gieser and Randles (1997), Taskinen, Kankainen and Oja (2003) and Taskinen, Oja and Randles (2005) introduced and discussed different multivariate extensions of the quadrant test, Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho statistics. In this paper, standardized multivariate spatial signs and the (univariate) ranks of the Mahalanobis-type distances of the observations from the origin are combined to construct ranks cores tests of independence. The limiting distributions of the test statistics ar…
Quantifying Preferential Trading in the e-MID Interbank Market
2013
Interbank markets allow credit institutions to exchange capital for purposes of liquidity management. These markets are among the most liquid markets in the financial system. However, liquidity of interbank markets dropped during the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and such a lack of liquidity influenced the entire economic system. In this paper, we analyze transaction data from the e-MID market which is the only electronic interbank market in the Euro Area and US, over a period of eleven years (1999-2009). We adapt a method developed to detect statistically validated links in a network, in order to reveal preferential trading in a directed network. Preferential trading between banks is detecte…
Manipulating the alpha level cannot cure significance testing
2018
We argue that making accept/reject decisions on scientific hypotheses, including a recent call for changing the canonical alpha level from p = 0.05 to p = 0.005, is deleterious for the finding of new discoveries and the progress of science. Given that blanket and variable alpha levels both are problematic, it is sensible to dispense with significance testing altogether. There are alternatives that address study design and sample size much more directly than significance testing does; but none of the statistical tools should be taken as the new magic method giving clear-cut mechanical answers. Inference should not be based on single studies at all, but on cumulative evidence from multiple in…