Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
A distributed Bayesian approach to fault detection in sensor networks
2012
Sensor networks are widely used in industrial and academic applications as the pervasive sensing module of an intelligent system. Sensor nodes may occasionally produce incorrect measurements due to battery depletion, dust on the sensor, manumissions and other causes. The aim of this paper is to develop a distributed Bayesian fault detection algorithm that classifies measurements coming from the network as corrupted or not. The computational complexity is polynomial so the algorithm scales well with the size of the network. We tested the approach on a synthetic dataset and obtained significant results in terms of correctly labeled measurements.
Frequency format facilitates reasoning in simple numerical tasks.
2005
This study examined whether it is easier to reason in terms of frequencies or with percentages for simple numerical tasks. Research on probabilistic reasoning has shown that humans can draw correct inferences when problems are presented in terms of natural frequencies but not when in percentages. Whether the same effect can be observed in other numerically simple tasks which are not probabilistic was studied with 40 undergraduate students who volunteered for the experiment (13 men, 27 women; M age of 23 yr.). In a simple numerical task involving frequencies or percentages ( N = 20), their performance showed representation in frequencies facilitates the task.
On some recent investigations of probability in group theory
2010
We describe some recent contributions on the probability of commuting pairs, introduced by P. Erdos, W. Gustafson and P. Turan around 1968 and 1973. Both combinatorial methods and character theory have significant application in this context and we illustrate some standard techniques and strategies, once generalizations of the probability of commuting pairs want to be studied. The importance of the subject is emphasized in some remarks and open questions, which reformulate some classical conjectures in group theory via a probabilistic approach.
Canonical Extensions of Conditional Probabilities and Compound Conditionals
2022
In this paper we show that the probability of conjunctions and disjunctions of conditionals in a recently introduced framework of Boolean algebras of conditionals are in full agreement with the corresponding operations of conditionals as defined in the approach developed by two of the authors to conditionals as three-valued objects, with betting-based semantics, and specified as suitable random quantities. We do this by first proving that the canonical extension of a full conditional probability on a finite algebra of events to the corresponding algebra of conditionals is compatible with taking subalgebras of events.
Iterated Conditionals, Trivalent Logics, and Conditional Random Quantities
2022
We consider some notions of iterated conditionals by checking the validity of some desirable basic logical and probabilistic properties, which are valid for simple conditionals. We consider de Finetti’s notion of conditional as a three-valued object and as a conditional random quantity in the betting framework. We recall the notions of conjunction and disjunction among conditionals in selected trivalent logics. Then, we analyze the two notions of iterated conditional introduced by Calabrese and de Finetti, respectively. We show that the compound probability theorem and other basic properties are not preserved by these objects, by also computing some probability propagation rules. Then, for …
Connexive Logic, Probabilistic Default Reasoning, and Compound Conditionals
2023
We present two approaches to investigate the validity of connexive principles and related formulas and properties within coherence-based probability logic. Connexive logic emerged from the intuition that conditionals of the form if not-A, then A, should not hold, since the conditional’s antecedent not-A contradicts its consequent A. Our approaches cover this intuition by observing that the only coherent probability assessment on the conditional event A | not-A is p(A | not-A) = 0. In the first approach we investigate connexive principles within coherence-based probabilistic default reasoning, by interpreting defaults and negated defaults in terms of suitable probabilistic constraints on con…
Sequentially Forecasting Economic Indices Using Mixture Linear Combinations of EP Distributions
2021
This article displays an application of the statistical method moti- vated by Bruno de Finetti's operational subjective theory of probability. We use exchangeable forecasting distributions based on mixtures of linear com- binations of exponential power (EP) distributions to forecast the sequence of daily rates of return from the Dow-Jones index of stock prices over a 20 year period. The operational subjective statistical method for comparing distributions is quite different from that commonly used in data analysis, because it rejects the basic tenets underlying the practice of hypothesis test- ing. In its place, proper scoring rules for forecast distributions are used to assess the values o…
Completing the logarithmic scoring rule for assessing probability distributions
2012
We propose and motivate an expanded version of the logarithmic score for forecasting distributions, termed the Total Log score. It incorporates the usual logarithmic score, which is recognised as incomplete and has been mistakenly associated with the likelihood principle. The expectation of the Total Log score equals the Negentropy plus the Negextropy of the distribution. We examine both discrete and continuous forms of the scoring rule, and we discuss issues of scaling for scoring assessments. The analysis suggests the dual tracking of the quadratic score along with the usual log score when assessing the qualities of probability distributions. An application to the sequential scoring of f…
Interpreting Connexive Principles in Coherence-Based Probability Logic
2021
We present probabilistic approaches to check the validity of selected connexive principles within the setting of coherence. Connexive logics emerged from the intuition that conditionals of the form If \(\mathord {\thicksim }A\), then A, should not hold, since the conditional’s antecedent \(\mathord {\thicksim }A\) contradicts its consequent A. Our approach covers this intuition by observing that for an event A the only coherent probability assessment on the conditional event \(A|\bar{A}\) is \(p(A|\bar{A})=0\). Moreover, connexive logics aim to capture the intuition that conditionals should express some “connection” between the antecedent and the consequent or, in terms of inferences, valid…
SCORING ALTERNATIVE FORECAST DISTRIBUTIONS: COMPLETING THE KULLBACK DISTANCE COMPLEX
2018
We develop two surprising new results regarding the use of proper scoring rules for evaluating the predictive quality of two alternative sequential forecast distributions. Both of the proponents prefer to be awarded a score derived from the other's distribution rather than a score awarded on the basis of their own. A Pareto optimal exchange of their scoring outcomes provides the basis for a comparison of forecast quality that is preferred by both forecasters, and also evades a feature of arbitrariness inherent in using the forecasters' own achieved scores. The well-known Kullback divergence, used as a measure of information, is evaluated via the entropies in the two forecast distributions a…