Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Almost sure central limit theorems for random ratios and applications to lse for fractional ornstein–uhlenbeck processes
2012
We investigate an almost sure limit theorem (ASCLT) for sequences of random variables having the form of a ratio of two terms such that the numerator satisfies the ASCLT and the denominator is a positive term which converges almost surely to 1. This result leads to the ASCLT for least square estimators for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by fractional Brownian motion.
Simulated Annealing in Bayesian Decision Theory
1992
Since the seminal paper by Kirkpatrick, Gelatt and Vechhi (1983), a number of papers in the scientific literature refer to simulated annealing as a powerful random optimization method which promises to deliver, within reasonable computing times, optimal or nearly optimal solutions to complex decision problems hitherto forbidding. The algorithm, which uses the physical process of annealing as a metaphor, is special in that, at each iteration, one may move with positive probability to solutions with higher values of the function to minimize, rather than directly jumping to the point with the smallest value within the neighborhood, thus drastically reducing the chances of getting trapped in lo…
Bayesian calibration of the nitrous oxide emission module of an agro-ecosystem model
2008
1. NitroEurope Open Science Conference on Reactive Nitrogen and the European Greenhouse Gas Balance ; Ghent (Belgique) - (2008-02-20 - 2008-02-21) / Conférence; Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the main biogenic greenhouse gas contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate therefore requires a capacity to predict N2O emissions in relation to environmental conditions and crop management. Biophysical models simulating the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in agro-ecosystems have a unique potential to explore these relationships, but are fraught with high uncertainties in their parameters due to their variations over time and space. H…
Water quality indicators: Comparison of a probabilistic index and a general quality index. The case of the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (Spai…
2010
Abstract The main objective of this work is to measure water quality using a stochastic index built with tools of Probability Theory. Its great advantage is that it accounts for the underlying uncertainty in quality classification that results from variations in the data for individual physical and chemical characteristics, considering them as random variables. We compare the results obtained by measuring water quality with this index (the probabilistic index, PI ) and a classical deterministic index (the general quality index, GQI ). Also we do a comparison with other usual indices in order to validate the PI index. To demonstrate the application of PI and GQI indices, we used information …
Ranking of Brain Tumour Classifiers Using a Bayesian Approach
2009
This study presents a ranking for classifers using a Bayesian perspective. This ranking framework is able to evaluate the performance of the models to be compared when they are inferred from different sets of data. It also takes into account the performance obtained on samples not used during the training of the classifiers. Besides, this ranking assigns a prior to each model based on a measure of similarity of the training data to a test case. An evaluation consisting of ranking brain tumour classifiers is presented. These multilayer perceptron classifiers are trained with 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) signals following a multiproject multicenter evaluation approach. We demonstr…
Path integral solution handled by Fast Gauss Transform
2009
Abstract The path integral solution method is an effective tool for evaluating the response of non-linear systems under Normal White Noise, in terms of probability density function (PDF). In this paper it has been observed that, using short-time Gaussian approximation, the PDF at a given time instant is the Gauss Transform of the PDF at an earlier close time instant. Taking full advantage of the so-called Fast Gauss Transform a new integration method is proposed. In order to overcome some unsatisfactory trends of the classical Fast Gauss Transform, a new version termed as Symmetric Fast Gauss Transform is also proposed. Moreover, extensions to the two Fast Gauss Transform to MDOF systems ar…
Path Integral Method for Nonlinear Systems Under Levy White Noise
2017
In this paper, the probabilistic response of nonlinear systems driven by alpha-stable Lévy white noises is considered. The path integral solution is adopted for determining the evolution of the probability density function of nonlinear oscillators. Specifically, based on the properties of alpha-stable random variables and processes, the path integral solution is extended to deal with Lévy white noises input with any value of the stability index alpha. It is shown that at the limit when the time increments tend to zero, the Einstein–Smoluchowsky equation, governing the evolution of the response probability density function, is fully restored. Application to linear and nonlinear systems under…
Approximate solution of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation
2002
The aim of this paper is to present a thorough investigation of approximate techniques for estimating the stationary and non-stationary probability density function (PDF) of the response of nonlinear systems subjected to (additive and/or multiplicative) Gaussian white noise excitations. Attention is focused on the general scheme of weighted residuals for the approximate solution of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation. It is shown that the main drawbacks of closure schemes, such as negative values of the PDF in some regions, may be overcome by rewriting the FPK equation in terms of log-probability density function (log-PDF). The criteria for selecting the set of weighting functions i…
Harmonic Balance Method and Stability of Discontinuous Systems
2019
The development of the theory of discontinuous dynamical systems and differential inclusions was not only due to research in the field of abstract mathematics but also a result of studies of particular problems in mechanics. One of the first methods, used for the analysis of dynamics in discontinuous mechanical systems, was the harmonic balance method developed in the thirties of the twentieth century. In our work, the results of analysis obtained by the method of harmonic balance, which is an approximate method, are compared with the results obtained by rigorous mathematical methods and numerical simulation.
La sopravvivenza immediata delle start-up italiane del settore manifatturiero sanitario: un'analisi multilevel
2017
The immediate survival of the Italian start-up businesses in healthcare industry: a multilevel analysis Objectives: The purpose of this contribution is to provide novel evidence about the main determinants of the short-run survival of pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturing start-up firms in Italy. In order to assess both the firm-specific determinants and the observed and unobserved regional and contextual characteristics, we model the three-year firm survival probability by means of a multilevel logistic framework. Methods and Results: The empirical analysis focuses on an internationally comparable database of the population of firms built up and managed by the Italian National In…