Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Substitution systems and nonextensive statistics
2015
Abstract Substitution systems evolve in time by generating sequences of symbols from a finite alphabet: At a certain iteration step, the existing symbols are systematically replaced by blocks of N k symbols also within the alphabet (with N k , a natural number, being the length of the k th block of the substitution). The dynamics of these systems leads naturally to fractals and self-similarity. By using B -calculus (Garcia-Morales, 2012) universal maps for deterministic substitution systems both of constant and non-constant length, are formulated in 1D. It is then shown how these systems can be put in direct correspondence with Tsallis entropy. A ‘Second Law of Thermodynamics’ is also prove…
Directed random walk on the backbone of an oriented percolation cluster
2012
We consider a directed random walk on the backbone of the infinite cluster generated by supercritical oriented percolation, or equivalently the space-time embedding of the ``ancestral lineage'' of an individual in the stationary discrete-time contact process. We prove a law of large numbers and an annealed central limit theorem (i.e., averaged over the realisations of the cluster) using a regeneration approach. Furthermore, we obtain a quenched central limit theorem (i.e.\ for almost any realisation of the cluster) via an analysis of joint renewals of two independent walks on the same cluster.
Noise decomposition in random telegraph signals using the wavelet transform
2007
Abstract By using the continuous wavelet transform with Haar basis the second-order properties of the wavelet coefficients are derived for the random telegraph signal (RTS) and for the 1 / f noise which is obtained by summation of many RTSs. The correlation structure of the Haar wavelet coefficients for these processes is found. For the wavelet spectrum of the 1 / f noise some characteristics related to the distribution of the relaxation times of the RTS are derived. A statistical test based on the characterization of the time evolution of the scalogram is developed, which allows to detect non-stationarity in the times τ 's which compose the 1 / f process and to identify the time scales of …
Mean square rate of convergence for random walk approximation of forward-backward SDEs
2020
AbstractLet (Y,Z) denote the solution to a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). If one constructs a random walk$B^n$from the underlying Brownian motionBby Skorokhod embedding, one can show$L_2$-convergence of the corresponding solutions$(Y^n,Z^n)$to$(Y, Z).$We estimate the rate of convergence based on smoothness properties, especially for a terminal condition function in$C^{2,\alpha}$. The proof relies on an approximative representation of$Z^n$and uses the concept of discretized Malliavin calculus. Moreover, we use growth and smoothness properties of the partial differential equation associated to the FBSDE, as well as of the finite difference equations associated to t…
Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points.
2008
We present a model for estimation of temperature effects on mortality that is able to capture jointly the typical features of every temperature-death relationship, that is, nonlinearity and delayed effect of cold and heat over a few days. Using a segmented approximation along with a doubly penalized spline-based distributed lag parameterization, estimates and relevant standard errors of the cold- and heat-related risks and the heat tolerance are provided. The model is applied to data from Milano, Italy.
Analyzing Temperature Effects on Mortality Within theREnvironment: The Constrained Segmented Distributed Lag Parameterization
2010
Here we present and discuss the R package modTempEff including a set of functions aimed at modelling temperature effects on mortality with time series data. The functions fit a particular log linear model which allows to capture the two main features of mortality- temperature relationships: nonlinearity and distributed lag effect. Penalized splines and segmented regression constitute the core of the modelling framework. We briefly review the model and illustrate the functions throughout a simulated dataset.
A consistent modification of a test for independence based on the empirical characteristic function
1998
A modification of a test for independence based on the empirical characteristic function is investigated. The initial test is not consistent in the general case. The modification makes the test always consistent and asymptotically distribution free. It is based on a special transformation of the data.
On the use of asymptotic expansion in computing the null distribution of page's L-statistic
1989
Suppose that each out of n randomized complete blocks is obtained by observing a jointly continuous random variable taking values in Rk. Page's L-statistic is given then as a sum of i.i.d. lattice variables with finite moments of any order. Applying a well-known theorem on asymptotic expansions for the distribution function of such a sum yields higher order approximations to the significance probability of any observed value of L. The formula obtained by discarding terms smaller than o(n –1) is still very simple to use. Yet, due to it's strong analytical basis, it can be expected to provide substantial improvement on the traditional normal approximation. The results of extensive numerical i…
Cotas inferiores para el QAP-Arbol
1985
The Tree-QAP is a special case of the Quadratic Assignment Problem where the flows not equal zero form a tree. No condition is required for the distance matrix. In this paper we present an integer programming formulation for the Tree-QAP. We use this formulation to construct four Lagrangean relaxations that produce several lower bounds for this problem. To solve one of the relaxed problems we present a Dynamic Programming algorithm which is a generalization of the algorithm of this type that gives a lower bound for the Travelling Salesman Problem. A comparison is given between the lower bounds obtained by each ralaxation for examples with size from 12 to 25.
Mixed Non-Parametric and Parametric Estimation Techniques in R Package etasFLP for Earthquakes’ Description
2017
etasFLP is an R package which fits an epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to an earthquake catalog; non-parametric background seismicity can be estimated through a forward predictive likelihood approach, while parametric components of triggered seismicity are estimated through maximum likelihood; estimation steps are alternated until convergence is obtained and for each event the probability of being a background event is estimated. The package includes options which allow its wide use. Methods for plot, summary and profile are defined for the main output class object. The paper provides examples of the package's use with description of the underlying R and Fortran routines.