Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
The multichoice consistent value
2000
We consider multichoice NTU games, i.e., cooperative NTU games in which players can participate in the game with several levels of activity. For these games, we define and characterize axiomatically the multichoice consistent value, which is a generalization of the consistent NTU value for NTU games and of the multichoice value for multichoice TU games. Moreover, we show that this value coincides with the consistent NTU value of a replicated NTU game and we provide a probabilistic interpretation.
Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why "too" low (high) for "so" long?
2022
We study the behaviour of real interest rate gaps-i.e. periods of real interest rates above (below) the natural interest rate-and link their length with a set of key observable determinants. Using quarterly data for 13 OECD countries over (close to) the last 60 years, we find that global risk-taking, CPI inflation, (un)conventional monetary policy, and income redistribution crucially shape the duration of both events. However, while labour-related supply-side factors appear to affect the length of positive interest rate gaps, the adoption of an inflation targeting regime and the current account balance seem to explain the duration of negative interest rate gaps. Our results suggest that the…
Should all microfinance institutions mobilize microsavings? Evidence from economies of scope
2014
Published version of an article from the journal: Empirical Economics. Also available from the publisher on SpringetLink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-014-0861-3 We extend a recently developed generalized local polynomial estimator into a semiparametric smooth coefficient framework to estimate a generalized cost function. The advantage of the generalized local polynomial approach is that we can simultaneously choose the degree of polynomial for each continuous nonparametric regressor and the bandwidths via data-driven methods. We provide estimates of scope economies from the joint production of microloans and microdeposits for a dataset of Microfinance Institutions from over 50 countrie…
Financial distress and real economic activity in Lithuania: a Granger causality test based on mixed-frequency VAR
2020
In this paper, we extend the monthly financial stress index for Lithuania, computed by the European Central Bank, to a daily frequency and we also include banking sector stress among its constituents, beyond bond, equity and foreign exchange markets. We investigate the causal relationship between the daily financial stress index and monthly industrial production growth, using a Granger causality test applied to a mixed-frequency VAR. Our results suggest evidence of Granger causality from financial stress to industrial production growth once the index is enriched by daily observations from the financial markets. Our findings, based on impulse response analysis, confirm the negative effect of…
Converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits
2016
AbstractThis paper deals with life care annuities, i.e. bundled products comprising a life annuity and long-term care insurance. It aims to assess the cost of converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits using a pre-existing public pay-as-you-go pension scheme. With this objective in mind, we present an actuarial method based on array calculus for valuing this type of life care annuity. The health dynamics of the annuitant rely on a reversible illness-death multistate framework. The paper contains a numerical example in which mortality and disability assumptions are based on data from the USA and Australia, although this should be viewed simply as an illustrat…
Entry with two correlated signals : the case of industrial espionage and its positive competitive effects
2021
Recent advances in information and communication technologies have increased the incentives for firms to acquire information about rivals. These advances may have major implications for market entry because they make it easier for potential entrants to gather valuable information about, for example, an incumbent’s cost structure. However, little theoretical research has actually analyzed this question. This paper advances the literature by extending a one-sided asymmetric information version of Milgrom and Roberts’ (1982) limit pricing model. Here, the entrant is allowed access to an intelligence system (IS) of a certain precision that generates a noisy signal on the incumbent’s cost struct…
The equal collective gains value in cooperative games
2021
AbstractThe property of equal collective gains means that each player should obtain the same benefit from the cooperation of the other players in the game. We show that this property jointly with efficiency characterize a new solution, called the equal collective gains value (ECG-value). We introduce a new class of games, the average productivity games, for which the ECG-value is an imputation. For a better understanding of the new value, we also provide four alternative characterizations of it, and a negotiation model that supports it in subgame perfect equilibrium.
A heuristic method for estimating attribute importance by measuring choice time in a ranking task
2012
The evaluation of a product or service in terms of its attributes has been broadly studied in marketing, management and decision sciences. However, methods for finding important attributes have theoretical and practical limitations. The former are related to the selection of the most appropriate model; the latter are due to large number of variables that affect the specific experimental context. This study aims to present a new methodology that captures attribute preferences from a respondent and in particular, by using the choice time in a ranking task, it allows to indirectly obtain the importance weights for several tested attributes through a simple, fast and inexpensive procedure. More…
A spatially filtered mixture of β-convergence regressions for EU regions, 1980–2002
2007
Assessing regional growth and convergence across Europe is a matter of primary relevance. Empirical models that do not account for structural heterogeneities and spatial effects may face serious misspecification problems. In this work, a mixture regression approach is applied to the beta-convergence model, in order to produce an endogenous selection of regional growth patterns. A priori choices, such as North-South or centre-periphery divisions, are avoided. In addition to this, we deal with the spatial dependence existing in the data, applying a local filter to the data. The results indicate that spatial effects matter, and either absolute, conditional, or club convergence, if extended to …
Une lecture de la crise à la lumière des crises passées.
2010
19 * Les auteurs sont economiste et economiste principale au Departement des Affaires Economiques de l’OCDE. Ils remercient K. SchmidtHebbel, J. Coppel, B. Cournede, R. Ahrend, V. Koen, J.L. Schneider, L. Willard et beaucoup d’autres collegues, en particulier les responsables pays, pour les commentaires et les discussions fructueuses qu’ils ont eus avec eux. Les auteurs remercient aussi trois referes anonymes pour leur relecture approfondie et leurs suggestions. Ce document n’engage pas l’OCDE ni les pays membres. ECONOMIE