Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Evaluation of Insurance Products with Guarantee in Incomplete Markets
2008
Abstract Life insurance products are usually equipped with minimum guarantee and bonus provision options. The pricing of such claims is of vital importance for the insurance industry. Risk management, strategic asset allocation, and product design depend on the correct evaluation of the written options. Also regulators are interested in such issues since they have to be aware of the possible scenarios that the overall industry will face. Pricing techniques based on the Black & Scholes paradigm are often used, however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met. To overcome Black & Scholes limitations, we develop a stochastic programming model to determine the fair price of the mini…
Uniform measure density condition and game regularity for tug-of-war games
2018
We show that a uniform measure density condition implies game regularity for all 2 < p < ∞ in a stochastic game called “tug-of-war with noise”. The proof utilizes suitable choices of strategies combined with estimates for the associated stopping times and density estimates for the sum of independent and identically distributed random vectors. peerReviewed
Empirical investigation of stock price dynamics in an emerging market
1999
Abstract We study the development of an emerging market – the Budapest Stock Exchange – by investigating the time evolution of some statistical properties of heavily traded stocks. Moving quarter by quarter over a period of two and a half years we analyze the scaling properties of the standard deviation of intra-day log-price changes. We observe scaling using both seconds and ticks as units of time. For the investigated stocks a Levy shape is a good approximation to the probability density function of tick-by-tick log-price changes in each quarter: the index of the distribution follows an increasing trend, suggesting it could be used as a measure of market efficiency.
Stock market dynamics and turbulence: parallel analysis of fluctuation phenomena
1997
Abstract We report analogies and differences between the fluctuations in an economic index and the fluctuations in velocity of a fluid in a fully turbulent state. Specifically, we systematically compare (i) the statistical properties of the S&P 500 cash index recorded during the period January 84–December 89 with (ii) the statistical properties of the velocity of turbulent air measured in the atmospheric surface layer about 6 m above a wheat canopy in the Connecticut Agricultural Research Station. We find non-Gaussian statistics, and intermittency, for both processes (i) and (ii) but the deviation from a Gaussian probability density function are different for stock market dynamics and turbu…
Accounting for previous events to model and predict traffic accidents at the road segment level: A study in Valencia (Spain)
2022
Abstract Predicting the occurrence of traffic accidents is essential for establishing preventive measures and reducing the impact of traffic accidents. In particular, it is fundamental to make predictions using fine spatio-temporal units. In this paper, the daily risk of traffic accident occurrence across the road network of Valencia (Spain) is modeled through logistic regression models. The spatio-temporal dependence between the observations is accounted for through the inclusion of lagged binary covariates representing the previous occurrence of a traffic accident within a spatio-temporal window centered at each combination of day and segment of the network. A temporal distance of 28 days…
Weighting Elementary Prices in Consumer Price Index Construction Using Spatial Autocorrelation
2013
The Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) are used in current economic systems to measure inflation. When constructing CPIs, however, official institutions have systematically overlooked the spatial dimension of elementary prices. Ignoring the fact that prices are collected at geographical locations implicitly implies considering prices as spatially independent, when in fact they are not. To solve this problem, this article proposes to weight basic price data by taking into account the spatial correlation they display. The weighted geometric and arithmetic means suggested generalize and improve the simple geometric and arithmetic means currently in use.
Sample-size calculation and reestimation for a semiparametric analysis of recurrent event data taking robust standard errors into account
2014
In some clinical trials, the repeated occurrence of the same type of event is of primary interest and the Andersen-Gill model has been proposed to analyze recurrent event data. Existing methods to determine the required sample size for an Andersen-Gill analysis rely on the strong assumption that all heterogeneity in the individuals' risk to experience events can be explained by known covariates. In practice, however, this assumption might be violated due to unknown or unmeasured covariates affecting the time to events. In these situations, the use of a robust variance estimate in calculating the test statistic is highly recommended to assure the type I error rate, but this will in turn decr…
Price convergence of peripheral European countries on the way to the EMU: A time series approach
2000
This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.
k-Step shape estimators based on spatial signs and ranks
2010
In this paper, the shape matrix estimators based on spatial sign and rank vectors are considered. The estimators considered here are slight modifications of the estimators introduced in Dümbgen (1998) and Oja and Randles (2004) and further studied for example in Sirkiä et al. (2009). The shape estimators are computed using pairwise differences of the observed data, therefore there is no need to estimate the location center of the data. When the estimator is based on signs, the use of differences also implies that the estimators have the so called independence property if the estimator, that is used as an initial estimator, has it. The influence functions and limiting distributions of the es…
Visualizing categorical data in ViSta
2003
The modules in the statistical package ViSta related to categorical data analysis are presented These modules are: visualization of frequency data with mosaic and bar plots, correspondence analysis, multiple correspondence analysis and loglinear analysis. All these methods are implemented in ViSta with a big emphasis on plots and graphical representations of data, as well as interactivity for the user with the system. These provide a system that has shown to be easy, useful, and powerful, both for novice and experienced users.