Search results for "probabilistic"
showing 10 items of 380 documents
CAD-Based Training of an Expert System and a Hidden Markov Model for Obstacle Detection in an Industrial Robot Environment
2012
Abstract Deploying industrial robots in harsh outdoor environments require additional functionalities not currently provided. For instance, movement of standard industrial robots are pre-programmed to avoid collision. In dynamic and less structured environments, however, the need for online detection and avoidance of unmodelled objects arises. This paper focus on online obstacle detection using a laser sensor by proposing three different approaches, namely a CAD-based Expert System (ES) and two probabilistic methods based on a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which requires observation based training. In addition, this paper contributes by providing a comparison between the CAD-based ES and the tw…
A Robustness Approach to Reliability
2012
Reliability of products is here regarded with respect to failure avoidance rather than probability of failure. To avoid failures, we emphasize variation and suggest some powerful tools for handling failures due to variation. Thus, instead of technical calculation of probabilities from data that usually are too weak for correct results, we emphasize the statistical thinking that puts the designers focus on the critical product functions. Making the design insensitive to unavoidable variation is called robust design and is handled by (i) identification and classification of variation, (ii) design of experiments to find robust solutions, and (iii) statistically based estimations of proper safe…
Probabilistic Approach to the Design of Photovoltaic Distributed Generation in Low Voltage Feeder
2006
This paper presents the probabilistic approach to the design of photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) and its impact on low voltage (LV) feeder. Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict solar radiation and load, and an exact method is used to solve the power flow. The method is tested on two study cases, and the results are compared with those from deterministic approach based on commonly used scenarios. The probabilistic approach is shown necessary to obtain the optimum PV rating based on technical constraints and different objectives, including accepting a reasonable risk when needed. The results also indicate that PV-DG in a realistic case will most probably improve the voltage …
Unidirectional Direct Load Control through Smart Plugs
2014
International audience; Balancing energy demand and production is be-coming a more and more challenging task for energy utilities also because of the larger penetration of renewable energies which are more difficult to predict and control. While the traditional solution is to dynamically adapt energy production to follow time-varying demand, a new trend is to drive demand itself. Most of the ongoing actions in this direction involve greedy energy consumers, like industrial plants, supermarkets or large buildings. Pervasive communication technologies may allow in the near future to push further the granularity of such approach, by having the energy utility interacting with residen-tial appli…
Ideas in the History of Nano/Miniaturization and (Quantum) Simulators: Feynman, Education and Research Reorientation in Translational Science
2015
Cultural history of nanominiaturization, computing, quantum computing and simulating is necessary to comprehend human character and place it in the whole of living beings. Ideas in the history of physics by Feynman, etc. are valued by the questions that generate. A series of questions, answers and hypothesis introduces the nature of the history of nanominiaturization, providing facts. Nanotechnology adds a third dimension to the periodic table of the elements. Thinking about computers was useful. It must do with learning computers possibilities and physics potential. Provisional conclusions follow. (1) Nature (space–time) is not classical but discrete; quantization is a different kind of ma…
A statistic approach of cables ageing in MV lines on thermal and electrical combined stress
2006
The paper introduces a methodology that through a probabilistic characterisation of load for MV network, and implementing a life model for combined electric and thermal stresses, simulates the process of ageing of the insulating materials evaluating the expected life time of the cable. Such evaluation is necessary to the possibility of assuming less restrictive thermal overloading limits on electrical cables, with the consequential increase on reserve that cables could offer. A numerical example is reported to better explain the methodology
Bayesian inference analysis of the uncertainty linked to the evaluation of potential flood damage in urban areas.
2012
Flood damage in urbanized watersheds may be assessed by combining the flood depth–damage curves and the outputs of urban flood models. The complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for model calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results and consequently in damage estimation. Moreover depth–damage functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the regression law that is used. The present paper carries out the analysis of the uncertainty connected to the flood damage estimate obtained combining the use of hydraulic models and depth–damage curve…
Probabilistic stability analysis of social obesity epidemic by a delayed stochastic model
2014
Abstract Sufficient conditions for stability in probability of the equilibrium point of a social obesity epidemic model with distributed delay and stochastic perturbations are obtained. The obesity epidemic model is demonstrated on the example of the Region of Valencia, Spain. The considered nonlinear system is linearized in the neighborhood of the positive point of equilibrium and a sufficient condition for asymptotic mean square stability of the zero solution of the constructed linear system is obtained.
First-order linear differential equations whose data are complex random variables: Probabilistic solution and stability analysis via densities
2022
[EN] Random initial value problems to non-homogeneous first-order linear differential equations with complex coefficients are probabilistically solved by computing the first probability density of the solution. For the sake of generality, coefficients and initial condition are assumed to be absolutely continuous complex random variables with an arbitrary joint probability density function. The probability of stability, as well as the density of the equilibrium point, are explicitly determined. The Random Variable Transformation technique is extensively utilized to conduct the overall analysis. Several examples are included to illustrate all the theoretical findings.
Non-parametric probabilistic forecasting of academic performance in Spanish high school using an epidemiological modelling approach
2013
Academic underachievement is a concern of paramount importance in Europe, and particularly in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school do not achieve the minimum knowledge academic requirement. In order to analyse this problem, we propose a mathematical model via a system of ordinary differential equations to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, a bootstrapping approach is employed. This technique permits to for…